Europe's Weird Weather Heats Up Global Warming Debate

[Guest guest]

EUROPE'S WEIRD WEATHER WARMS DEBATE

By Nicola Jones

New Scientist

August 5, 2003

 

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99994022

 

A scorching heat wave in Europe and a spate of forest fires has re-ignited

the debate over whether global warming can be blamed for an apparent

increase in the world's weird weather.

 

Scientists agree that no one yet knows the answer to this question, but they

point out that an increase in the number and severity of extreme events is

exactly what their models of a warmer world predict.

 

" The weather we've seen over the last few days is entirely consistent with

what we're likely to see over the next few decades, " says John Turnpenny, at

the Tyndall Centre for climate change research in Norwich, UK. " We're likely

to see such a heat spell in London every year. "

 

Extreme weather conditions are affecting all parts of Europe.

 

? In the UK, meteorologists predict a fair chance that the country will

record 100°F (37.8°C) for the first time this week, beating the previous

record of 98.8°F (37.1°C) from August 1990.

 

? In Portugal nine people have been killed in the worst wave of forest fires

in recent history. Western North America is also facing another bad year for

burning forests.

 

? In Switzerland, melting ice has contributed to a record number of climbing

accidents in the Alps.

 

? The heat in Germany has already cost agriculture more than 2002's

disastrous floods, while in Spain the price of chickens has soared as the

heat reportedly killed more than a million birds.

 

Such weather events fit in well with climate models that predict the effects

of global warming driven by rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The

UK's meteorological office, for example, says the UK is set to get warmer

and drier.

 

By 2080 there will be, at worst, 50 per cent less rain than there was in the

1990s. Average summer temperatures are set to rise by up to 3.5 degrees,

while temperatures swings will be wilder, with the top 10 per cent of daily

highs soaring as much as 7 degrees.

 

 

Cause and effect

 

But scientists caution that just because extreme weather fits with model

predictions, that does not prove that global warming is the cause.

 

" People lump extreme events into one basket and use it to strengthen their

arguments about climate change. But you can't do that, " says Simon Brown, a

climate change expert at the UK's Hadley Centre in Bracknell, Berkshire. " We

can't say that one causes the other. We're not at that point yet. "

 

In July, the World Meteorological Organization warned that " extreme weather

events might increase " . But Ken Davidson, director of the World Climate

Program and a contributor to the statement, says media reports linking such

weather to climate change were overblown. " It certainly isn't clear at this

point, " he told New Scientist . " We were very careful to use the word

'might'. "

 

It is even difficult for researchers to say that there are more extreme

events now than there were in the past, because there is no agreed-upon

definition for the word " extreme " , notes Brown. This makes it hard to

compile reliable statistics.

 

Davidson adds that drawing up a list of weird weather events may look

impressive, but must be carefully done to be meaningful: " There's always

strange weather. "

 

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[Guest guest]

Is the planet warming? Due to greenhouse effect? Or is just

regular weather cycles that man is unaware of because he has been

monitoring weather for just 100 years plus a few? Of course, he can

track weather changes through tree cores, geological sediments, ice

cores, etc. etc. But is all that actually in the realm of theory

and just one (possibly among many) hypotheses that fit the facts? And are

any of those hypotheses actually verifiable by real science:

science that is defined by the making of hypotheses about facts and

verifying said hypothesis in the real world and not just remaining in the

world of theory.

Is warming man made? One thing never mentioned is

HAARP. Its definitely about manipulating weather. Aside from

carbon dioxide and other pollutants. HAARP is the

management/manipulation of weather according to pre-designed goals of

government/science. Its my own thought that we don't need more

governmental management by thinking that the world of nature is becoming

inhospitable to mankind, and our whole ecological niche, and we need to

have government make others obey in order to stop ecological

degradation. THAT falls right into the hands of the same people

operating HAARP.

Ed

 

At 11:50 AM 8/6/03 -0400, you wrote:

EUROPE'S WEIRD WEATHER WARMS

DEBATE

By Nicola Jones

New Scientist

August 5, 2003

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99994022

A scorching heat wave in Europe and a spate of forest fires has

re-ignited

the debate over whether global warming can be blamed for an apparent

increase in the world's weird weather.

Scientists agree that no one yet knows the answer to this question, but

they

point out that an increase in the number and severity of extreme events

is

exactly what their models of a warmer world predict.

" The weather we've seen over the last few days is entirely

consistent with

what we're likely to see over the next few decades, " says John

Turnpenny, at

the Tyndall Centre for climate change research in Norwich, UK.

" We're likely

to see such a heat spell in London every year. "

Extreme weather conditions are affecting all parts of Europe.

? In the UK, meteorologists predict a fair chance that the country

will

record 100°F (37.8°C) for the first time this week, beating the

previous

record of 98.8°F (37.1°C) from August 1990.

? In Portugal nine people have been killed in the worst wave of forest

fires

in recent history. Western North America is also facing another bad year

for

burning forests.

? In Switzerland, melting ice has contributed to a record number of

climbing

accidents in the Alps.

? The heat in Germany has already cost agriculture more than 2002's

disastrous floods, while in Spain the price of chickens has soared as

the

heat reportedly killed more than a million birds.

Such weather events fit in well with climate models that predict the

effects

of global warming driven by rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

The

UK's meteorological office, for example, says the UK is set to get

warmer

and drier.

By 2080 there will be, at worst, 50 per cent less rain than there was in

the

1990s. Average summer temperatures are set to rise by up to 3.5

degrees,

while temperatures swings will be wilder, with the top 10 per cent of

daily

highs soaring as much as 7 degrees.

 

Cause and effect

But scientists caution that just because extreme weather fits with

model

predictions, that does not prove that global warming is the

cause.

" People lump extreme events into one basket and use it to strengthen

their

arguments about climate change. But you can't do that, " says Simon

Brown, a

climate change expert at the UK's Hadley Centre in Bracknell, Berkshire.

" We

can't say that one causes the other. We're not at that point

yet. "

In July, the World Meteorological Organization warned that " extreme

weather

events might increase " . But Ken Davidson, director of the World

Climate

Program and a contributor to the statement, says media reports linking

such

weather to climate change were overblown. " It certainly isn't clear

at this

point, " he told New Scientist . " We were very careful to use

the word

'might'. "

It is even difficult for researchers to say that there are more

extreme

events now than there were in the past, because there is no

agreed-upon

definition for the word " extreme " , notes Brown. This makes it

hard to

compile reliable statistics.

 

Davidson adds that drawing up a list of weird weather events may

look

impressive, but must be carefully done to be meaningful: " There's

always

strange weather. "

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