What Bush Will Say, What You Should Know

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Mon, 30 Jan 2006 11:47:02 -0500 (EST)

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Progress Report: What Bush Will Say, What You Should Know

 

 

AMERICAN PROGRESS ACTION FUND

www.americanprogressaction.org

 

 

The Progress Report

by Judd Legum, Faiz Shakir, Nico Pitney

Amanda Terkel and Payson Schwin

 

www.progressreport.org

1/30/2006

 

For news and updates throughout the day, check out our new blog at

ThinkProgress.org.

 

STATE OF THE UNION

What Bush Will Say, What You Should Know

 

Article II, Section 3 of the United States Constitution says: " The

President shall from time to time give to Congress information of the

State of the Union and recommend to their consideration such measures

as he shall judge necessary and expedient. " Tomorrow at 9 p.m. ET,

President Bush will do just that, delivering his fifth State of the

Union address. Below we tell you what to expect and what you need to know.

 

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

 

What Bush Will Say: " I agree with Americans who understand being

hooked on foreign oil is an economic problem and a national security

problem. " [1/29/06]

 

What You Need to Know: For five years, President Bush has consistently

steered the nation away from alternative fuels and towards greater

dependence on polluting imported fossil fuels.

 

BUSH HAS INCREASED DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL: Sixty-six percent of oil

consumed in the United States comes from foreign sources, up from 58

percent in 2000. Americans now spend $200,000 a minute on foreign oil,

and more than $25 billion annually goes to Persian Gulf states for oil

imports.

 

BUSH ENERGY BILL CONTAINED LITTLE ON RENEWABLE ENERGY: The energy bill

supported and signed by President Bush dropped a provision that would

have required utilities " to generate at least 10 percent of their

electricity through renewable fuels by 2020. " Â The proposal,

championed by Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM), was " was a low-cost,

market-driven approach to cutting demand for fossil fuels and easing

air pollution. "

 

BUSH ENERGY BILL WILL NOT REDUCE RELIANCE ON FOREIGN OIL: The same

energy bill failed to take any steps that will substantively reduce

America's dependence on foreign oil. Specifically, the final version

" rejected a Senate provision that required reduction of oil

consumption by one million barrels per day by 2015. " Under the bill,

" our need for imported oil will continue to grow for as long as models

are able to project. "

 

WARRANTLESS DOMESTIC SPYING

 

What Bush Will Say: " The terrorist surveillance program is necessary

to protect America from attack. " [1/26/05]

 

What You Need to Know: President Bush's warrantless domestic spying

program undermines the fight against terrorists and violates the law.

 

LAWLESS SPYING THREATENS LEGITIMATE TERRORIST INVESTIGATIONS: When

laws are broken, the legal system imposes consequences. Revelations

about the National Security Agency wiretapping program throw into

doubt a wide range of investigations and prosecutions in the fight

against terrorism. In criminal cases that can put terrorists behind

bars, judges now have to worry that evidence was based on illegal

wiretaps. According to several FISA judges quoted by the Washington

Post, there are serious concerns that " legally suspect information "

acquired through warrantless surveillance was used to obtain FISA

warrants, potentially rendering the warrants illegitimate. More

broadly, convicted terrorists will be emboldened to challenge their

prosecutions, perhaps giving them the opportunity to operate freely

once again. [Washington Post, 12/21/05]

 

LAWLESS SPYING WASTES VALUABLE INVESTIGATIVE RESOURCES: According to

the New York Times, a massive amount of time and resources were

devoted to the warrantless domestic spying program but obtained

minimal results. The FBI was bombarded with long lists of phone

numbers generated by the NSA program. According to a senior

prosecutor: " It affected the F.B.I. in the sense that they had to

devote so many resources to tracking every single one of these leads,

and, in my experience, they were all dry leads. " Long after 9/11, " the

N.S.A. material continued to be viewed as unproductive, prompting

agents to joke that a new bunch of tips meant more calls to Pizza

Hut. " [New York Times, 1/17/06]

 

LAWLESS SPYING THREATENS THE CONSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM OF CHECKS AND

BALANCES: The Bush Administration is claiming executive power far

beyond our historical understanding. Among recent examples: the

administration claims it can wiretap without a warrant in the United

States, contrary to federal law (FISA); it can torture, contrary to

international law and the recent McCain Anti-Torture Amendment; and it

can hold a U.S. citizen in detention forever, with no judicial review,

simply because the President labels the citizen an " enemy combatant. "

These positions constitute a direct attack by the executive branch on

the checks and balances designed to protect our nation's democracy.

