Something's Gotta Give

[Guest guest]

M

Wed, 12 Jan 2005 23:22:30 -0500

Something's Gotta Give

 

 

 

 

Something's Gotta Give

http://www.democraticunderground.com/articles/05/01/12_give.html

 

January 12, 2005

By Ernest Partridge, The Crisis Papers

 

The Bush administration has set the United States upon a course which,

if it

continues, is almost certain to lead to a radical transformation of

American

society. And it will continue, for George Bush is renowned for his

determination to " stay the course, " and for his disinclination to

contemplate and consider alternative policies and courses of action in the

face of unforeseen developments.

 

It is impossible to predict the outcome of Bush's radical experiments with

the American economy, his disregard of our political traditions, and his

freedom from constraints from the Congress, the media, and soon the

federal

judiciary. Most scenarios are, quite frankly, dreadful.

 

If we are to avoid the precipice toward which we are accelerating, this

deliverance must come from a shock of recognition of our perilous

condition

followed by decisive and concerted action by the financial establishment,

the media, and the general public.

 

It has happened before in our history - the end of isolation and the

mobilization for war, following the Pearl Harbor attack, the

discrediting of

Joseph McCarthy, and the fall of Richard Nixon, our disengagement from the

Viet Nam war.

 

Unfortunately, the prospects for such a rescue from the Bushevik folly are

not promising.

 

Of this much we can be confident: current trends set in motion by the Bush

Administration can not continue indefinitely. Herbert Stein's law rules:

" That which can not go on forever won't. " Yet this is a regime that

recognizes no limits, and has forgotten the meaning of " enough. "

 

And so, as with a bending branch, or an ever-tightening violin string, the

process must eventually come to an abrupt end. As the national debt soars

out of control, as income disparity between the very wealthy few and the

remainder of the population grows even as the median standard of living

falls, as the casualty lists from endless foreign wars lengthen, as

dissenting opinions are ruthlessly suppressed and civil liberties

curtailed

­ eventually, something's gotta give.

 

The developing crisis has many dimensions, any of which, or a

combination of

which, might well bring about sudden catastrophic consequences as they

reach

a breaking point.

 

Let's examine a few of these dimensions:

 

The Federal Deficit and the National Debt

 

A leading economist forecasts that America faces " economic

armageddon. " The

odds: about 90%. And who is this economist? Paul Krugman, Robert Reich, or

some other liberal? No, it is Stephen Roach, the chief economist at

the Wall

Street investment firm, Morgan Stanley.

 

As Brett Arends of the Boston Herald reports, the " four horsemen " of this

" economic apocalypse " are the federal deficit, the trade deficit, the

falling value of the dollar, and record level of consumer debt - all of

which continue to grow, with no end in sight.

 

And so, the branch bends and the string tightens. As the dollar falls,

interest rates rise, imported consumer goods become unaffordable, retail

stores close, workers are laid off, bankruptcies and home foreclosures

follow ­ more dominos fall, and the economy collapses.

 

If, however improbably, we are to escape another depression, the remedy is

no picnic. The remedy? Allow inflation to rise, thus reducing the value of

consumer debts. Bad news for long-term lenders. But if inflation

rises, it's

a sure bet that real wages will not keep pace.

 

When at last the bubble bursts, Bush, Inc. and the corporate media

will, no

doubt, blame this catastrophe on " the terrists, " Bill and Hillary Clinton,

God's punishment of America for tolerating gays, abortions and the ACLU.

Anything but their greed and their cockamamie policies.

 

But surely there is a limit to the gullibility of the American public

and to

its capacity to absorb economic deprivation. And when that limit is

reached,

watch out, Dubya!

 

Income disparity ­ economic injustice

 

Twenty-five years ago, the average Fortune 500 CEO earned forty times as

much as his median employee. Today, he earns five hundred times as

much. To

put this in perspective, this means that twenty-five years ago it took

that

CEO about a week to earn as much as his worker earned in a year. Now he

earns his worker's annual salary in half a day ­ from the time he

enters his

office in the morning to the time he leaves for his three-hour

three-martini

lunch.

