[Fwd: AstroAlert: Major Auroral Storm is Developing - 24 November]

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A s t r o A l e r t

Sun-Earth Alert

 

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch

http://www.spacew.com

 

24 November 2001

 

Notice:

We apologize for the delay in getting this alert out to everyone. It can take

up to 12 or more hours for some individuals on this list to receive

notification due to the large number of people on it. Due to the early

arrival of the disturbance, combined with computer problems that prevented an

earlier notice being posted, it is probable that this warning will arrive too

late for many. We regret this and hope you will accept our apologies.

 

MAJOR AURORAL STORM DEVELOPING

 

A strong interplanetary shock front slammed into the Earth's

magnetosphere near 05:56 UTC on 24 November (12:56 am EST). The disturbance

was associated with a strong solar flare that occurred on 22 November. It's

strength and velocity was underestimated, however. The disturbance arrived

ealier than anticipated. A middle latitude auroral activity warning has been

issued for this event. A copy of the warning is appended below:

 

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

 

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

 

ISSUED: 18:20 UTC, 23 NOVEMBER 2001

 

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

 

*** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

 

 

VALID BEGINNING AT: 06:00 UTC ON 24 NOVEMBER (1 am EST on 24 November)

VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 26 NOVEMBER

 

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 - 25 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24 - 27 NOVEMBER

 

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 40, 20, 12 (24 - 27 NOVEMBER)

 

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE - HIGH

 

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

 

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

 

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

 

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD

 

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

 

OREGON TO UTAH TO COLORADO TO NEBRASKA TO MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY

TO VIRGINIA.

 

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

 

FRANCE TO GERMANY TO CZECH REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO BELARUS TO CENTRAL

RUSSIA. NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT

PERIODS OF MODERATE ACTIVITY.

 

 

SYNOPSIS...

 

A powerful solar flare that erupted on 22 November has produced a

coronal mass ejection that is Earthward-bound. Its impact is expected during

the early to mid UTC hours of 24 November. Auroral activity is expected to

rapidly intensify following the arrival of the disturbance. Auroral activity

may be observed across a wide range of middle latitude regions.

 

This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 27 November. It

will then be updated or allowed to expire.

 

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

 

 

Other Tools:

 

o Monitor real-time conditions and report sightings using software at:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora

 

o On-line global discussion forum:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

 

o Chat in real-time with others using IRC at:

http://www.spacew.com/irc

and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora in the IRC software).

 

o Real-time notification of events via Digital SMS:

http://www.spacew.com/sms

 

 

** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **

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