 

MAKING TAX CUTS PERMANENT

 

What Bush Will Say: " Of course, we'll talk about fiscal policy in my

State of the Union, talking about the Congress to be wise about how we

spend the people's money and to make the tax cuts permanent. " [1/26/05]

 

What You Need to Know: Making President Bush's tax cuts permanent

would harm the economy and worsen the nation's poor fiscal health.

 

TAX CUTS WILL COST $3.4 TRILLION OVER TEN YEARS: The cost of making

the tax cuts permanent will be $3.4 trillion through fiscal year 2015,

according to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates. This

includes the cost of extending the Alternative Minimum Tax relief

associated with these tax cuts. [Congressional Budget Office, 1/26/06]

 

DEFICITS CAUSED BY TAX CUTS NEGATE ANY POTENTIAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS:

Studies by the Joint Committee on Taxation (JTC), Organisation for

Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and CBO all confirm that

deficits undermine economic benefits of the cuts. In their analysis of

the 2003 tax cuts, JTC found that any economic benefits of the tax

cuts would " eventually likely to be outweighed by the reduction in

national savings due to increasing Federal government deficits. " Four

of the five models they used showed a negative effect on real GDP by

the next decade, while the fifth showed no impact at all. CBO and OECD

studies confirmed the tax cuts would raise deficits and hurt growth.

[American Progress analysis, 1/26/05; CBO, October 2005]

 

PERMANENT TAX CUTS OVERWHELMINGLY FAVOR THE WEALTHIEST: Estimates

based on data from the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax

Policy Center show that if the tax cuts are made permanent, the top 1

percent of households will gain an average of $71,420 a year when the

tax cuts are fully in effect, reflecting a 6.5 percent change in their

after-tax income. By contrast, people in the middle of the income

spectrum would secure just a 2.1 percent increase in their after-tax

income, with average tax cuts of $870. [Tax Policy Center, 12/20/05]

 

KATRINA RECONSTRUCTION

 

What Bush Will Say: " I'm going to remind people we show the character

and compassion of America by taking focused action...to help

devastated areas of our country that have been -- areas that have been

devastated by natural disasters. " [1/26/05]

 

What You Need to Know: The Bush administration has bungled the

reconstruction efforts and is failing to support New Orleans'

reconstruction plan.

 

KATRINA RECONSTRUCTION HAS BEEN SLOW AND BUNGLED: If New Orleans is to

thrive, let alone survive, people must be able to return. They cannot

do so under current conditions. The Washington Post's Eugene Robinson

accurately notes, " the longer the city sits empty and ruined, the less

likely its renaissance becomes. Who but the president can break the

logjam? " Whole sections of New Orleans still " resemble a moonscape, "

and only around one-fifth of the city's original population has

resettled. Despite Bush's claims that New Orleans is " a heckuva place

to bring your family, " many " neighborhoods still are abandoned

wastelands of uninhabitable homes and sidewalks piled with moldy garbage. "

 

KATRINA RECONSTRUCTION FUNDING HAS BEEN TAINTED BY POLITICS: The $29

billion in aid passed last month was tainted by politics: the package

" gave Mississippi about five times as much per household in housing

aid as Louisiana received, " a " testimony to the clout " of Bush's

political ally, conservative Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour ®.

 

ADMINISTRATION REJECTED RECONSTRUCTION PLAN: President Bush said at

last week's press conference, " It's important for New Orleans and the

state of Louisiana to work together to develop a state recovery plan.

.... The plan for Louisiana hasn't come forward yet. " In fact,

Louisiana did come up with a plan - which the White House rejected.