 

Is this disparity enough? Apparently not. Bush intends to make his

wealth-favoring tax " reforms " permanent, as he continues to phase-out

taxation on investments and estates while continuing taxation on earned

income. All this will accelerate the " reverse-Robin Hood " flow of wealth

from the middle class and the poor (those who produce the wealth) to the

super-rich (those who own the wealth).

 

Will the time for that CEO to earn his worker's annual income now shrink

from four hours to one? To ten minutes? How much more of this robbery will

the impoverished public tolerate, before it storms the Bastille?

 

In the meantime, unemployment will increase as well-paying jobs

continue to

flow out of the country, and median family incomes continue to drop.

For how

long? Surely not forever.

 

Civil Liberties and Civil Rights

 

Few Americans appreciate that five of the ten articles of the Bill of

Rights

specify the individual's protections from abuses of law enforcement and

prosecution: the Fourth (restricting searches and seizures), the Fifth (no

self-incrimination, no confinement without indictment, no double jeopardy,

right to due process), the Sixth (right of accused to be given

statement of

charges, to confront accusing witnesses, and to have benefit of counsel),

the Seventh (right to trial by jury), and the Eighth (no excessive bail or

fines, no cruel or unusual punishment).

 

Nowhere in the Bill of Rights are we instructed that these rights

apply only

to citizens of the United States.

 

All of these guarantees have been violated, by executive order of the

President, in the case of detainees seized in the " war on terror " and held

in various prisons abroad, in Guantánamo Bay, and within the United

States.

In addition, these incarcerations are in violation of the Geneva

Conventions, which have the status of United States law. These violations

continue, despite a ruling of the Supreme Court that they be discontinued.

 

And now we have just learned that the Administration is claiming the right

to hold these wretches for life, without charge. We've heard the

excuses for

these outrages: " But these people aren't citizens, they are terrorists ­

Arab soldiers in the Al Qaeda army. "

 

Non-citizens? Consider the American citizen, Yasir Hamdi. Arab

non-citizens?

Consider the Hispanic (Puerto Rican) citizen, Jose Padilla. And who is a

terrorist? Apparently, anyone whom the President or the Attorney General

designates a terrorist.

 

Remember, the Bill of Rights applies to all persons, whether or not

they are

citizens.

 

Still feel safe? True, they haven't come after ordinary dissenting

citizens

­ not yet. But keep in mind the warning of Martin Niemöller:

 

 

 

In Germany they came first for the Communists and I didn't speak up

because

I wasn't a communist. Then they came for the Jews and I didn't speak up

because I wasn't a Jew. Then they came for the trade unionists and I

didn't

speak up because I wasn't a trade unionist. Then they came for the

Catholics

and I didn't speak up because I was a Protestant. Then they came for me -

and by that time, there was no one left to speak up.

 

 

The Human Cost of the Iraq War

 

At the close of 2004, more than 1200 American military and more than

100,000

Iraqis were dead as a result of the war. And for what? The original

justifications for this war, Saddam's WMDs and his al Qaeda connection, as

proclaimed by Colin Powell to the Security Council in February, 2002,

and by

George Bush shortly before, in his State of the Union address, are now

universally recognized as bogus. So now there is a new justification:

" bringing democracy to the people of Iraq. "

 

Day after day, the Iraqis are making abundantly clear what they think

of our

gift. There is still no exit strategy from the Iraq war, and while we

remain, our presence stimulates the recruitment of al Qaeda

terrorists, and

our international prestige, now at an all-time low, continues to

free-fall.

 

In another year, in another ten years, how many more dead and wounded will

be sacrificed to this folly? How many more parents will grieve, how many

more young wives will be widowed, how many children will be orphaned ­

needlessly, meaninglessly?

 

The Vietnam war taught us that there are limits to the numbers of lies

that

the American people will believe, and the numbers of losses that they will

endure. There still are limits. Sooner or later, the American people will

say " enough! " ­ and they will throw out the scoundrels that brought this

misery upon us and upon the people of Iraq, and who stained our good name

and reputation with the world community.

