: Isabel's track

[Guest guest]

Info does look that way, however, I feel the impact will be the Carolinas ... If you are living in the Charleston area, definitely think of moving out.... NOW

 

 

 

Looks like she's headed right up the Chesapeake:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/140858W5.gif

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/140839.shtml?

WTNT43 KNHC 140839TCDAT3HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL5 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 700 MB PEAK WINDSOF 148 AND 143 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THECENTER...RESPECTIVELY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 135 KNOTS AT THE SURFACEBUT ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THEINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 140 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THECENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BESPECTACULAR WITH A DISTINCT EYE AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN ISABEL WITH AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 140KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC SINCE THE SHEAR ISFORECAST TO INCREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLSFOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITHA GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWESTDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THEINITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACKSHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THENORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS ASHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE U.S EAST COAST AND WEAKENS THE STEERINGCURRENTS. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS GONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...THESUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD AND ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TOINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...DANGEROUS ISABEL WILL BENEARING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICHUNANIMOUSLY BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE U.S MID-ATLANTICCOAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNSCONSENSUS WHICH HAS HAD A VERY LOW ERROR SO FAR.FORECASTER AVILAFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 14/0900Z 23.3N 65.2W 140 KT12HR VT 14/1800Z 23.8N 66.8W 140 KT24HR VT 15/0600Z 24.5N 68.5W 135 KT36HR VT 15/1800Z 25.5N 69.5W 130 KT48HR VT 16/0600Z 26.5N 70.5W 125 KT72HR VT 17/0600Z 29.0N 72.5W 120 KT96HR VT 18/0600Z 33.1N 75.0W 110 KT120HR VT 19/0600Z 39.5N 77.0W 100 KT...INLAND