*WILL THERE BE WAR WITH IRAN?*

[Guest guest]

*WILL THERE BE WAR WITH IRAN?*As each day passes, the possibility of a military conflict with Irandraws closer. Are we about the see a war with Iran? What will be theoutcome, and how will this affect the US and its allies.Let’s look at the situation as in stands at present.The USA, after the disastrous and unnecessary invasion of Iraq, is nowfaced with a real threat to its national security, not the imaginedthreat Saddam Hussein was alleged to be. Partly as a result of the Iraqiinvasion, the USA now no longer has the economic and military resourcesto consider a land invasion and occupation of Iran as it did with Iraq.More importantly, the lack of political support for such an invasionwithin the USA would make this difficult to mount a land invasion atthis time. To invade Iran would mean bringing back conscription andplacing an unsustainable pressure on the US budget.Iraq has become

America’s Achilles’ heel. Most informed commentators nowacknowledge that there is little chance America achieving victory inIraq. Public opinion in the US has turned against the occupation ofIraq, and with little prospects of victory being achieved; there is agrowing demands for a US withdrawal. Yet for America and Britain towithdraw from Iraq would have disastrous consequences to America’sinfluence in the Middle East. It would allow Iran to gain defactocontrol of Iraq, and threaten the control of Saudi Arabia and the GulfStates. It would leave Iran in control of Middle East oil.Sadly, the American people have turned against the Bush administrationand continuing the war in Iraq. While over 80% of Americans supportedthe invasion, less than 30% now support the war. Current domesticproblems within the Bush Administration are paralyzing its ability toprovide any effective leadership in resolving the challenge from

Iran.What many Americans fail to realize that there is no easy option but tocontinue the occupation of Iraq – withdrawal would play right intoIran’s hands, allowing it to gain a strategic position to gain controlof the Persian Gulf. Yet the longer America has to stay in Iraq, theworse the situation will become.The American withdrawal from Iraq would allow Iran to gain control ofMiddle East oil and be in a position to blackmail the West intosupporting its goal of destroying Israel. This is the real threat toIsrael and the West – not Iran having nuclear weapons. While the Sunnisand Shiites are religious rivals, they are both Muslim and share commongoal of having Jerusalem become a Muslim city.This time Europe and America are united in their opposition to Irandeveloping its own nuclear capacity through its enrichment of uranium.Unlike the US rhetoric and propaganda leading up to the invasion ofIraq, the Bush

administration has been much more cautious on how Americawill respond to the Iranian threat. There are a number of reasons forthis, some of which are: 1. America does not wish to become bogged down in another land war in the Middle East – its military is stretched coping with Afghanistan and Iraq. 2. Its economy is also stretched, with record budget and current account deficits, and increasingly depended on attracting overseas capital to meet the short-fall. 3. The threat to the global economy if the supply of oil through the Persian Gulf was cut off, which is a real possibility if Iran is invaded. 4. An international lack of confidence in

the US dollar if the US invades Iran.Both China and Russia see no benefit to their global strategic interestsin supporting a UN Security Council resolution to impose a trade embargoagainst Iran. China, India and Japan are all dependent on oil from Iranand an embargo would not be in their interests. Russia is using theopportunity of the conflict to gain strategic influence in the MiddleEast and has can see no interest in supporting the West through the UN.Europe and America must confront the challenge from Iran alone.The real threat of Iran to the West is the danger of loosing control ofthe Persian Gulf, which for the last 100 years has been controlled bythe Anglo/American alliance. Without control of the Persian Gulf wouldmean loosing control of the Middle East oil to other competing powers.China, Japan and India will put their own strategic interests ahead ofsupporting