 

The Stolen Elections ­ Past and Future

 

If in fact the will of the American voters in the 2004 was overturned by

computer fraud and voter suppression, then it would appear that the

Republicans have executed a perfect crime. Last week Congress

certified the

election, and George Bush has been officially elected to his second

term. No

Senate or House elections have been contested. Immediately after the

election and forward to this day, cogent criticisms of the validity of the

election have been almost entirely excluded from the mainstream media.

 

In last week's debates, Republican Senators and Members of Congress said,

time and again, that " there is not a shred of evidence " that the Ohio

election was unfair and invalid, as if repeatedly saying so would make it

so. The Democrats, for their part, while complaining bitterly of

successful

GOP tactics aimed at suppressing votes in Democratic districts, repeated a

litany of their own: " it is not our intention to overturn the results of

this election. " By so saying, they were following the lead of their

candidate, Senator John Kerry.

 

Notwithstanding all that, compelling reasons remain to doubt the

validity of

the announced tally of votes, and the results of this election. It

remains a

fact that 30% of the votes in this national election were cast, and 80% of

the votes were compiled, by three private companies, owned and

controlled by

conservative Republicans. The voting machines produce no independent

auditable record and utilize a secret software source code. And as several

software experts have demonstrated, these machines can be readily

hacked and

the vote tallies altered, without leaving a trace of the mischief.

 

These are the simple, undisputed and indisputable facts about the " black

box " voting machines. The response of the Republican party and the

Republicans who manufacture and machines and write the secret software:

" Trust us! " There is not, and cannot be, any other response. That is what

they intended, for there are many affordable means by which the

accuracy of

the votes might have been independently audited and validated. These were

all deliberately rejected. The public has been offered no plausible

explanation of why this is so.

 

While direct validation of the votes has been denied the public by the

Republican Congress and Republican state legislatures, there are

compelling

indirect indications that this election was stolen ­ a serious charge,

which

I will defend in my next essay. Suffice to say that the most significant

evidence of fraud comes from the early exit polls.

 

Exit polling uncovered fraud in the elections in the Georgian Republic and

in Ukraine, and to lead to new elections which overthrew the corrupt

governments. Exit polls were also very accurate in uncontested and

auditable

states in the November election. Virtually all the errors favored

Bush, and

the widest deviations occurred in the battleground states, such as

Florida,

Pennsylvania and Ohio.

 

The response of RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie to the American exit polls?

Abolish them!

 

Absent widespread and persistent public protest, in the forthcoming

elections of 2006 and 2008, the percentage of votes issuing from paperless

" black box " voting machines will increase significantly.

 

Despite the determined attempt by the mainstream media to keep the

issue of

election fraud from the public's attention, a small but significant

minority

of 16% believed, in early November, that this election was stolen, and

that

number has since increased to 19%.

 

It is now widely believed that had the Supreme Court not intervened in

2000

and had the Florida vote continued, Al Gore would have won the state

and the

presidential election. In addition, there is good reason to believe

that had

the 2002 elections been honest, the Democrats would have won back the

Senate. In the past election, the early exit polls indicated a Kerry

victory

by about the same margin eventually claimed by Bush. But the public has

apparently accepted the official word that the exit polls were wrong, and

the final tally was correct.

 

But if the economic conditions, the unconstitutional repressions, and the

casualty figures from abroad follow the trends projected above, in the

forthcoming elections there will be surge of voter reaction against the

Republican administration and Congress. This sentiment will be reported in

the pre-election polls, (unless these too are suppressed or fixed in favor

of the Republicans).

 

Now imagine, in 2006, a landslide of public sentiment demanding a

change of

government in Washington ­ say, 60/40. Suppose then that instead, the

final

" official " tallies show further GOP gains in Congress, including a

filibuster-proof sixty-vote majority in the Senate. Imagine further, the

same overwhelming public sentiment in 2008 and the announced " close "

election of Bush's successor ­ his brother Jeb. In both cases, almost all

votes will be then cast with and compiled by unauditable machines

build and

secretly coded by private Republican corporations.

