What Happens If Greece Really Defaults?

[Guest guest]

I just read this headline:

 

http://finance./news/What-Happens-If-Greece-Really-usnews-3747443040.ht\

ml?x=0

 

Can someone provide their input on this scenario?

[Guest guest]

Hello [name],

 

There are plenty of investor newsletters that offer theories and conjecture on this point. As for astrology, a reading of the transit and period influences in the SAMVA USA chart suggests that while transit Jupiter as 6th lord of debt is in the 8th house, until early May 2010, there will be concerns about the US debt, which may be linked to the debt of other countries.

 

Minor tremors are already being felt. Yesterday, there was a news story about a possible debt downgrading by the major rating agencies of the USA and UK. This is almost unheard of. At the same time, the yield on 5 year debt began to rise. This is being interpreted as first wind of the US Federal Reserve's (central bank) effort to reign in the huge liquidity infusion into the financial system and economy that began in 2007 when financial turbulence emerged, which ended in a crash in the autumn 2008. The liquidity infusion has helped avoid a deep freeze of the economy, but has raised the federal debt to alarming levels, which would be consistent with the Venus major period, with 4th lord Venus placed in the 6th house of debt (April 1996 - April 2016). In itself, higher medium to long term market determined interest rates are expected to have an effect to curtail economic growth moving forward, which is consistent with the Saturn sub-period

(Feb. 2009 - April 2012) - sluggish economic growth.

 

If the US economy, which is the centre of global financial capitalism is suffering, it is not strange that other countries like the PIIGS are hurting too. All have been caught left footed as the financial system seized up, with a recession unfolding with rising unemployment. The drop in Treasury incomes and rise in outlays with the cost of liquidity infusions added to the bill, has meant that public debt is soaring. The Treasuries of smaller countries in Europe that were already straining financially due to bloated bureaucracies and lack of fiscal discipline are now caught in a vice of high debt that the market won't gladly finance at low interest rates. They are therefore having to adopt a crash course in fiscal discipline. Will they manage? Will the bigger economies of Germany and France step in and save them? Big question. There are no authentic charts available yet for these countries, but some might find it of interest to explore the

tentative chart for Germany, earlier discussed on this list, as a clue to its actions. The PIIGS have one thing going for them. They have the euro, the common currency, backed by the European Central Bank. However, unlike the dollar, the euro lacks the backing of a single federal government. In this way, it is more comparable to the Continental dollar of the 1780s, which gave rise to the saying "not worth a Continental", after the British flooded the new states with counterfeit. Fortunately, there is no such shock to deal with. That said, there is an economic recession of historic proportion, which is undermining confidence in the euro project, due to its shortcomings. Will the project fail or be strengthened with a move to fedearl tax and spend reforms? My bet is on the latter. History can repeat itself (or rhyme).

 

The transits for the USA suggest the summer of 2010 will have its fair share of fiscal difficulties as Saturn, as 8th lord of obstacles and endings -- and sub-period lord -- and Jupiter will be in opposition aspect. This is not good news for the indications of Jupiter, including the debt. Fortunately, the aspect is slightly faster moving than during the conjunctions of 1940 and 1980. As Saturn rules working people, labour unrest is also highly likely during this aspect.

 

See also the predictions for 2010 on cosmologer.blogspot.com

 

Thor

 

 

 

matrixdutch <matrixdutchSAMVA Sent: Mon, March 15, 2010 3:31:27 PM What Happens If Greece Really Defaults?I just read this headline:http://finance./news/What-Happens-If-Greece-Really-usnews-3747443040.html?x=0Can someone provide their input on this scenario?

[Guest guest]

Hello list,

 

Here is news of some joint EU financial backing for Greece should its attempt to shore up its public finances fail to assuage the market concerns.