those of America and Britain. As the global supply of oildeclines, and demand increases, alliances will be formed out of economicnecessity, not previous loyalties to any one nation.Russia is increasingly gaining economic strength through its new oilwealth, and would like to see the role of the US dollar has the currencyfor financing the international oil market replaced with an alternativereserve currency, and have the ruble become fully convertible. Iran,which has been under a US trade embargo for the last 20 years, has onlybeen able to accept Euros for the payment of its oil for sometime. Withthe steady decline in the value of the US dollar, other oil producingnations are likely to switch to the Euro for oil for their oilpurchases, similar to Iran, including Russia. This would bring about thedemise of the $US.Iran is fully aware of America’s weaknesses, and has decided to callAmerica’s bluff. Not only has it

challenged the US on its right todevelop its own nuclear facilities, it has also publicly declared thatIsrael must be wiped off the map. If the USA allows the challenge to gowithout response, it will undermine it authority not only in the MiddleEast, but in the entire would. Yet there is little the US can do, exceptuse nuclear weapons to destroy Iran’s nuclear production facilities.Is Iran really a threat to Israel and the West, or should the threatsmade President Mahmud Ahmadinejad not be taken seriously? Is therhetoric from Iran’s President to shore up his domestic position or ishe serious? I believe he is serious. Iran has told the US and Europe –we are going to continue with the development of our nuclear facilities,regardless of what the West says. This is a direct challenge to America,and if let go unanswered, will been seen as weakness in many parts ofthe world.Iran is unlikely to directly threaten

Israel in the immediate future,even if it does develop nuclear weapons. It’s continued to support ofPalestinian terrorist organisations is a greater immediate threat toIsrael’s security than the possible nuclear threat. Even if Iran didlaunch a nuclear attack against Israel, it would only result in Israellaunching a massive retaliatory nuclear attack against Iran withdisastrous consequences to their own country.What can the US and its allies do? What will be the outcome of thegrowing confrontation between the West and Iran? Will there be war withIran?It is very unlikely that the US will actually invade Iran or even bombthe country. Rather, it will continue pursuing diplomatic channels toencourage Iran to dismantle its nuclear facilities. This will beineffective, be seen as weakness by Iran, and will do nothing to deterIran from pursuing its goal of obtaining nuclear weapons and

destroyingIsrael.Unlike with Iraq, the leaders of France and Germany have supported theUSA in opposing Iran in obtaining nuclear weapons. If the USA does notstep up and confront Iran at this time, Europe will have to fill thevacuum. Europe, even more so than the USA, can not afford to lose accessto Middle East oil, or be blackmailed by the Muslim nations to opposethe existence of Israel.What will be the sequences of events resulting from not confronting thechallenged from Iran? The chain of events Iran is likely to adopt is: 1. Increase anti-American propaganda. 2. Develop strategic alliances and support from China in return for securing the supply of oil. 3. Pressure on OPEC to move from accepting payment of oil in currencies, other than the $US. 4. Increase

support for anti-Israeli terrorist groups. 5. Seek closer alliances with Russia. 6. Increase support of anti-American Shiite political groups in Iraq. 7. Attempt to overthrow of the Governments of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States with pro-Iranian regimes.The war with Iraq was the last through of the dice of the Anglo/Americanalliance. The failure to achieve victory in Iraq has highlighted thelimitations of the Anglo Saxon alliance which has so successfullydominated the world economically and military for the last 200 years.Its failure will mean the end of the US dollar being retained as areserve currency, their economic collapse, and their end of theirability to influence world events. It will mean the end of the dominanceof the English speaking people, and bring on a time of great tribulationupon them.The outcome will be

a united Europe that will fill the power vacuumfollowing the demise of the United States. What we are seeing unfoldover the coming months is a significant shift of global power, from theAnglo/American alliance to Europe. The coming collapse of the US dollarwill see a re-aligning of the global powers greater and quicker than fewnow comprehend.How has America and Britain got themselves into this mess where theirmilitary and economic power be directly challenged? Can they savethemselves from the coming destruction? For more information on this,email bep2403 <bep2403Bruce Porteous "Our ideal is not the spirituality that withdraws from life but the conquest of life by the power of the spirit." - Aurobindo.

Messenger with Voice. PC-to-Phone calls for ridiculously low rates.