 

Do you believe the public would put up with this? Perhaps they would ­

after

all, the American public has tolerated today far more official abuse and

mendacity than many of us would have imagined to be possible, just a

decade

ago. But is there no limit to what our fellow citizens will endure? In

Ukraine and in the Republic of Georgia, there were limits; they were

exceeded, and the corrupt regimes were overthrown.

 

If the last three elections were in fact stolen by the GOP, the

evidence of

that theft remains even though the media refuses to report it. No doubt,

there is still more evidence to be uncovered. The Republican regime in

Washington will of course do nothing to expose the crime, but there are

numerous states and municipalities still in Democratic control that can

carry on investigations.

 

If public discontent grows significantly, as economic, civil, and

international conditions worsen, the public may become much more open

to the

idea that the Bush regime is not, and never has been, the people's

choice ­

that it is, in fact, the people's oppressor.

 

Numerous additional unsustainable trends have been set in motion by

the Bush

Administration. This late in the essay, I can only list them with brief

comments:

 

Media concentration and bias

 

There is a limit to how much the " official " press can deviate from the

experience, memory, and common sense of the public before that public

simply

ignores that official line and looks elsewhere for accurate news and for

opinion that reflects public sentiment.

 

The Royal governors in the American colonies discovered this, as patriots

set up committees of correspondence, and the " underground publications " by

Thomas Paine became best sellers. The Soviet government also

discovered the

limits of propaganda, as the citizens ignored Pravda, Isvestia and

Gostelradio, and turned to The Voice of America, the BBC and unauthorized

publications ­ " Samizdat. "

 

Even now, an American samizdat is emerging in the progressive Internet.

 

Official lies and eroding credibility

 

The Bush propaganda machine depends upon a widespread public amnesia ­ a

failure of the public to remember during one week, what Bush, Inc. and its

servile media said the week before.

 

Even so, the facts persist, as do the records thereof. Bush did, in fact,

announce " mission accomplished " and the end of Iraqi resistance, from the

deck of the Abraham Lincoln. And Colin Powell did in fact tell his lies

before the Security Council in February, 2002. Those words can not be

unsaid.

 

The Bush lies are being recorded and chronicled by the progressive

opposition, and as the public comes to suffer more from the abuses of this

regime, it will become ever more receptive to the idea that the Busheviks

simply can not be believed. And a leader who can no longer be trusted or

believed is a leader who ceases to lead - unless (ominously) he does so

through brutal repression.

 

Energy independence

 

The Bush-Cheney insistence upon staying with the petroleum-based economy

will have devastating consequences for world climate and the global

environment. But it will also have serious impacts upon our economy, and

perhaps much sooner than most of us might expect.

 

It is likely that sometime during this decade, world oil production will

peak and then decline ­ the world is running out of oil. Add to that, the

increasing demand for oil from China and Japan which, coincidentally, are

our primary international creditors. This can only mean that gas

prices must

rise sharply and soon.

 

There is much more at stake than the price at the pump, for petroleum

is the

foundation of our economy. It drives farm machinery, and brings food to us

from the farms, ranches and fisheries. Goods are shipped to us by gasoline

powered vehicles and plastics are produced from petrochemicals.

 

Other countries that wisely foresee the ending of the petroleum age are

developing and investing in alternative energy technologies, while we are

falling far behind. Nature decrees and science confirms that we cannot

go on

like this.

 

But we know what George Bush thinks about science, and thus it is no

surprise that he has cut funding to the National Science Foundation

and from

support for alternative energy research and development.

 

The emerging theocracy

 

Listen to the religious right ­ Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson, James

Dobson,

Bob Jones III ­ and they will tell you that because they delivered the

election to George Bush, they now " own " him and the Republican Party.

 

Expect to hear demands that " intelligent design " be taught alongside, or

even instead of, evolution, and that the Ten Commandments posted in every

courtroom. Also expect legislation to be introduced to restore anti-sodomy

laws, repression of gays and lesbians, and the end of most legal

abortions.

