Legislators hear about possibility of a major flu outbreak

[Guest guest]

http://www.metrowestdailynews.com/localRegional/view.bg?articleid=95639

 

Legislators hear about possibility of a major flu outbreak

By Emelie Rutherford / Daily News Staff

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

 

BOSTON -- It is not a question of whether a major flu pandemic like

the three that killed millions of people in the 1900s will surface,

but when it will strike, public health experts warned at a State House

forum yesterday.

" We're overdue for the next pandemic, " said Alfred DeMaria,

director of communicable disease control for the state Department of

Public Health.

A pandemic hits when a unique and highly contagious strain of the

influenza virus morphs and kills people around the world. Pandemics

come in cycles, so the lack of activity since the pandemic of 1968 -

which followed outbreaks in 1957 and 1918 - means one could come at

any time, DeMaria said.

Pandemics are unpredictable, he said, so public health officials

should start discussing how to plan to dispense the vaccine, which run

short of demand, at a time when many officials who deal with the

public will be sick and hospitals will be overrun.

Observers do not know if a massive outbreak of bird flu in

Southeast Asia, which killed more than four-dozen people, will turn

into the next pandemic, DeMaria said.

" Next to the explosion of a nuclear bomb over a major U.S. city,

pandemic flu is what is thought would cause the most death, " Geoffrey

Wilkinson of the Massachusetts Public Health Association said at the

forum moderated by state Rep. Kay Khan, D-Newton.

The 1918 pandemic killed 500,000 Americans. The next pandemic

could hit 2 million people in Massachusetts alone, and kill 4,700 of

them in state, the state DPH estimates.

" We face a calamity for public health with pandemic flu, "

Wilkinson said.

Problems with the flu vaccine supply last year gave public health

officials experience with prioritizing the delivery of vaccine and

working with multiple communities to run regional clinics for flu

shots, said Harold Cox, Cambridge's chief health officer.

Communities should hold drills about how to react to a sudden

outbreak, said Linda Walsh, director of clinical services in Newton's

health department.

" You don't want to be making these decisions in the face of

chaos, " Walsh said.

Public health officials are watching carefully the outbreak of

bird flu in Southeast Asia that has decimated chicken populations and

killed at least 49 people in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia.

" We don't know if this is going to be the pandemic but we've

never observed it before, " DeMaria said.

Public health officials do not know if the spread of this bird

flu to people is how pandemics have started in the past. During

previous pandemics, he said, communication with such parts of the

world - where people live close to poultry - was not as good as it is

now, he said.

Khan, a nurse herself, said she arranged the forum to make people

aware of the threat and focus on logistical preparation, as well as

preventive measures.

" It's such an important issue and people tend to brush it under

the rug, " Khan said.

The state's vaccine program needs $4 million more in the fiscal

2006 budget than the $25 million Gov. Mitt Romney recommended,

Wilkinson said. That money, he said, would go toward regular

vaccinations - and not pandemic planning.