 

EU Lays Groundwork for Greek Lifeline to Shore Up Scarred Euro

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- European finance ministers laid the groundwork for a financial lifeline to debt-stricken Greece, breaking a taboo against aid to cash-strapped governments in order to avert a crisis for the euro. Officials from the 16 countries using the currency worked out a strategy for emergency loans in case Greece’s plan for 4.8 billion euros ($6.6 billion) in tax increases and wage cuts fails to stave off fiscal disaster.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=a6LrzQ9Wqc68 & pos=7

 

Of course, this leaves open the question of what next and what about the PIIG? Hopefully, it won't come to that. That said, these are historic times.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Tue, March 16, 2010 5:19:31 AMRe: What Happens If Greece Really Defaults?

 

 

Hello [name],

 

There are plenty of investor newsletters that offer theories and conjecture on this point. As for astrology, a reading of the transit and period influences in the SAMVA USA chart suggests that while transit Jupiter as 6th lord of debt is in the 8th house, until early May 2010, there will be concerns about the US debt, which may be linked to the debt of other countries.

 

Minor tremors are already being felt. Yesterday, there was a news story about a possible debt downgrading by the major rating agencies of the USA and UK. This is almost unheard of. At the same time, the yield on 5 year debt began to rise. This is being interpreted as first wind of the US Federal Reserve's (central bank) effort to reign in the huge liquidity infusion into the financial system and economy that began in 2007 when financial turbulence emerged, which ended in a crash in the autumn 2008. The liquidity infusion has helped avoid a deep freeze of the economy, but has raised the federal debt to alarming levels, which would be consistent with the Venus major period, with 4th lord Venus placed in the 6th house of debt (April 1996 - April 2016). In itself, higher medium to long term market determined interest rates are expected to have an effect to curtail economic growth moving forward, which is consistent with the Saturn sub-period

(Feb. 2009 - April 2012) - sluggish economic growth.

 

If the US economy, which is the centre of global financial capitalism is suffering, it is not strange that other countries like the PIIGS are hurting too. All have been caught left footed as the financial system seized up, with a recession unfolding with rising unemployment. The drop in Treasury incomes and rise in outlays with the cost of liquidity infusions added to the bill, has meant that public debt is soaring. The Treasuries of smaller countries in Europe that were already straining financially due to bloated bureaucracies and lack of fiscal discipline are now caught in a vice of high debt that the market won't gladly finance at low interest rates. They are therefore having to adopt a crash course in fiscal discipline. Will they manage? Will the bigger economies of Germany and France step in and save them? Big question. There are no authentic charts available yet for these countries, but some might find it of interest to explore the

tentative chart for Germany, earlier discussed on this list, as a clue to its actions. The PIIGS have one thing going for them. They have the euro, the common currency, backed by the European Central Bank. However, unlike the dollar, the euro lacks the backing of a single federal government. In this way, it is more comparable to the Continental dollar of the 1780s, which gave rise to the saying "not worth a Continental", after the British flooded the new states with counterfeit. Fortunately, there is no such shock to deal with. That said, there is an economic recession of historic proportion, which is undermining confidence in the euro project, due to its shortcomings. Will the project fail or be strengthened with a move to fedearl tax and spend reforms? My bet is on the latter. History can repeat itself (or rhyme).

 

The transits for the USA suggest the summer of 2010 will have its fair share of fiscal difficulties as Saturn, as 8th lord of obstacles and endings -- and sub-period lord -- and Jupiter will be in opposition aspect. This is not good news for the indications of Jupiter, including the debt. Fortunately, the aspect is slightly faster moving than during the conjunctions of 1940 and 1980. As Saturn rules working people, labour unrest is also highly likely during this aspect.

 

See also the predictions for 2010 on cosmologer.blogspot.com

 

Thor

 

 

 

matrixdutch <matrixdutchSAMVA Sent: Mon, March 15, 2010 3:31:27 PM What Happens If Greece Really Defaults?I just read this headline:http://finance./news/What-Happens-If-Greece-Really-usnews-3747443040.html?x=0Can someone provide their input on this scenario?

[Guest guest]

Hello dear list members,

 

Many US and UK economists have been long term pessimists on the future of the single currency project in Europe, the euro. Milton Friedman is perhaps the most famous one. Bernard Connolly wrote the "Rotten Heart of Europe: The Dirty War for Europe's Money" in the 1990s, predicting the demise of the project. Now a broadside from Martin Feldstein, who has been a critic for two decades. He thinks Greece will out of necessity drop out of the Euro. Clearly, those economists believe that the determination of the political class in Europe is not enough to ensure the success of this project.

