Last flu strain change 5 yrs ago killed 65,000; this one's similar

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KD Weber <wvadreamin

Tuesday, 9 December 2003 13:50

Last flu strain change 5 yrs ago killed 65,000; this one's similar

 

 

http://www.chieftain.com/sunday/national/index/article/3

Bad Flu News: Last Strain Change Killed 65,000

 

 

 

Dec. 7, 2003

By DANIEL YEE

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

 

ATLANTA - The last time there was a flu strain mutation similar to the one

sickening thousands of Americans this year, nearly 65,000 died.

 

And that was only five years ago.

 

Flu experts say it's clear this flu season will be much worse than in the

past few years, but they are not ready to predict it will be one of the

deadliest in modern times. Epidemiologists at the Centers for Disease

Control and Prevention don't know how long this year's flu season will last

or how many people it might kill or hospitalize.

 

Already, it is worrisome because several children have died, and some parts

of the country are facing flu shot shortages and swamped hospitals. It is

one of the earliest flu seasons in a quarter-century, but some flu outbreaks

can peak as early as December, rather than February, which is the norm.

 

''I think it's clear this is going to be a more severe season than the past

couple of seasons,'' said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the government's leading flu

expert.

 

Some experts predict this year's death toll easily could surpass the annual

average of 36,000 deaths.

 

What's not clear is how it will stack up in the full context of previous

outbreaks, Fukuda said.

 

In the winter of 1998-99, the country was in the second year of the virulent

Sydney flu strain. Like this year's Fujian strain, the Sydney strain was

genetically slightly different from previous type A strains, making it

harder for immune systems to fight off the virus.

 

Type A flu viruses of the same class as the Sydney or the Fujian strains

tend to cause much more severe seasons than other kinds of influenza

strains, said Dr. Tim Uyeki, a CDC epidemiologist.

 

By the time the 1998-99 flu season ended, 64,684 people had died - more than

the number of people who died from AIDS at its peak in the mid-'90s,

according to research by the CDC.

 

Hospitals, overflowing with people sick with the flu, forced other patients

out to free up beds. Local officials had to use their disaster plans to

handle the crisis.

 

The outbreak was severe even though that year's flu vaccine matched the

Sydney strain exactly. But the elderly - who are at high-risk for severe flu

complications - have aging immune systems that flu shots do not protect as

well as younger people.

 

''In those years, there were more deaths,'' said Fukuda.

 

This year's flu vaccine does not exactly match the new Fujian strain,

although disease experts say it is close enough that it will provide some

protection.

 

A major mutation of a flu strain - rather than a slight variation - usually

occurs every 10 years and can cause a flu pandemic - a worldwide outbreak.

These very new strains are particularly successful in attacking people's

immune systems.

 

The 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic is considered to be the worst in modern

history, killing about 21 million people and making up to 40 percent of the

world population ill. A 1957 Asian flu pandemic killed 69,800 Americans and

a 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic killed 33,800 in the United States at a time

when a normal flu season killed around 20,000, the CDC said.

 

Health officials note the world is overdue for another flu pandemic. There

is no sign of that happening this year.

 

But the U.S. flu season is showing signs that haven't been seen since the

Sydney outbreak of five years ago: Hospitals in some regions are quickly

filling up - in Colorado some are reporting 100 new patients a day;

pediatricians are reporting a shortage of rapid flu detection kits, and flu

shot shortages are being reported in some areas of the country.

 

For years, health officials have urged people to get flu shots, but never

have Americans used all the vaccine produced. This year may be different.

 

The three makers of the traditional flu shot - Aventis Pasteur, Chiron and

Evans Vaccine - say they have shipped all 83.4 million doses of vaccine and

have no more supplies.

 

Now health officials, those in Colorado in particular, are urging healthy

people under age 49 to use the new, and more expensive, FluMist nasal spray,

which is still in abundance. The spray cannot be used by older people,

infants or at-risk people with chronic ailments.

 

This year's flu season has also eclipsed the concern generated during last

year when outbreaks of type-B influenza - usually milder than the type A

variety - led to school closings where doctors described ''explosive

epidemics.''

 

''School closures are one thing, but hospitalizations with pneumonia and

death is another,'' said Dr. William Schaffner, a flu expert with Vanderbilt

University Medical Center. ''Mostly what we are concerned about are severe

illnesses that bring people into the hospital ... at risk of dying. "