Checking the Facts, in Advance

[Guest guest]

<http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/12/opinion/12krugman.html?hp>

 

 

Checking the Facts, in Advance

By PAUL KRUGMAN

 

Published: October 12, 2004

 

It's not hard to predict what President Bush, who sounds increasingly

desperate, will say tomorrow. Here are eight lies or distortions

you'll hear, and the truth about each:

 

Jobs Mr. Bush will talk about the 1.7 million jobs created since the

summer of 2003, and will say that the economy is " strong and getting

stronger. " That's like boasting about getting a D on your final exam,

when you flunked the midterm and needed at least a C to pass the course.

 

Mr. Bush is the first president since Herbert Hoover to preside over a

decline in payroll employment. That's worse than it sounds because the

economy needs around 1.6 million new jobs each year just to keep up

with population growth. The past year's job gains, while better news

than earlier job losses, barely met this requirement, and they did

little to close the huge gap between the number of jobs the country

needs and the number actually available.

 

Unemployment Mr. Bush will boast about the decline in the unemployment

rate from its June 2003 peak. But the employed fraction of the

population didn't rise at all; unemployment declined only because some

of those without jobs stopped actively looking for work, and therefore

dropped out of the unemployment statistics. The labor force

participation rate - the fraction of the population either working or

actively looking for work - has fallen sharply under Mr. Bush; if it

had stayed at its January 2001 level, the official unemployment rate

would be 7.4 percent.

 

The deficit Mr. Bush will claim that the recession and 9/11 caused

record budget deficits. Congressional Budget Office estimates show

that tax cuts caused about two-thirds of the 2004 deficit.

 

The tax cuts Mr. Bush will claim that Senator John Kerry opposed

" middle class " tax cuts. But budget office numbers show that most of

Mr. Bush's tax cuts went to the best-off 10 percent of families, and

more than a third went to the top 1 percent, whose average income is

more than $1 million.

 

The Kerry tax plan Mr. Bush will claim, once again, that Mr. Kerry

plans to raise taxes on many small businesses. In fact, only a tiny

percentage would be affected. Moreover, as Mr. Kerry correctly pointed

out last week, the administration's definition of a small-business

owner is so broad that in 2001 it included Mr. Bush, who does indeed

have a stake in a timber company - a business he's so little involved

with that he apparently forgot about it.

 

Fiscal responsibility Mr. Bush will claim that Mr. Kerry proposes $2

trillion in new spending. That's a partisan number and is much higher

than independent estimates. Meanwhile, as The Washington Post pointed

out after the Republican convention, the administration's own numbers

show that the cost of the agenda Mr. Bush laid out " is likely to be

well in excess of $3 trillion " and " far eclipses that of the Kerry plan. "

 

Spending On Friday, Mr. Bush claimed that he had increased nondefense

discretionary spending by only 1 percent per year. The actual number

is 8 percent, even after adjusting for inflation. Mr. Bush seems to

have confused his budget promises - which he keeps on breaking - with

reality.

 

Health care Mr. Bush will claim that Mr. Kerry wants to take medical

decisions away from individuals. The Kerry plan would expand Medicaid

(which works like Medicare), ensuring that children, in particular,

have health insurance. It would protect everyone against catastrophic

medical expenses, a particular help to the chronically ill. It would

do nothing to restrict patients' choices.

 

By singling out Mr. Bush's lies and misrepresentations, am I saying

that Mr. Kerry isn't equally at fault? Yes.

 

Mr. Kerry sometimes uses verbal shorthand that offers nitpickers

things to complain about. He talks of 1.6 million lost jobs; that's

the private-sector loss, partly offset by increased government employment.

But the job record is indeed awful. He talks of the $200 billion cost

of the Iraq war; actual spending is only $120 billion so far. But

nobody doubts that the war will cost at least another $80 billion. The

point is that Mr. Kerry can, at most, be accused of using loose

language; the thrust of his statements is correct.

 

Mr. Bush's statements, on the other hand, are fundamentally dishonest.

He is insisting that black is white, and that failure is success.

Journalists who play it safe by spending equal time exposing his lies

and parsing Mr. Kerry's choice of words are betraying their readers.

 

E-mail: krugman

--