 

Feldstein Sees Greece Euro-Exit Pressures as Deficit Plan Fails

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Harvard University Professor Martin Feldstein, who warned almost two decades ago that the euro would prove an “economic liability,†said Greece’s austerity plan will fail and the country may quit the single currency to fix its fiscal crisis. Under pressure from investors and fellow policy makers, Prime Minister George Papandreou’s government is striving to knock four percentage points off its budget gap this year from 12.7 percent of gross domestic product and has vowed to meet the EU’s 3 percent limit in 2012 for the first time since 2006. “The idea that Greece can go from a 12 percent deficit now to a 3 percent deficit two years from now seems fantasy,†Feldstein, an adviser to U.S. presidents since Ronald Reagan, said in a March 13 interview in Geneva. “The alternatives are to

default in some way or to leave, or both.†His diagnosis clashes with that of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who calls Greece’s strategy “convincing†and rejects as “absurd†any speculation it might leave the euro zone. Investors nevertheless aren’t ruling out Feldstein’s analysis. Billionaire George Soros said last month that the euro “may not survive,†and credit default swaps indicate a 22 percent chance Greece will default within five years, up from 16 percent a year ago. The judgment of Feldstein, 70, a former contender to chair the Federal Reserve, marks his latest broadside against the single currency five years after he said its rules generated a “very strong bias toward large chronic fiscal deficits†and more than a year since he first suggested the 16-nation bloc may

splinter.

 

‘Absolutely’ Won’t Break Up

He “has more reason to think he’s right than five years ago, and it’s natural to talk about limitations,†said Philip Lane, an economics professor at Trinity College Dublin. “But the euro area will absolutely not break up.†Greek workers disrupted transportation services and tried to storm parliament on March 5 as lawmakers passed 4.8 billion euros ($6.6 billion) of extra deficit reductions, including lower wages for public employees. Such cutbacks will continue to run into resistance as unemployment is propelled above December’s 10.2 percent and recent declines in the country’s bond yields are tied to cheerleading by European policy makers, Feldstein said. Greece’s 10-year bond

yielded 6.16 percent as of 4:57 p.m. yesterday in London, a percentage point lower than Jan. 28. The premium investors demand to hold the bonds over their German equivalents narrowed to 297 basis points from 396 basis points.

 

‘Polite Way’

Greece will ultimately need to mull alternative ways to tackle its crisis, possibly by finding a “polite way†to default, Feldstein said. That might include persuading investors to swap maturing bonds for longer-term assets at lower interest rates. Another option would be leaving the euro area to devalue and then returning once the fiscal weaknesses are solved. “I don’t know that there’s a good solution to this problem,†Feldstein said. Pulling out and re-entering is impractical and gives other countries an excuse not to restrain deficits and improve their competitiveness within the euro zone, said Charles Wyplosz, a former student of Feldstein’s and director of the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies in Geneva. While leaving the bloc and devaluing its currency would likely enable Greece to boost exports, the so-called holiday strategy would also require spending cuts, lower real wages and tax increases, Feldstein said. “Put all that together, and it doesn’t look like countries are going to eagerly line up to do it,†he said.

 

Belt-Tightening

European governments this week laid the groundwork for a financial lifeline to Greece that would provide emergency loans if needed, breaking a taboo against aid to cash-strapped nations to avert a deeper crisis for the euro. Standard & Poor’s yesterday removed Greece from “creditwatch negative,†lowering the threat of a further credit-rating cut. Greece has a BBB+ rating after S & P downgraded it from A- in December. While a bailout would be a “relatively painless solution,†Feldstein said it would generate opposition among voters and risk other nations demanding similar assistance. Feldstein’s opinions command attention because of his career at the hearts of both academia and politics. This experience catapulted him to the brink of the Fed chairmanship five years ago before

President George W. Bush picked Ben S. Bernanke. Feldstein received the John Bates Clark Medal in 1977 as the U.S. economist under the age of 40 who made the most significant contribution to economic thought and knowledge, then ran the National Bureau of Economic Research, arbiter of U.S. business cycles, for most of the next 30 years until 2008.

