Progress Report: Denying the Obvious

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#160;#160;DON'T MISS DAILY TALKING POINTS: Bush

Highlights Failed Policies in Acceptance Speech

 

INTELLIGENCE: The New York Review of Books looks at

pre-war intelligence and How Bush Got It Wrong.

 

IRAQ: Secretary of State Colin Powell acknowledges the

Bush administration miscalculated the strength of the

insurgency in Iraq.

 

SPEECH: Slate's William Saletan offers a deft analysis

of the president's " back to the future " speech.

 

 

DAILY GRILL

" Money should not unduly influence politics [and]

influence peddling should stop. "

 

- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger

 

VERSUS

 

" Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's ambitious plan to

reorganize almost every aspect of state government was

influenced significantly by oil and gas giant

ChevronTexaco, which managed to shape such key

recommendations as the removal of restrictions on oil

refineries#8230; [Chevron] has contributed more than

$200,000 to his committees and $500,000 to the

California Republican Party. "

 

- AP, 9/2/04

 

 

DAILY OUTRAGE

After saying homosexuality represented " selfish

hedonism, " Illinois Senate candidate Alan Keyes was

asked if that made the vice president's daughter, Mary

Cheney, " a selfish hedonist. " " Of course she is, "

Keyes replied. " That goes by definition. "

 

 

ARCHIVES

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by David Sirota, Christy Harvey, Judd Legum and

Jonathan Baskin

 

SEPTEMBER 3, 2004

 

ECONOMY Put Put Put

CONVENTION Domestic Deja Vu

NATIONAL SECURITY Denying the Obvious

CONVENTION The Reaction

UNDER THE RADAR Go Beyond The Headlines

 

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ECONOMY

Put Put Put

 

New labor Department data show the U.S. added 144,000

jobs to payrolls in August, signifying a modest gain

" slightly below Wall Street analysts' forecasts. "

Revised June and July job numbers " created a

moderately more favorable picture for summer job

growth, but [are] likely to leave unresolved for now

whether the economy was successfully shaking off " a

midsummer soft patch. Other indicators are less

inspiring: The retail sector continues to lose jobs,

reflecting weakness in consumption, and long-term

unemployment is up again. In addition, wages continue

to stagnate, boosting the numbers of Americans sinking

into poverty. The economy has still shed more than one

million jobs since March 2001, assuring Bush will end

his four-year term with the worst jobs record since

Herbert Hoover. American Progress' Scott Lilly writes

that Bush's jobs record is " particularly

striking#8230;since tax cuts, the core of the

administration's economic policy agenda, have been

justified year after year primarily on the grounds of

job creation. "

 

CONVENTION

Domestic Deja Vu

 

Meet the new term, same as the old term. A speech that

President Bush himself hyped as " 43 minutes of sheer

wisdom " ended up being an hour of the same weary

formula: a series of warmed-over and ill-conceived

domestic policy proposals paired with naive happy talk

about an " ownership society. " Throughout, " his biggest

ideas were not really new, and he left the daunting

details of the agenda items...a comprehensive overhaul

of Social Security and Medicare, a reining in of

federal spending, a reshaping of immigration law

#8211; almost entirely unaddressed. " Moreover, " the

major items he did mention face significant opposition

in Congress, and many would cost far more than his own

party seems likely to be willing to spend. "

 

JOB TRAINING FLIP-FLOP: In a second term, Bush pledged

to " double the number of people served by our

principal job training program. " That is a nice idea,

but he has spent the last four years cutting funding

for job training programs. His 2005 budget, for

example, proposed to cut job training and vocational

education by 10 percent #8211; that's $656 million

#8211; from what Congress pledged to those programs in

2002.

 

COMMUNITY COLLEGE FLIP-FLOP: Bush also promised to

increase funding for community colleges. But he was

for cutting funding for community colleges before he

was for increasing it. Last year, the Bush

administration proposed cutting the largest direct aid

initiative to community colleges, the Perkins program

for technical and vocational training, from $1.3

billion to about $1 billion. Congress had to step in

to save the funding.

 

THE PELL GRANT FLIP-FLOP: Another Bush reversal: his

pledge to expand Pell Grants for low- and

middle-income families. For three straight years, Bush

has proposed freezing or cutting Pell grants. This,

despite pledging in 2000 to raise Pell grants to a

$5,100 limit. The maximum Pell grant is currently

$4,050.

 

SOCIAL SECURITY REDUX: Last night, President Bush

pledged to " strengthen Social Security by allowing

younger workers to save some of their taxes in a

personal account. " What he didn't mention:

establishing the privatization scheme could cost $1

trillion or more over the next decade, expanding

already record federal deficits. Administrative costs

could consume up to 40 percent of the funds placed in

private accounts. And, since returns in the stock

market vary, many retirees would do quite poorly. Bush

may realize this is a bad idea. He proposed the exact

same thing in his last acceptance speech, but during

four years in office with a Republican Congress,

nothing has been done. For more the hazards of Social

Security privatization read this new American Progress

column.

