How likely is a 'global collapse'?

[Guest guest]

Hello list,

 

Here is an interesting report in todays papers:

 

Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for 'global collapse'

6:12PM GMT 18 Nov 2009

Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

<snip>

Mr Fermon said his report had electrified clients on both sides of the Atlantic. "Everybody wants to know what the impact will be. A lot of hedge funds and bankers are worried," he said.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html

 

It seems concern over government debt is the culprit of such worries, as reported in this September 24, 2009 story

 

'Debt levels risk another crisis'

8:43PM BST 24 Sep 2009

High levels of government debt around the world remain the most likely trigger of the next economic downturn, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund has warned.

 

 

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/6228450/Debt-levels-risk-another-crisis.html

 

This raises the question of how likely such an event would be. While next year will likely not be easy, at least based on an analysis of the SAMVA USA chart, an outright collapse is not seen.

 

Thor