Progress Report: Distorting the Horse Race

[Guest guest]

Wed, 29 Sep 2004 08:22:51 -0700

Progress Report: Distorting the Horse Race

 

 

" American Progress Action Fund "

<progress

 

Judd Legum and Jonathan Baskin

SEPTEMBER 29, 2004

 

 

IRAQ The Facade Has Fallen

PUBLIC OPINION Distorting the Horse Race

UNDER THE RADAR Go Beyond The Headlines

 

 

IRAQ The Facade Has Fallen

 

Comprehensive data compiled by a private security company with access

to military intelligence reports and its own network of Iraqi

informants reveals that " Over the past 30 days, more than 2,300

attacks by insurgents have been directed against civilians and

military targets in Iraq, in a pattern that sprawls over nearly every

major population center outside the Kurdish north. " The Washington

Post reports " a growing number of career professionals within national

security agencies believe that the situation in Iraq is much

worse...than is being expressed in public by top Bush administration

officials. " President Bush says we are making " steady progress " in

Iraq. Here's what some of America's well-informed intelligence

officers and army officials have to say in today's papers: " Things are

definitely not improving, " says a government official who reads the

intelligence analyses on Iraq. Perhaps the Bush administration is

looking at a different country: otherwise it's sunny pronouncements

represent a dangerous disconnect from reality.

 

STUDY SHOWS REBEL ATTACKS WIDESPREAD: Last week, President Bush

referred to the insurgency in Iraq as a " handful of people, " and Prime

Minister Allawi called it a " tiny minority, " operating in just three

of Iraq's eighteen provinces. But data quoted in the Times shows the

attacks are occurring over a " sweeping geographical reach, " from

" Nineveh and Salahuddin Provinces in the northwest to Babylon and

Diyala in the center and Basra in the south. " Even the supposedly safe

" green zone " is facing increased security concerns, and some say

security is deteriorating in Baghdad. Other data compiled by Kroll

Security indicates attacks on U.S. troops are occurring in " nearly

every major city in central, western and northern Iraq. "

 

CIA NOT HAPPY WITH BUSH SMEAR: When the NIC delivered a discouraging

report in July, White House spokesman Scott McLellan dismissed them as

" pessimists and naysayers. " In today's Post, several CIA officers and

national security professionals respond, reiterating their belief that

the " rebellion is deeper and more widespread than is being publicly

acknowledged. " " I'm not surprised if people in the administration were

put on the defensive, " said one CIA official, " We weren't trying to

make them look bad…Of course, we're telling them something they don't

want to hear. " A former intelligence officer with contacts at the CIA

put it bluntly: people at the CIA are " mad at the policy in Iraq

because it's a disaster, " he said, " and they're digging the hole

deeper and deeper and deeper. There's no obvious way to fix it…The

best we can hope for is a semi-failed state hobbling along with

terrorists and a succession of weak governments. "

 

IRAQI SECURITY FORCES 'AREN'T WORKING': An army staff officer quoted

in the Post indicated the reality behind the Bush administration's

insistence that Iraqis will soon be ready to take control of their

security. " They keep telling us that Iraqi security forces are the

exit strategy, " he said, " but what I hear from the ground is that they

aren't working. There's a feeling that Iraqi security forces are in

cahoots with the insurgents and the general public to get the

occupiers out. " On Thursday, President Bush claimed that " nearly

100,000 fully-trained " security personnel are working today, " but last

Monday the Pentagon said that " only about 53,000 of the 100,000 Iraqis

on duty have now undergone training. " And, according to Reuters, just

8,169 police officers have received full training. American Progress

takes a look at the state of the Iraqi armed forces here.

 

ELECTION COMPLICATIONS: " Leading Shi'ite Muslim cleric Ayatollah Ali

al-Sistani has expressed concern that Iraq has not yet met conditions

for fair elections in January. " A senior cleric close to Sistani told

Iranian state radio: " He expressed concerns…the regulations and

conditions set for the elections are unsuitable. There are problems

and negative signs. " Continued backing from Sistani, the " most revered

leader of the country's Shi'ite majority, " is critical to the success

of the elections.Check out American Progress's checklist to monitor

the " progress " Iraq really does have to make if it wants to hold

elections in January.

