47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly

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47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly

 

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0411/S00142.htm#a

 

47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly

Thursday, 11 November 2004, 1:45 pm

Article: Alastair Thompson

 

 

47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly

 

By Jonathan Simon

Introduction by Scoop Co-Editor Alastair Thompson

 

" In the 12 critical states (CO,FL,MI,MN,NE,NV,NH,NM,OH,PA,WI,IA)

the average discrepancy was a 2.5% red shift (= total movement of

5.0%), nearly twice that in the safe states. "

- Jonathan Simon

 

- JUMP STRAIGHT TO THE NEW DATA

 

Introduction by Scoop Co-Editor Alastair Thompson

 

By the time of the close of polls at around 5pm EST on election day

the buzz on the world wide web – including here at Scoop - was that

Kerry had was a shoe in for election 2004. Slate Magazine and the

Daily Kos had published the swing state exit polls before the polls

had even closed. The news was very good for Kerry supporters.

 

According to the exit polls Kerry was showing a 1% popular vote margin

over Bush. But more importantly he was shown leading by a nose in

Florida and a solid 4% in Ohio. Because of the way the Electoral

College system works this meant that he had almost certainly won.

 

The polls have significant sized samples in all states and ask actual

voters who they actually voted for and so are traditionally very accurate.

 

As we now know they weren't very accurate once midnight came and went.

 

Or were they?

 

On November 4 (NZT – Nov. 3 EST) Scoop published Faun Otter: Vote

Fraud - Exit Polls Vs Actuals. This was the first exit poll comparison

analysis produced on the web it originated in the Democratic

Underground, a forum website, for Democratic Party activism and the

clubhouse for a lot of people doing grassroots research work.

 

Faun Otter's data - already immortalised in the Wikipedia (with a link

to Scoop.co.nz) - showed swing states moving far further on average

from their exit poll results than non-swing states after the polls

closed. I.E. the actual result for these states was more at variance

with the exit polls than it was in other states.

 

Alarm bells rang at this point because it has always been postulated

that looking at exit poll results after a stolen election would be the

best way to look for " general " evidence of voting fraud. By general

evidence I mean evidence that suggests fraud has occurred – not proof

that it has.

 

The reason this is so is that traditionally exit polls have been close

to 2% accurate. Yet in the last three elections, 2000, 2002 and 2004

they haven't been. This years poll remarkably is almost precisely a

re-run of 2000 with Ohio playing the part of Florida. In Florida in

2000 the exit polls showed Gore winning by 3%. In the middle of the

night they were still counting and on this state alone hinged the

entire election.

 

In 2004 just like in 2000 Fox news called Ohio to Bush before the

counting had finished.

 

Because exit polls are such a good research tool for vote fraud

analysis an organisation called PollWatch.org was even set up to

conduct independent exit polls. By election time their efforts had

been subsumed into the efforts of VerifiedVoting.org, a lobby

organisation initiated by Stanford University Professor David Dill

which signed up thousands of computer scientists and academics to a

petition calling for auditable voting machines.

 

However the activists were caught off guard on election night.

 

The Official Exit Poll results – posted in real time on public

websites - have some significant drawbacks. Unbeknownst to their

readers CNBC, Fox News and CNN were constantly updating their exit

poll databases to fit the final results. That is the statistics were

fluid and were updated several times through the evening. By 2am in

the morning on Nov 3, If you looked at the exit polls and the final

results you would find the matched. For Ohio, for Florida, for

everywhere. No story there people. Move on.

 

But as often seems to happen in these tortured times, something

unexpected happened and so we can now tell you something close to the

full story.'

 

The Washington post takes up the story:

 

Washington Post 11/4/2004:

 

" ... a server at Edison/Mitofsky malfunctioned shortly before 11

p.m. The glitch prevented access to any exit poll results until

technicians got a backup system operational at 1:33 a.m. yesterday.

 

The crash occurred barely minutes before the consortium was to

update its exit polling with the results of later interviewing that

found Bush with a one-point lead. Instead, journalists were left

relying on preliminary exit poll results released at 8:15 p.m., which

still showed Kerry ahead by three percentage points.

 

It was only after the polls had closed in most states and the vote

count was well underway in the East that it became clear that Bush was

in a stronger position in several key battlegrounds, including Ohio,

than early exit polls suggested. "

 

By 2am on Nov. 3 in the morning the publicly available exit poll

results on the network news sites all changed. Activists still had the

original results posted in blogs but they were no real comparison.

 

Which is why the following data study by Jonathan Simon of

verifiedvoting.org is so remarkable.

 

As it turns out this study was only possible because of the computer

crash reported by the Washington Post. While the boffins fiddled with

their computers Simon – with a considerable degree of foresight -

downloaded as much data as he could off the publicly available sites.