 

Be assured that the non-Christian twenty percent of our population

will not

tolerate this. And these citizens ­ including Jews and agnostics,

prominent

in the arts, sciences, the law, finance and education ­ are

influential far

out of proportion to their numbers.

 

Moreover, a large portion, perhaps a majority, of the remaining 80% are

" Christians " who are moderate, fundamentally secular, or even

" Christian " in

name only. They also endorse our civic compact of tolerance,

inclusiveness,

and the separation of church and state.

 

I suspect that the " success " of the Christian right is about to ignite a

counter-revolution far more powerful than they, or even we, might expect.

 

Corporate corruption

 

Scattered among our population, and at the moment politically dormant, are

the victims of corporate corruption. These include the thousands of

ex-employees of Enron, Global Crossing, and the like, who lost their

pensions as well as their jobs.

 

Add to that the millions whose investments and retirement accounts were

decimated by the collapse of these corporate Ponzi schemes. Then there are

the residents of such states as California (including " Aunt Millie " ) who

were gouged by Enron's criminal inflation of the utility rates.

 

Finally, there is every single American taxpayer, whose tax bill is

inflated

to compensate for the revenue lost as corporations set up tax shelters in

the Bahamas or the Cayman Islands. If and when a bandwagon of

resistance to

the Bush regime starts rolling, expect these victims of " crime in the

suites " to climb aboard.

 

International Isolation

 

Finally, the United States, once " the beacon of freedom " and " the city on

the hill, " is becoming an international pariah ­ abrogating treaties,

violating international laws such as the Geneva Conventions, refusing to

submit to an International Court of Justice or to cooperate with the Kyoto

Accords, and invading sovereign nations at will. Bush and his

neo-conservative acolytes believe we can do all this because we are

America

­ we are powerful, wealthy, and of course, godly and moral. Besides,

who is

there to stop us?

 

We may be about to find out. Far from being free to do as we please

with the

rest of the world, we are, in fact, woefully dependent upon other nations.

We owe most of our national debt to foreign countries, and they, in turn,

supply most of our essential raw materials ­ must crucially, oil. They

could, at any time, form " coalitions of the fed-up " which could reduce our

national economy to a ruined heap, and they could do all this without

firing

a shot. (See my " The Vulnerable Giant. " )

 

Our one-time friends and allies devoutly hope that this will never happen,

and so, along with our progressive compatriots, they look forward to

the day

when the United States will awake from its dogmatic slumbers, emerge from

its temporary madness, and regain its place as an honored member of the

community of nations. But if not, there are limits to the patience of the

leading nations of the international community.

 

Clearly, we can not long continue on the course upon which the Bush regime

has plotted for us. The American people know what it is like to be

prosperous, free and respected. Somewhere along this road there must be

breaking point. Something's gotta give.

 

And now the good news: Bush is vulnerable. Despite the awesome wealth

of his

supporters and the might of his propaganda machine, Bush and his

regime can

be toppled by an opposition that is intelligent, creative, courageous and

united ­ qualities which, sadly, have not been conspicuous of late in the

Democratic party.

 

These are a few of the factors that are working against the Bush

regime, and

which are likely to hasten its downfall:

 

First of all, the Busheviks apparently believe that the public's

capacity to

absorb abuse is infinite, and that the public can be fooled time and time

again and yet remain docile and trusting. Thus they treat us, the American

people, the same way that Lucy treats Charlie Brown: no matter how many

times Lucy yanks away the football, Charlie Brown comes right back for

another go at the damned thing.

 

Likewise, they believe that they can continue to cheat and lie to the

public, and the public will simply come back and ask for more. Admittedly,

up to now the public has given the Busheviks little cause to believe

otherwise. But as further hardships and abuses are heaped upon the public,

that forbearance is likely to erode and eventually disappear.