 

PUBLIC OPINION

Distorting the Horse Race

 

Media coverage of the Presidential horserace – a story that, since the

media insists on devoting so much coverage to it, unfortunately ends

up influencing how people view the candidates – is being distorted by

inaccurate and irresponsible polling by the Gallup organization.

Gallup has consistently reported much larger nationwide leads for Bush

than all other polls. There are two primary reasons: 1) Gallup's

sample routinely includes far too many Republicans than are in the

electorate, 2) Gallup uses a fundamentally flawed system to identify

" likely voters. " As a result, suspect large leads for Bush reported by

the Gallup organization draw attention away from critical policy

issues and to endless speculation about what Bush is doing right and

Senator Kerry is doing wrong.

 

GALLUP OVER-SAMPLES REPUBLICANS: In 2000, exit polls showed that

Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout by four percentage

points. In 1996, Democratic turnout was five percentage points

greater. There were also more Democrats voting in 1992 and 1988. A

study by the Pew Research Center found that party registration is

about the same as in 2000. But Gallup's most recent survey of 1006

registered voters included 40 percent Republicans and 31 percent

Democrats. Not surprisingly, the same survey showed Bush with a 13

point lead. Meanwhile polls by Investor's Business Daily, Zogby, and

George Washington University conducted in the same week showed the

Presidential race in a statistical dead head.

 

GALLUP USES BOGUS LIKELY VOTER MODEL: Gallup also results for " likely

voters. " What is a Gallup likely voter? Gallup asks a series of seven

questions. For example: Do you happen to know where people who live in

your neighborhood go to vote? Also: Have you ever voted in your

precinct or election district? Gallup then gives higher weight to

registered voters who answer yes to these questions. Instead of

predicting who is likely to show up at the polls, Gallup's methodology

systematically undervalues young voters, transient voters, immigrant

voters and other groups likely to vote democratic. Not surprisingly, a

recent Gallup poll of likely voters showed Bush witha 14-point lead.

Headline blazed across the country: Poll Finds Bush Lead Surging Among

Likely Voters. Meanwhile, excluding Gallup, 14 national polls of

likely voters released in the last two weeks show Bush with an average

lead of about three percent. In an interview with CNN, Gallup

editor-in-chief Frank Newport ignored the data, and inaccurately

claimed " most observers now say it's a six to eight-point lead. That's

what recent polls are showing. "

 

GALLUP INSULTS CRITICS: Newport told USA Today that critics of

Gallup's methods " don't understand the science behind the polls. " But

respected pollster John Zogby – who understands the science as well as

anyone – disagrees with Gallup's methods. Specifically, Zogby says

that " there are variations in people's party affiliations, but they

aren't changing much daily, weekly or even monthly. " American Progress

Senior Fellow and polling expert Ruy Teixtiera says, " Frank Newport at

Gallup insists this is a 'scientific' approach to take to polling.

Sounds more like dogma to me. " For a daily dose of the truth behind

the polling number's check out Teixtiera's blog.

 

MORE REPUBLICAN POLLSTER BIAS: Gallup is not alone is skewing polling

data to the advantage of Republicans. MSNBC has regularly included

Republican pollster Frank Luntz – without mentioning his partisan ties

– in it's election coverage. Luntz has freely admitted he skews data

to match his view point. He once said " Say you poll on an

environmental issue, and on eight of the 10 questions the numbers are

in your favor. Why release the other two? " In 1997 he was reprimanded

for his unethical conduct " in 1997 by the American Association for

Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) for his work polling for the

Republican Party's 1994 'Contract with America.' " Media Matters for

America has written a letter to MSNBC asking that Luntz not be

included in coverage or, at the very least, properly identified as a

partisan republican. Tell MSNBC and Luntz what you think.