 

HEALTH SAVINGS ACCOUNTS REDUX: Bush also plans, if

reelected, to " offer a tax credit to encourage small

businesses and their employees to set up health

savings accounts, and provide direct help for

low-income Americans to purchase them. " What he didn't

mention: HSAs will likely drive up the annual

deductibles paid by workers. And because of their

adverse effects on employer-based coverage, HSAs could

swell the ranks of the uninsured.

 

COMP-TIME/FLEX-TIME REDUX: In another nod to business

interests, the president reiterated his proposal to

" change outdated labor laws to offer comp-time and

flex-time. " But while the proposals have attractive

sounding names, they actually open the door for

employers to pressure workers to " accept time off

instead of overtime pay. " Even absent explicit

pressure, employers would be free to " channel overtime

work to those who were willing to take comp-time. "

Moreover, " employees would have to take their earned

time off when it suits their employer rather than when

it suited the employee. " Bottom line: no one is

against giving workers more flexibility to take

vacations, but when an hourly worker exceeds 40 hours

in a week, he or she should receive overtime.

 

TAX CUT REDUX: As expected, the president renewed his

calls to make his tax cuts for the wealthy permanent.

But making the tax cuts permanent would be of great

benefit to only very high-income households. Estimates

based on data from the Urban Institute-Brookings

Institution Tax Policy Center show that if the tax

cuts are made permanent, the top 1 percent of

households will gain an average of $58,200 a year (in

2004 dollars) when the tax cuts are fully in effect,

reflecting a 7.3 percent change in their after-tax

income. By contrast, people in the middle of the

income spectrum would secure just a 2.5 percent

increase in their after-tax income, with average tax

cuts of $655 #8211; a little more than one-ninetieth

of what those in the top 1 percent would receive.

Moreover, making the tax cuts permanent would swell

the deficit and could destabilize the world economy.

It would cost $2.2 trillion over the next 10 years,

forcing Americans to give up important domestic

programs or add to the $374 billion annual deficit. A

report by the IMF said the U.S. deficit has already

gotten so out of control, it could threaten the

stability of the world economy.

 

NATIONAL SECURITY

Denying the Obvious

 

President Bush last night made many claims about his

national security record #8211; many directly

contradicted by the facts. In an effort to turn his

inflexible and ideologically driven foreign policy

into a political asset, the president sugarcoated his

record to claim " America and the world are safer "

because of his leadership. But both experts and the

record show that is not true. U.N. Secretary-General

Kofi Annan said in July that " I cannot say the world

is safer today than it was two, three years ago. "

According to Bush's own State Department, the number

of significant terrorist attacks last year reached a

21-year high. Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar are

still not captured, as the Bush administration shifted

special forces off the hunt for al Qaeda in

Afghanistan and into Iraq. The International Institute

for Strategic Studies says that al Qaeda has taken

advantage of the U.S. invasion in Iraq and grown to

18,000 potential operatives in more than 60 countries.

 

HOMELAND SECURITY STATEMENT HIDES OTHER PROBLEMS:

President Bush claimed, " we have tripled funding for

homeland security and trained a half a million first

responders. " What he did not say was that independent,

nonpartisan experts agree that he has dangerously

underfunded homeland security and the nation's first

responders. A task force headed by former Sen. Warren

Rudman (R-NH) found that " the United States remains

dangerously ill-prepared to handle a catastrophic

attack on American soil. " It specifically said the

Bush budgets would leave a $98.4 billion funding gap

for first responders over the next five years #8211; a

finding the Rand Corporation essentially seconded.

This year, the president is proposing to slash more

than $600 million (14 percent) from first responder

funding. Similarly, the Bush administration has

allocated less than $500 million for port security,

even though the Coast Guard estimates that $7.5

billion is needed in the next decade.

 

CLAIM THAT TALIBAN IS 'HISTORY' NOT SUPPORTED BY

FACTS: President Bush promised last night that " the

Taliban are history. " But according to the Wall Street

Journal, that's not true: " Two-and-a-half years since

the Taliban abandoned Afghanistan's major cities, the

war here goes on " in the vast rural areas. Taliban

leaders have vowed to derail elections in the country.

Over the last year, some 50 Westerners and 1,000

Afghans have been killed in fighting with Taliban

forces. The threat has become so dangerous that Afghan

President Hamid Karzai was forced to admit he " is

seeking the support of former Taliban officials " to

stabilize the country.

 

BUSH THANKS POLISH PRESIDENT EVEN THOUGH HE MISLED

HIM: President Bush said, " I deeply appreciate the

courage and wise counsel of leaders " like Polish

President Aleksander Kwasniewski. What he did not say

was that Kwasniewski has expressed outrage over the

Bush administration deceiving his country about Iraq.

In March of this year, the Polish president went on TV

and said America " deceived us about the weapons of

mass destruction " and that his country was " taken for

a ride. " Kwasniewski isn't the only member of the

" coalition of the willing " to become disillusioned.