 

Former Students

He chaired Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, counseled Bush’s White House campaign and now sits on President Barack Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Among his former students are Lawrence Summers and Lawrence Lindsey, the current and former directors of the White House’s National Economic Council. “Marty’s a very important economist,†said Glenn Hubbard, dean of Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York, who was also taught by Feldstein and chaired Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers. “He’s a great scholar, but what distinguishes him is that his ideas have practical impact, too.†As long ago as June 1992, Feldstein wrote in the Economist that “economic analysis†didn’t justify a single European currency. In his most-famous contribution to

the debate, he wrote in Foreign Affairs in 1997 that “war within Europe itself would be abhorrent but not impossible†under the euro.

 

‘EMU and War’

Many economists read his comment ahead of the birth of Economic and Monetary Union as a forecast that war would break out. Feldstein denies that, saying an editor wrote the headline -- “EMU and War†-- and he was arguing that the euro wasn’t a guarantee against such a conflict and might fan cross-border political differences. While Feldstein says he likes Trichet “a lot and I think it’s mutual,†he notes the ECB president often points out that skeptics doubted the euro would exist or last. “You don’t find any of that in my writings,†he said. Even so, Lars Jonung, an adviser to the European Commission in Brussels and co-author of a January paper on how American economists viewed the euro through the 1990s, says Feldstein is a “consistent pessimist, and so far he’s been proved

wrong.â€

 

Well-Established

The currency is well-established and hasn’t sparked political turmoil, trade has increased and inflation differentials in the euro area are similar to those for U.S. states, Jonung said in his Econ Journal Watch study. Greece’s measures and the response of EU governments will eventually strengthen monetary union, he added. Feldstein counters that global growth during the currency’s first decade helped mask its flaws, such as the mismatch of spreading uniform interest and exchange rates over diverse economies that lack fiscal discipline. His criticism doesn’t stop him from predicting the euro will appreciate against the dollar as investors punish the U.S. trade imbalance. The euro has fallen about 4 percent against the U.S. currency this year and traded at $1.37 yesterday. Feldstein turned his attention to the implications of the euro for budgets in 2005, when he said a decision by the euro’s members to ease fiscal curbs left the “way open to much larger sustained deficits.†By November 2008, he was writing that diverging bond yields within the region signaled investors “regard a breakup as a real possibility.†Two months later, as the euro marked its 10th anniversary, Feldstein told the American Economic Association the currency faced an “important testing time†and countries may ultimately leave it to regain control of their economies.

 

‘Proved Wrong’

“American economists such as Marty have been proved wrong for a decade and will be proved wrong for the next decade,†said Wyplosz, who predicts that a Greece exit would trigger a “total collapse of the Greek economy.†Feldstein stands by his analysis that it’s not “unthinkable†some countries may choose life outside the euro area. Leaving is “certainly possible, and in part it can happen even if all the economic advice to a government is, ‘You shouldn’t do this,’†he said. “Politicians don’t always listen to their economists.â€

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aPuJMOYR9tR0 & pos=3

 

There are several possible birth chart available for the EU which have been explored on SAMVA list over the years. Interestingly, many of them have come up with Virgo as the rising sign. If one of them is authentic, it would suggest a difficult time is ahead in April and May, when 1st lord Mercury will transit Aquarius and the 8th house. With 6th lord Saturn residing in Virgo and the 1st house, its indications become weakened as a result. Meanwhile, 4th lord Jupiter will transit Aquarius and the 8th house and thus also be affected. Both of the giants will thus be weakened by the bad placement of their final dispositor, Mercury. Adding to the problems in April will be transit 2nd lord Venus in the 8th house as well. These placements suggest Virgo natives will be vulnerable to obstacles and conflict at this time.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Tue, March 16, 2010 6:01:27 AMRe: What Happens If Greece Really Defaults?

 

 

Hello list,

 

Here is news of some joint EU financial backing for Greece should its attempt to shore up its public finances fail to assuage the market concerns.