 

In addition, Bush's supporters in the corporations and the media seem

unaware that they have no stake in the future toward which Bush is leading

them along with the American people. It is all well and good to approach

" the establishment " with appeals to " truth, justice, and the American

Way, "

but let's not kid ourselves; the most effective approach to corporate

America is an appeal to their rational self-interest.

 

To be sure, this is not an easy case to make at the moment, for the Great

GOP/Corporate/Media Dream Machine is on a roll. They've grabbed the

keys to

the candy store. What the fat cats want, the fat cats get ­ tax breaks for

the wealthy, the dismantling of social services, the crippling of

government

regulation ( " interference " ) - while Big Media distracts the attention

of the

public from this looting with myths and trivial entertainments.

 

Nonetheless, this bacchanalia is leading us all straight to the economic

precipice. Intelligent capitalists such as George Soros and Warren Buffet,

and now Steven Roach of Morgan Stanley, can appreciate that if we do not

radically change course and soon, there's a shipwreck ahead, whereupon all

hands will go down.

 

No prudent person would want to book passage on the Titanic knowing,

or even

suspecting, its fate, no matter how luxurious the First Class cabin

arrangements en route. As the clouds of economic decline and civil unrest

gather, the corporate and media establishment may begin to take notice and

act appropriately. Whether they will do so in time, remains to be seen.

 

Finally, while none of the above political, economic and social trends are

sustainable, Bush and his minions appear to be unaware of this, as they

carry on with their wicked business as usual as if it could go on

forever ­

or at least through the next few presidential terms of office. These are

dogmatists, not pragmatists, and thus they are no more prepared to

deal with

unexpected future contingencies than they were able to develop and

execute a

plan of action after the fall of Baghdad.

 

In short: events that the Bush administration has set in motion will soon

overtake and overwhelm them, and they clearly lack the " smarts " to

deal with

these events.

 

It is almost impossible to overstate the arrogance of George Bush, and

those

immediate around him. Those who disagree with Bush's " gut, " such as Colin

Powell, Paul O'Neill, Joseph Wilson and the senior officers of the

CIA, are

banished from the Presidential Presence. Empirical research and rational

assessment of policy alternative have no place in the Bush White House.

Instead, George Bush and his circle presume themselves to have a God-like

ability to create reality out of wishful thought.

 

An exaggeration? Consider Ron Suskind's report of his conversation with " a

senior advisor to President Bush:

 

 

 

The aide said that guys like me were " in what we call the reality-based

community, " which he defined as people who " believe that solutions emerge

from your judicious study of discernible reality " ... " That's not the way

the world really works anymore, " he continued. " We're an empire now, and

when we act, we create our own reality. "

 

 

And Seymour Hersh:

 

 

 

There are many who believe George Bush is a liar - a president who

knowingly

and deliberately twists facts for political gain. But lying would indicate

an understanding of what is desired, what is possible and how best to get

there. A more plausible explanation is that words have no meaning for this

president beyond the immediate moment. And so he believes that his mere

utterance of the phrases makes them real. It is a terrifying possibility.

(Chain of Command: The Road from 9/11 and Abu Ghraib p.416).

 

 

This is beyond arrogance. It is insanity. And I measure that word

carefully

and employ it in a clinical sense: as " a detachment from reality. "

 

And it is an American tragedy. This derangement at the head of our

government is a ominous burden upon all of us who dwell in this

once-blessed

land, and a threat to the humanity that lives beyond our borders.

 

This derangement also presents an opportunity for the progressive

opposition. For such a " leader, " and such an administration can, if

carefully studied and skillfully provoked, be led to their own

destruction,

for they are blind to their own shortcomings and incapable of responding

rationally and effectively to unexpected obstacles that are placed before

them.

 

The Bush regime will eventually collapse of its own ignorance,

arrogance and

folly. The task of a responsible opposition is to hasten this collapse,

while seeing to it that as few innocent bystanders as possible are

struck by

the falling debris.

 

Dr. Ernest Partridge is a consultant, writer and lecturer in the field of

Environmental Ethics and Public Policy. He publishes the website The

Online

Gadfly and co-edits the progressive website The Crisis Papers.