Fw: Global Warming May Spawn More Super-Storms

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Tuesday, September 21, 2004 6:06 PM

Global Warming May Spawn More Super-Storms

 

 

Published on Tuesday, September 21, 2004 by the Inter Press Service

 

Global Warming May Spawn More Super-Storms

 

by Stephen Leahy

 

 

 

BROOKLIN, Canada - Hurricane Ivan, the incredibly powerful storm

that killed at least 120 people in the Caribbean and southern United States, may

be a harbinger of the Earth's hotter future, say experts.

 

" As the world warms, we expect more and more intense tropical

hurricanes and cyclones, " said James McCarthy, a professor of biological

oceanography at Harvard University.

 

 

 

Despite the recent destructive series of hurricanes and

tornadoes, global warming is off the radar screen of the U.S. presidential

election campaign.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Large parts of the world's oceans are approaching 27 degrees C or

warmer during the summer, greatly increasing the odds of major storms, McCarthy

told IPS.

 

When water reaches such temperatures, more of it evaporates, priming

hurricane or cyclone formation. Once born, a hurricane needs only warm water to

build and maintain its strength and intensity.

 

Over the last 100 years, the Earth has warmed by about .6 degrees C,

according to the 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC), an international scientific body that studies the relationship between

human activity and global warming.

 

The IPCC report was based on research by more than 2,500 scientists

from about 100 countries who determined that emissions of gases such as carbon

dioxide act as a blanket that prevents much of the sun's energy from dissipating

into space.

 

Much of the extra energy from this " greenhouse effect " is being

absorbed by the oceans.

 

The " proof " that the oceans are warming is the fact that global sea

levels have risen 3.1 cm in the past 10 years, said Kevin Trenberth, head of the

Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in

Boulder, Colorado.

 

Water expands when heated, and sea levels are expected to continue

rising by as much as 50 cm by 2100.

 

While the warming of the oceans is not uniform -- the North Pacific

and North Atlantic are a bit cooler -- the hurricane-producing mid-Atlantic and

Caribbean oceans have warmed significantly.

 

" Global warming is creating conditions that are more favorable for

hurricanes to develop and be more severe, " said Trenberth.

 

Will that result in more Category 4 or 5 storms like Ivan?

 

" That's the logical conclusion, although it may be somewhat

controversial, " he said.

 

Before it struck Cuba a glancing blow, Ivan was a Category 5 on the

Saffir-Simpson scale, which rates hurricanes from 1 to 5 according to wind

speeds and destructive potential. Category 5 hurricanes have winds that blow

continuously above 250 kilometers an hour. Ivan's gusts topped 320 kilometers an

hour at times, making it the sixth most powerful hurricane on record for the

Atlantic Basin.

 

Hurricane Ivan's 12-day rampage killed 70 people in the Caribbean

and 50 in the United States. It will be some time before the full extent of the

damage is known, but some estimates put it at 10 billion dollars for the United

States alone.

 

As emissions of greenhouse gases continue to trap more and more of

the sun's energy, that energy has to be dissipated, resulting in stronger

storms, more intense precipitation and higher winds, says McMcarthy.

 

However, the statistical record of hurricanes hitting the U.S. shows

a decrease in the past 50 years.

 

Most hurricanes do not strike land, McCarthy points out, and up

until the past 25 years, with the advent of satellite tracking, there was scant

data on the storms.

 

But there is abundant evidence of an unprecedented number of severe

weather events in the past decade, McCarthy says. In 1998, Hurricane Mitch

killed nearly 20,000 people in Central America, and more than 4,000 people died

during disastrous flooding in China. Bangladesh suffered some of its worst

floods ever the following year, as did Venezuela. Europe was hit with record

floods in 2002, and then a record heat wave in 2003.

 

More recently, Brazil was struck by the first-ever recorded

hurricane in the South Atlantic last March.

 

" Weather records are being set all the time now. We're in an era of

unprecedented extreme weather events, " McCarthy said.

 

Historical weather patterns are becoming less useful for predicting

the future conditions because global warming is changing ocean and atmospheric

conditions.

 

" In 30 to 50 years' time, the Earth's weather generating system will

be entirely different, " he predicted.

 

What hasn't changed in the United States is the lack of concern

about climate change, said Ross Gelbspan, a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter and

author of two books on global warming, most recently one titled: " Boiling Point:

How Politicians, Big Oil And Coal, Journalists and Activists Are Fueling the

Climate Crisis -- And What We Can Do to Avert Disaster. "

 

Sharp reductions of emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon

dioxide on the order of 70 percent are urgently needed to minimize the impacts,

Gelbspan said.

 

But despite the recent destructive series of hurricanes and

tornadoes, global warming is off the radar screen of the U.S. presidential

election campaign, he said.

 

Gelbspan is not surprised at this, given the power and influence of

the fossil fuel lobby in Washington, which he outlines in great detail in his

book.

 

" America's oil and coal industries receive more than 20 billion

dollars a year in subsidies, " he said. " Imagine what could be done if that money

was invested in green energy. "

 

© 2004 IPS - Inter Press Service