 

EU Lays Groundwork for Greek Lifeline to Shore Up Scarred Euro

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- European finance ministers laid the groundwork for a financial lifeline to debt-stricken Greece, breaking a taboo against aid to cash-strapped governments in order to avert a crisis for the euro. Officials from the 16 countries using the currency worked out a strategy for emergency loans in case Greece’s plan for 4.8 billion euros ($6.6 billion) in tax increases and wage cuts fails to stave off fiscal disaster.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=a6LrzQ9Wqc68 & pos=7

 

Of course, this leaves open the question of what next and what about the PIIG? Hopefully, it won't come to that. That said, these are historic times.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Tue, March 16, 2010 5:19:31 AMRe: What Happens If Greece Really Defaults?

 

 

Hello [name],

 

There are plenty of investor newsletters that offer theories and conjecture on this point. As for astrology, a reading of the transit and period influences in the SAMVA USA chart suggests that while transit Jupiter as 6th lord of debt is in the 8th house, until early May 2010, there will be concerns about the US debt, which may be linked to the debt of other countries.

 

Minor tremors are already being felt. Yesterday, there was a news story about a possible debt downgrading by the major rating agencies of the USA and UK. This is almost unheard of. At the same time, the yield on 5 year debt began to rise. This is being interpreted as first wind of the US Federal Reserve's (central bank) effort to reign in the huge liquidity infusion into the financial system and economy that began in 2007 when financial turbulence emerged, which ended in a crash in the autumn 2008. The liquidity infusion has helped avoid a deep freeze of the economy, but has raised the federal debt to alarming levels, which would be consistent with the Venus major period, with 4th lord Venus placed in the 6th house of debt (April 1996 - April 2016). In itself, higher medium to long term market determined interest rates are expected to have an effect to curtail economic growth moving forward, which is consistent with the Saturn sub-period

(Feb. 2009 - April 2012) - sluggish economic growth.

 

If the US economy, which is the centre of global financial capitalism is suffering, it is not strange that other countries like the PIIGS are hurting too. All have been caught left footed as the financial system seized up, with a recession unfolding with rising unemployment. The drop in Treasury incomes and rise in outlays with the cost of liquidity infusions added to the bill, has meant that public debt is soaring. The Treasuries of smaller countries in Europe that were already straining financially due to bloated bureaucracies and lack of fiscal discipline are now caught in a vice of high debt that the market won't gladly finance at low interest rates. They are therefore having to adopt a crash course in fiscal discipline. Will they manage? Will the bigger economies of Germany and France step in and save them? Big question. There are no authentic charts available yet for these countries, but some might find it of interest to explore the

tentative chart for Germany, earlier discussed on this list, as a clue to its actions. The PIIGS have one thing going for them. They have the euro, the common currency, backed by the European Central Bank. However, unlike the dollar, the euro lacks the backing of a single federal government. In this way, it is more comparable to the Continental dollar of the 1780s, which gave rise to the saying "not worth a Continental", after the British flooded the new states with counterfeit. Fortunately, there is no such shock to deal with. That said, there is an economic recession of historic proportion, which is undermining confidence in the euro project, due to its shortcomings. Will the project fail or be strengthened with a move to fedearl tax and spend reforms? My bet is on the latter. History can repeat itself (or rhyme).

 

The transits for the USA suggest the summer of 2010 will have its fair share of fiscal difficulties as Saturn, as 8th lord of obstacles and endings -- and sub-period lord -- and Jupiter will be in opposition aspect. This is not good news for the indications of Jupiter, including the debt. Fortunately, the aspect is slightly faster moving than during the conjunctions of 1940 and 1980. As Saturn rules working people, labour unrest is also highly likely during this aspect.

 

See also the predictions for 2010 on cosmologer.blogspot.com

 

Thor

 

 

 

matrixdutch <matrixdutchSAMVA Sent: Mon, March 15, 2010 3:31:27 PM What Happens If Greece Really Defaults?I just read this headline:http://finance./news/What-Happens-If-Greece-Really-usnews-3747443040.html?x=0Can someone provide their input on this scenario?