#160;Six countries #8211; Honduras, the Dominican

Republic, Spain, the Philippines, Norway, and

Nicaragua #8211; have already pulled their troops out

of Iraq. Three others #8211; Poland, the Netherlands,

and New Zealand #8211; are planning to withdraw

shortly.

 

BUSH READS UNATTRIBUTED QUOTE FROM FAR RIGHT ACTIVIST:

Bush read part of a letter about Iraq that he

attributed only to an " Army specialist. " That

specialist doubles as a scholar at the National Center

for Public Policy Research #8211; a far right-wing

organization funded by extremists like the Richard

Mellon Scaife family.

 

AFGHANISTAN CLAIM BELIES GOVERNMENT WARNINGS:

President Bush claimed that " four years ago,

Afghanistan was the home base of al Qaeda " and that

now it is not. But according to the Bush

administration, al Qaeda remains a threat in

Afghanistan. As CNN reported in July, senior

intelligence officials said " a plot to carry out a

large-scale terror attack against the United States in

the near future is being directed by Osama bin Laden

and other top al Qaeda members " who " are overseeing

the attack plans from their remote hideouts somewhere

along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. "

 

CONVENTION

The Reaction

 

Editorial boards around the country are expressing

their frustration with the president's lack of

specifics about how he plans to turn around a first

term " marked by terrorist attacks, three years of war,

job losses and massive deficits. " The Washington Post:

" The chief difficulty with Mr. Bush's speech wasn't so

much what he put in, but what he left out: the

missteps and difficulties that have marred his first

term and will make many of the goals he cited

difficult to obtain. " The New York Times: " Despite the

enormous changes the United States has undergone since

the last election, from terror attacks to recession,

Mr. Bush has been sticking resolutely to the

priorities he brought into the office in 2001#8230;

Each of those policies has cost the nation dearly. "

The Houston Chronicle: " Bush promised to expand

freedom at home, although Americans have lost to the

war on terror the right to keep their library and bank

records safe from government scrutiny. He promised to

simplify the tax code, which became more complicated

and less predictable on his watch. The Boston Globe:

" Few would doubt President Bush's intention to stay

the course in a second term#8230;What is at issue,

however, is not his resolve but the path itself. "

 

Under the Radar

 

HOUSING - HUD AVERTS DISASTER: The government is

restoring millions of dollars that were to be cut by

the Bush administration, threatening housing

provisions for millions of America's poor, elderly and

disabled. Saying they had " averted a major housing

crisis, " New York City officials announced yesterday

that the federal government had agreed to restore

almost all of the $55 million that had been scheduled

to be cut under a recent regulatory change affecting

Section 8, the government's main housing program for

the poor. " For years, the federal government has paid

the full cost of rent vouchers#8230;[but] in April,

HUD informed housing agencies that, for the current

fiscal year, it would pay only an amount based on the

cost of a voucher in August 2003, plus an inflation

adjustment. " Housing agencies denounced that decision,

saying it would shortchange New York and other places

where the cost of providing vouchers has outpaced

inflation.

 

SECRECY #8211; WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN'T WANT YOU

TO KNOW: Shhhhhhhh. A congressional subcommittee last

week investigated the 9/11 Commission's conclusion

that unnecessary secrecy is " undermining efforts to

thwart terrorists. " They found a confusing array of

classified documents. Both critically important

information and the " comically irrelevant " alike have

been classified in recent years, including everything

from Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet's fondness for

Pisco Sour cocktails to a study concluding that 40

percent of Army chemical warfare masks leaked. And

responsibility for this extreme resides with the Bush

White House: as Republican Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT)

notes, " The tone is set at the top#8230;This

administration believes the less known, the better. "

According to J. William Leonard, director of the

oversight office of the National Archives, officials

in the Bush administration classified documents 8

percent more often last year than the year before.

(And don't expect help any time soon from the public

interest declassification board created in 2000 to

recommend the release of secret information in

important cases: President Bush never appointed any

members.)

 

SPIES #8211; THE PROBE GOES FURTHER THAN YOU THINK:

The Washington Post has a front page story today on

the investigation into the charges Pentagon official

Lawrence Franklin gave classified information to

Israel. The probe is wider than originally reported:

now the FBI investigation is examining whether

" several Pentagon officials " gave secrets to both the

now-discredited neocon favorite Ahmad Chalabi as well

as the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC. The common

denominators: " First, the FBI is investigating whether

the same people passed highly classified information

to two disparate allies #8211; Chalabi and a

pro-Israel lobbying group. Second, at least some of

the intelligence in both instances included sensitive

information about Iran. "

 

RIGHT-WING CULTURALLY INSENSITIVE QUOTE OF THE DAY:

Roll Call reports, " Guess who's the latest victim of

Cheney Potty Mouth Syndrome? Hard as it may be to

believe, it's none other than the man formerly known

as Mr. Family Values, one-time presidential candidate

Gary Bauer. " Walking outside Madison Square Garden, a

protester yelled at the Christian activist. " Bauer,

without skipping a beat, popped off the now commonly

procured and deployed F Bomb. 'F--- you,' Bauer said

as he kept walking. "