 

The revision number of this data is not known and the original data –

from Edison - is now being sought by Scoop.co.nz in order to repeat

this study with the full 4pm and 8pm data runs.

 

I conclude this introduction with some remarks from Chuck, who was

commenting on Simon's results.

 

" Warren Mitofsky meanwhile says that he knew in the afternoon that

his exit polls were off in nine states, but this does not sit well

with me (I'd need to know how he would know at that point and,

assuming he knew, why he would go ahead and promulgate them without

caveat?).

 

Way too much work went into getting the exit polls right this time

for me to just accept that they can't do as well as they were doing

routinely in the 80s and 90s. It is not, like stained glass, a lost art. "

 

Way too much indeed.

 

- Alastair Thompson Scoop Co Editor Thursday, 11 November 2004

 

*** ##### ****

 

To Those Who Seek Information As A Basis For Action Regarding Bush's

" Victory " :

 

By Jonathan Simon

Thursday, 11 November 2004

 

I examined the discrepancies between the actual vote tabulations as

reported and the Edison/Mitofsky exit poll results in 47 states, incl.

D.C. (in 4 states—New Jersey, New York, North Carolina,Virginia—I did

not have early exit poll results available, and the later results had

already been amended to reflect input of actual vote totals, which

rendered them corrupt as exit polls and useless for the purpose of

checking the veracity of actual vote totals).

 

I noticed an overall red shift (to Bush) across the spectrum of

states, but the shift was significantly nonuniform.

 

Having divided the 47 states examined into two groups, 35 noncritical

states and 12 critical or suspect states (Nebraska included because of

ES & S control and prior anomalies even though not a battleground state).

 

I calculated that the average discrepancy in the 35 safe states was a

+1.4% red shift, that is the average of the vote totals in each state

was 1.4% more favorable to Bush than what the exit polls predicted (=

total movement of 2.8%).

 

In the 12 critical states (CO,FL,MI,MN,NE,NV,NH,NM,OH,PA,WI,IA) the

average discrepancy was a 2.5% red shift (= total movement of 5.0%),

nearly twice that in the safe states. This in spite of the fact that

the average sample size in the critical states was nearly twice that

in the noncritical states and should have produced significantly more

accurate results.

 

Further, assuming a 3% margin of error and 95% confidence interval for

each state poll (the standard Mitofksy protocol, but a conservative

assumption here, since the sample sizes were significantly increased

in critical states), the red shift exceeded the margin of error in 4

of the 12 critical states (and equalled it in a fifth).

 

The chance of this occurring in 4 of the 12 states in the absence of

" mistabulation " can be computed using a simple probability equation

and is approximately 0.002 or one in five-hundred. It's a relatively

crude analysis and better analysis would have to wait on more complete

data, but basically what it's telling us is that we can say with 99.8%

certainty that " mistabulation " played some significant role in this

election.

 

Critical States (12)

 

DATA DESCRIPTION

Exit Poll Data Bush% then Kerry%, # of respondents, then time of

poll ET, and " Red " Shift%

Note: Red Shift = <(Btab% - Bep%) + (Kep% - Ktab)>/2 tab=

tabulated vote, ep=exit poll

 

The number is positive with net movement toward Bush, negative

(blue shift) with net movement toward Kerry. I'll take Florida (early)

as an example:

 

Exit Poll % : B=49.8% K=49.7%

Tab (99% precincts) B=52% K=47%

Red Shift: <(52% - 49.8%) + (49.7% - 47%)>/2 = (2.2% + 2.7%)/2 = +2.5%

 

I'm aware that I've played fast and loose with significant figures; a

more refined analysis would get at least one more sig fig out of the

tabulated.

 

Critical States (12)

 

FINDING: 12 (Critical) State Average Red Shift +2.5%

 

State....BUSH....KERRY....#Resp....Time....Red Shift

 

Colorado..49.9...48.1.....2515.....12:24AM....2.60%

 

Florida...49.8...49.7.....2846.....12:21......2.5

 

*Florida..51.4...47.6.....2862.....1:01.......0.6

 

Michigan..46.5...51.5.....2452.....12:21......1

 

Minnesota.44.5...53.5.....2178.....12:23......3

 

Nebraska..62.5...36.......785......12:22......4.3

 

Nevada...47.9....49.2.....2116.....12:23......2.2

 

New Hamp.44.1....54.9.....1849.....12:24......4.9

 

New Mex..47.5....50.1.....1951.....12:24......1.9

 

Ohio.....47.9....52.1.....1963.....7:32PM.....3.1

 

*Ohio....50.9....48.6.....2020.....1:41AM.....0.3

 

Penn.....45.4....54.1.....1930.....12:21......3.4

 

Wisconsin.48.8...49.2.....2223.....12:21......(-)0.3

 

Iowa.....48.4....49.7.....2502.....12:23......2

 

 

