Joe Biden and Sarah Palin (US Presidential Election 2008 Prediction)

October 21, 2008

Dear APD,

I think what you are talking about is the " Bradley Effect " (people

supporting a black candidate when talking to pollsters but not when

they actually vote). In Barack Obama's case, it doesnt look like there

is a Bradley effect simply because of his demonstrated strength at

fundraising. His record making campaign money isnt coming from a few

large donors, but countless small donors. While people may lie to the

pollsters to look progressive, they never lie with their checkbooks.

I'm not trying to contradict Narasimhaji, simply presenting realistic

facts that go against the prediction. Also note that neither Gore nor

Kerry were ahead at this point in their respective races for US

President, so pre-election polls in general have proven to be very

reliable indicators. Gore caught up with Bush (in pre-election polls)

only in the last days when Bush's DUI info came out, and even then he

was only neck to neck, not really ahead.

Also, even going with the " sudden catastrophe " theory that you hear

these days (with Barack Obama's 8th house Mars AK with Rahu making it

all the more believable), there is no way Mccain can become president

without actually being elected. If Obama were to die 1-2 days before

election day, then it would be a mad scramble for the Dems to get

someone on the presidential ticket because the US constitution doesnt

allow election postponement (AFAIK). In that case, Mccain might win by

luck because the Dems may not be able to move fast enough, and he

might get elected. But he would have to get elected, nothing less.

Past election day though, if Mccain doesnt get the votes (i.e. if

Obama wins), even Barack Obama's AND Biden's death STILL cant get him

into the White house. Next in line according to current US law (AFAIK)

would be House Speaker, and then Senate president, and EVEN after

that, it would still be Barack Obama's designated cabinet successors.

All I'm saying is - there simply are no laws existing in this country

that can make Mccain president on Jan 20, 2009 without actually being

elected.

Regards,

Sundeep

> In fact, the statistics can be grossly misleading. Besides the fact

that the

> gap is narrowing over the last 5 days, there is one seldom mentioned

> peculiarity. As noted in Levitt's " Freakonomics " , a black candidate

often

> needs a 15% advantage in polls to crank out a 1% advantage in actual

> ballots. People try to appear more " progressive " in polls than they

are.

>

> So, even now you seem to be right on the money, though it is not

obvious for

> everyone. So much more spectacular will be your prediction, -- if

the charts

> are correct, that is.

October 22, 2008

Dear Sundeep,

Regarding the "Bradley effect", a university professor actually did some work on this during the primaries and concluded that there was a "reverse Bradley effect" at play this time around! In several states, Obama did *better* in the primaries than the opinion polls before. Basically, more African Americans and more youngsters showed up! Thus, I don't believe in the theory that Obama will be hit by Bradley effect and lose.

> I'm not trying to contradict Narasimhaji, simply presenting realistic > facts that go against the prediction.

Feel free to contradict me in general. :-)

However, in this case, I too acknowledged that the realistic facts do go against the prediction. The precedents suggest that Obama will cruise to a victory. Only Ronald Reagan overcame a 10% disadvantage in opinion polls in the last 20 days, but McCain is no Reagan and, more importantly, Obama is certainly no Carter! Yes, I agree that Obama has *almost* wrapped this one up.

Best regards,NarasimhaDo a Short Homam Yourself: http://www.VedicAstrologer.org/homamDo Pitri Tarpanas Yourself: http://www.VedicAstrologer.org/tarpanaSpirituality: Free Jyotish lessons (MP3): http://vedicastro.home.comcast.netFree Jyotish software (Windows): http://www.VedicAstrologer.orgSri Jagannath Centre (SJC) website: http://www.SriJagannath.org

sohamsa , "vedicastrostudent" <vedicastrostudent wrote:>> Dear APD,> I think what you are talking about is the "Bradley Effect" (people > supporting a black candidate when talking to pollsters but not when > they actually vote). In Barack Obama's case, it doesnt look like there > is a Bradley effect simply because of his demonstrated strength at > fundraising. His record making campaign money isnt coming from a few > large donors, but countless small donors. While people may lie to the > pollsters to look progressive, they never lie with their checkbooks. > > I'm not trying to contradict Narasimhaji, simply presenting realistic > facts that go against the prediction. Also note that neither Gore nor > Kerry were ahead at this point in their respective races for US > President, so pre-election polls in general have proven to be very > reliable indicators. Gore caught up with Bush (in pre-election polls) > only in the last days when Bush's DUI info came out, and even then he > was only neck to neck, not really ahead.> > Also, even going with the "sudden catastrophe" theory that you hear > these days (with Barack Obama's 8th house Mars AK with Rahu making it > all the more believable), there is no way Mccain can become president > without actually being elected. If Obama were to die 1-2 days before > election day, then it would be a mad scramble for the Dems to get > someone on the presidential ticket because the US constitution doesnt > allow election postponement (AFAIK). In that case, Mccain might win by > luck because the Dems may not be able to move fast enough, and he > might get elected. But he would have to get elected, nothing less. > Past election day though, if Mccain doesnt get the votes (i.e. if > Obama wins), even Barack Obama's AND Biden's death STILL cant get him > into the White house. Next in line according to current US law (AFAIK) > would be House Speaker, and then Senate president, and EVEN after > that, it would still be Barack Obama's designated cabinet successors. > All I'm saying is - there simply are no laws existing in this country > that can make Mccain president on Jan 20, 2009 without actually being > elected.> > Regards,> > Sundeep> > > In fact, the statistics can be grossly misleading. Besides the fact > that the> > gap is narrowing over the last 5 days, there is one seldom mentioned> > peculiarity. As noted in Levitt's "Freakonomics", a black candidate > often> > needs a 15% advantage in polls to crank out a 1% advantage in actual> > ballots. People try to appear more "progressive" in polls than they > are.> > > > So, even now you seem to be right on the money, though it is not > obvious for> > everyone. So much more spectacular will be your prediction, -- if > the charts> > are correct, that is.