US monetary policy

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Hello list,

 

Here is a story on Bloomberg about a new IMF report that explicitly states that the dollar may still have further to fall. The IMF confirms that there is a carry trade going on involving low cost borrowing in dollars in the USA with the funds being reinvested abroad in higher yielding assets. As some have warned, if the dollar were to strengthen, this would result in losses for the speculators. However, the story also suggests US interest rates are likely to remain week until mid 2010 which is consistent with the inference being drawn last week based on the transit of Jupiter through the sign of Aquarius and 8th house in the SAMVA USA chart (late December 2009 to early May 2010). If so, the carry trade could continune until the interest rates would begin to rise. Once US interest rates were seen to be rising and the economy reviving, the dollar

could strenghten quite a bit. While it is notoriously hard to forecast asset price changes due to the global influences, we can at least say that based on an analysis of the SAMVA USA chart, that the dollar is expected to strengthen already from the third week of November 2009 as the present transit affliction by 6th lord Jupiter of the natal Sun in the SAMVA USA chart lifts and transit Sun becomes strong in transit.

 

IMF Signals Record-Low U.S. Rates Funding Global ‘Carry Trade’

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund signalled record low U.S. interest rates are funding global “carry trades†and the dollar is still overvalued as concerns mount that new financial imbalances are forming. “There are indications that the U.S. dollar is now serving as the funding currency for carry trades,†the IMF said in a report published on Nov. 7. “These trades may be contributing to upward pressure on the euro and some emerging-economy currencies.†While the dollar “has moved closer to medium-run equilibrium,†it is still “on the strong side.†With investors able to borrow at near-zero rates in the U.S., some economists are concerned that markets may become distorted as traders plow those funds into riskier assets. Nouriel Roubini, the economist who forecast the financial crisis in 2006, said Nov. 4 that investors are

milking the “mother of all carry trades.†“U.S. interest rates look to remain near zero through the first half of 2010 at the very least, which provides traders plenty of time to continue with carry trades,†said Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at the online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “Labor-market conditions are still very challenging in the U.S., and the rest of the world is improving faster. The dollar remains the weakest link.â€

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=a5ritflpCi34 & pos=6

 

Thor

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Mon, November 2, 2009 3:02:18 PM More on predictions [1 Attachment]

[Attachment(s) from Cosmologer included below]

 

 

 

Hello list,

 

There are still considerable worries about the stability of the financial system. Nouriel Roubini, who accurately predicted the global financial crisis, has in recent weeks been warning of another financial calamity, involving the re-appreciation of the US dollar.

 

Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust

November 1 2009 18:44

"Since March there has been a massive rally in all sorts of risky assets – equities, oil, energy and commodity prices...At the same time, the dollar has weakened sharply....while the US and global economy have begun a modest recovery, asset prices have gone through the roof since March in a major and synchronised rally...one day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinated asset bust ever...the dollar cannot fall to zero and at some point it will stabilise...But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash...." http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a5b3216-c70b-11de-bb6f-00144feab49a.html

 

With Jupiter set to remain weak in transit until it enters Pisces on May 3, 2010, the monetary policy is likely to remain weak or ineffectual. One reading would be that interest rates would not be likely to rise much in the coming months, which would serve as a trigger. However, next summer, when serious afflictions take place in the SAMVA USA chart, involving

 

- transit 6th lord Jupiter in early Pisces and 9th house will be in mutual aspect to natal 6th lord Jupiter in Scorpio and 5th house, from April 29, 2010 to February 2, 2011, becoming exact on May 27, 2010. This aspect suggests conflict or problems with the indications of Jupiter and the 6th house, including the management of monetary policy and financial market activity.

- transit sub-period lord, 8th lord Saturn in early Virgo and 3rd house, aspects natal 6th lord Jupiter from February 21, 2010 to August 26, 2010. This aspect becomes exact on June 26, 2010. The aspect is suggestive of violence and disruption for the indications of Jupiter and the 6th house.

- transit Saturn aspects transit Jupiter from April 30 to September 13, 2010, with the aspect becoming exact on August 16, 2010. The contact between these heavyweights of the planetary cabinet suggests violence or disasters.

 

To add to the strain or problems of the abovementioned aspects is the very serious transit to natal aspects of stationary Ketu in the MEP of the 12th house to its natal counterpart in Libra and 4th house, as well as transit stationary Rahu in the 6th house to its natal counterpart in the MEP of the 10th house. Major problems could be expected from this aspect, with implications for the the financial markets and economy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jupiter

Saturn

Rahu

Ketu

 

4.1.2010

2°Aq58'

10°Vi34'

27°Sg06'D

27°Ge06'D

 

3.2.2010

9°Aq38'

10°Vi17'R

26°Sg55'

26°Ge55'

 

5.3.2010

16°Aq50'

8°Vi35'R

25°Sg27'

25°Ge27'

 

4.4.2010

23°Aq56'

6°Vi16'R

22°Sg35'

22°Ge35'

 

4.5.2010

0°Pi22'

4°Vi25'R

19°Sg44'D

19°Ge44'D

 

3.6.2010

5°Pi32'

3°Vi50'

18°Sg15'D

18°Ge15'D

 

3.7.2010

8°Pi43'

4°Vi44'

17°Sg57'

17°Ge57'

 

2.8.2010

9°Pi15'R

6°Vi58'

17°Sg34'

17°Ge34'

 

1.9.2010

6°Pi58'R

10°Vi06'

16°Sg00'

16°Ge00'

 

1.10.2010

3°Pi07'R

13°Vi43'

13°Sg12'D

13°Ge12'D

 

31.10.2010

0°Pi05'R

17°Vi21'

10°Sg26'

10°Ge26'

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologersamva Sent: Sat, August 8, 2009 10:44:05 PM Blog: TENSE AUTUMN AHEAD

 

 

Hello dear list members,

 

I have written the following article on my blog:

Saturday, August 8, 2009

 

TENSE AUTUMN AHEAD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We live in interesting times and this autumn will be no exception. The coming transit station of Jupiter at 23° 10’ Capricorn will be interesting for the fact that it will connect into the charts of many important countries, including the USA, Israel, Iran, UK, India and Russia, suggesting some international tension at that time.

 

To read more:

http://cosmologer.blogspot.com/

 

Thor

 

 

Attachment(s) from Cosmologer

1 of 1 Photo(s)

 

 

 

 

SAMVA