(Nebraska included because " critical " because of ES & S dominance and

history)

 

Important Note: Because of rolling updates, some states may have been

relatively pure by the time this data was collected. at 12:20-12:25,

while others may already have been slightly corrupted. My guess is

that most of these states were still OK at these times. *NOTE SCOOP IS

SEEKING A COPY OF THE ORIGINAL DATA FROM 4PM AND 8PM ON ELECTION NIGHT

– WATCH THIS SPACE*

 

*******************

 

Non-Critical States (35)

 

Again data order is Exit Poll Data, Bush% then Kerry%, # of

respondents, then time of poll ET, and " Red " Shift%

 

FINDING: 35 (NonCritical) State Average Red Shift +1.4

 

State....BUSH.....KERRY....#Resp...Time....Red Shift

 

Alabama..58.1.....40.5.....730.....12:17AM...4.2

 

Alaska...57.8.....38.8.....910.....01:00AM...4

 

Arizona..52.8.....46.7....1859.....12:19.....2.5

 

Arkansas.52.9.....46.1....1402.....12:22.....1.1

 

Calif....46.6.....54.6....1919.....12:23.....(-)1.5

 

CT.......40.9.....57.7....872......12:22.....3.4

 

(CT......44.4.....54.7....872......12:53)....0.2

 

DC........8.2.....89.8....795......12:22.....0.3

 

Delaware.40.7.....57.3....770......12:22.....4.8

 

Georgia..56.6.....42.9....1536.....12:22.....2.2

 

Hawaii...46.7.....53.3....499......12:22....(-)1.2

 

Idaho....65.7.....32.9....559......12:22.....2.6

 

Illinois.42.4.....56.6....1392.....12:23.....1.6

 

Indiana..58.4.....40.6....926......12:22.....1.6

 

Kansas...64.5.....34.1....654......12:22....(-)2.7

 

Kentucky.58.4.....40.2....1034.....12:22....0.9

 

Louisiana.54.7....43.9....1669.....12:21....2.1

 

Maine.....44.3....53.8....1968.....12:22....0.8

 

Maryland..42.3....56.2....1000.....12:22....0.5

 

Mass......32.9....65.2....889......12:22....3.7

 

Miss......56.5....43......798......12:22....3.3

 

Missouri..52......47......2158.....12:21....1.5

 

Montana...58......37.5....640......12:22....(-)0.3

 

ND........64.4....32.6....649......12:22....(-)2.4

 

OK........65......34.6....1539.....12:23....0.8

 

Oregon....47.9....50.3....1064.....12:22....(-)1.3

 

RI........34.9....62.7....809......12:22....3.4

 

SC........53.4....45.1....1735.....12:24....4.4

 

SD........61......36.5....1495.....12:24...(-)1.8

 

Tenn......58......40.6....1774.....12:23...(-)1.7

 

Texas.....62.2....36.3....1671.....12:22...(-)2.0

 

Utah......68.1....29.1....798......12:22....2.5

 

Vermont...33.3....63.7....685......12:22....5.2

 

Wash......44......54.1....2123.....12:38....1.6

 

WV........54......44.5....1722.....12:24....1.8

 

Wyoming...65.5....30.9....684......12:22....2.7

 

 

The following state data was obtained too late and highly contaminated

with actual tabulation results:

 

State.....BUSH....KERRY...#Resp....Time.....Red Shift

 

NJ........46.2....52.8....1520.....12:50....(-)0.2

 

NY........40.9....58.2....1452.....12:52....(-)0.4

 

NC........56.5....42.7....2167.....12:48....(-)0.4

 

Virginia..54.1....45.4....1431.....12:56....(-)0.4

 

Important Points To Note: The average sample size for the critical

states is 2109, for the noncritical states 1192, roughly half the

size. All else being equal, higher sample size correlates with smaller

margin of error, greater accuracy. And yet: the average Red Shift in

the noncritical states is 1.4%, but in the critical states it is 2.5%.

 

Why? Hard evidence must be found to account for this egregious

statistical pattern and to prove the actual fraud. This preliminary

analysis is fairly crude, and there are probably other, more telling

ways to slice and dice the data. Also, note that there were three exit

poll " sweeps " which led to updates around 4 pm, 8 pm, 12 midnight,

following which the " exit polls " were really contaminated by tabulated

data and of no use at all as a check mechanism.

 

I caught mostly the third sweep here (c. 12:20 am); my guess is the

second sweep would show even more dramatic discrepancies. While the

first sweep has come under skeptical attack for having a too great

female (pro-Kerry) weighting (the figure I heard was 58%/42% female),

it is at least plausible to me that morning/daytime voters would be

disproportionately female because of work schedules, so it may well be

just one of the specious rationalizations behind a very determined

coverup (we just don't know).

 

—Jonathan Simon

Thursday, 11 November 2004

 

ENDS