 

 

Under the Radar

 

HEALTH CARE – FRIST'S BOTTLENECK: A New York Times editorial this

morning charges, if " Dr. Bill Frist, the Senate majority leader, knows

what's good for the body politic, he will allow a quick floor vote on

the drug reimportation bill he has been bottling up for the benefit of

President Bush and the pharmaceutical industry. " The Bush

administration, bowing to the demands of the powerful pharmaceutical

industry, has tried to ratchet up public fears about the safety of

reimporting drugs from Canada. " But this concern is addressed in the

pending bipartisan bill, " writes the NYT, " which mandates that the

bargain drugs would come from licensed Canadian pharmacists and

wholesalers registered with the federal Food and Drug Administration. "

 

JUSTICE – ASHCROFT GIVING STATES' RIGHTS THE CHAIR: Attorney General

John Ashcroft has been leading an aggressive campaign across America

to have the death penalty used more often and in more places. Ashcroft

is pushing to identify more crimes as under federal jurisdiction, and

thus open to the death penalty; often this effort comes over the

objections of the states in areas that have " banned or rarely impose

capital punishment. " The department is " bringing what are essentially

local cases to trial in federal court to achieve the political aim of

making the death penalty a reality in all 50 states. " Although the

Bush administration usually claims to be a staunch advocate of the

primacy of states' rights, in this case it " is making an end run

around local laws and customs against capital punishment. "

 

NATIONAL SECURITY – EXPENSIVE WISHFUL THINKING: The White House is

relying on expensive wishful thinking as its strategy for national

security. The Washington Post reports that the Bush administration has

blown $100 billion on a missile defense system that experts agree

hasn't had realistic testing and, chances are, won't work. Key

components of the system, which will be activated this fall, are

" years behind schedule, " and " flight tests, plagued by delays, have

yet to advance beyond elementary, highly scripted events. " In fact,

the total lack of test data " has caused the Pentagon's chief weapons

evaluator to conclude that he cannot offer a confident judgment about

the system's viability. He estimated its likely effectiveness to be as

low as 20 percent. " Such heavy reliance on a costly, unproven system,

experts warn, " risks inducing a false sense of security and locking

the United States into flawed technology. "

 

POLITICS – TAKING CARE OF ZELL: In a bit of quid pro quo, Zell Miller

is getting handsomely rewarded by Republicans after his vicious

attacks against John Kerry. The Hill newspaper reports, " The

Republicans are making sure that Sen. Zell Miller, who launched a

withering attack on presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry last month,

gets his pet projects paid for in appropriations legislation. " The

week after his nasty diatribe against Kerry at the GOP national

convention, the Hill reports, " Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) grabbed

Miller's arm outside the Senate chamber and assured him, 'Don't worry

about appropriations, I've already put that stuff of yours in there.' "

 

DEBATES – GORE'S REMINDER: In the New York Times, Al Gore reminds

America of " the last time Mr. Bush stood on stage for a presidential

debate. If elected, he said, he would support allowing Americans to

buy prescription drugs from Canada. He promised that his tax cuts

would create millions of new jobs. He vowed to end partisan bickering

in Washington. Above all, he pledged that if he put American troops

into combat: 'The force must be strong enough so that the mission can

be accomplished. And the exit strategy needs to be well defined.' "

Check out this American Progress document for more of Bush's broken

promises.

 

ETHICS – GROVER'S GAMBLE: The ethical fog surrounding GOP lobbyist

Jack Abramoff and PR consultant Michael Scanlon and the millions of

dollars they raked in from Indian tribes operating gambling casinos is

spreading to envelop some of their friends. Conservative activist

Grover Norquist, head of the anti-tax group Americans for Tax Reform,

appeared on NPR to defend Abramoff this week. But who will defend

Norquist? He, too, has financially benefited from Abramoff's shady

relationship with the tribes. Norquist has been close to Abramoff and

Ralph Reed – also deeply involved in the scandal – " since their days

as college Republicans. Tribal representatives have told the

Washington Post that Abramoff urged them to contribute to Americans

for Tax Reform. The Saginaw Chippewas gave the group $25,000 on Nov.

13, 2002, according to a trial representative. The Agua Caliente also

donated about $20,000 to the group, according to sources close to the

tribe. "