Rather than supporting the " most broadly supported plan for rebuilding

communities, " Bush instead backed $6.2 billion in block grants that

Congress provided last year. Rep. Richard Baker (R-LA), whose

legislation would have established the Louisiana Development Corp. to

purchase flood-damaged property, called the block grants

" unacceptable. " " Clearly the $6 billion isn't enough, " he said. " It

ignores the vital recovery in the parishes of Orleans, St. Bernard,

Cameron and parts of Plaquemines. "

 

WHITE HOUSE STONEWALLING KATRINA INVESTIGATIONS: Congressional

investigations into the administration's inadequate response to

Katrina have stalled because the " Bush White House is now refusing to

turn over Hurricane Katrina related documents or make senior officials

available for testimony. " Recent news reports revealed that only days

before Katrina hit, " the White House received detailed warnings about

the storm's likely impact, including eerily prescient predictions of

breached levees, massive flooding, and major losses of life and

property. " One House investigator said the committee will find a

" disturbing inability by the White House to de-conflict and analyze

information, " but with the White House stonewalling the investigations

with claims of executive privilege, the administration's mistakes will

not be known for years to come.

 

STATE OF THE UNION

The Truth About Health Savings Accounts

 

According to news reports, President Bush will use tomorrow's State of

the Union address to promote " health savings accounts " as a solution

to America's health care crisis. Health savings accounts (HSAs) were

dramatically expanded in the 2003 Medicare prescription drug bill.

Generally speaking, they are tax-free savings accounts combined with

high-deductible insurance policies that people obtain through their

employers or buy independently from insurance companies. " In exchange

for paying at least the first $1,050 of their medical expenses each

year (or for families, a deductible of the first $2,100), consumers

are supposed to benefit in two ways: lower monthly premiums and the

ability to put pretax dollars into a savings account that grows

tax-free. " But, multiple studies have shown that HSAs are likely to

increase the number of uninsured and increase health care costs, all

while costing taxpayers tens of billions of dollars. In other words,

President Bush is proposing to do for health care what he's already

tried with Social Security -- placing more of the cost burden on

individuals, while making the system more attractive to the wealthy

but less effective for ordinary Americans who need health coverage most.

 

HSAs WILL NOT ADDRESS INCREASING RATE OF UNINSURED AMERICANS:

According to the Commonwealth Fund, health savings accounts are " not

likely to be an important contributor to expanding coverage among

uninsured people " because most of uninsured Americans " do not face

high-enough marginal tax rates to benefit substantially from the tax

deductibility of HSA contributions. " Another study by the Center on

Budget and Policy Priorities found that Bush's proposal " would induce

some currently uninsured individuals to purchase insurance, but also

would encourage some employers to drop health insurance or to reduce

the amounts they contribute toward their employees' health insurance

costs, since employers would know their workers could get a tax

deduction if they purchased coverage on their own. The number of

people who would lose coverage due to actions that their employers

would take would likely exceed the number of uninsured people who

would gain insurance. " [Commonwealth Fund, April 2005; Center for

Budget and Policy Priorities, 5/10/04]

 

LOW- AND MIDDLE-INCOME AMERICANS GAIN LITTLE OR NO TAX SAVINGS FROM

HSAs: " Low- and middle-income uninsured people will gain meager or no

tax savings " from health savings accounts, according to a Commonwealth

Fund study. Currently, roughly 50 percent of uninsured adults pay no

federal income taxes, meaning that " tax incentives for

high-deductible health plans would have little impact on uninsured

adults. " Moreover, " uninsured people in the middle income tax bracket

would see potential savings of just 3 percent to 6 percent on a

typical high-deductible health plan premium of $2,000. " [HealthDay

News, 4/20/05; Commonwealth Fund, April 2005]

 

HSA USERS PAY MORE OUT-OF-POCKET COSTS: Individuals with

" consumer-driven " health plans (CDHPs) and high-deductible insurance

plans (HDHPs) are " more likely to spend a larger share of their income

on out-of-pocket health care costs plus premiums than those in

comprehensive health plans. According to one study, " more than

two-fifths (42 percent) of individuals with HDHPs and 3 in 10 (31

percent) in CDHPs spent 5 percent or more of their income on

out-of-pocket costs plus premiums in the past year, compared with

about 1 in 10 (12 percent) in comprehensive health plans. "

[Commonwealth Fund/Employee Benefit Research Institute, December 2005]

 

HSAs COULD COST TAXPAYERS $41 BILLION OVER TEN YEARS: The health

savings accounts envisioned by President Bush will cost American

taxpayers roughly $41 billion over ten years, according to government

studies. The Bush administration estimates that the provision of the

Medicare drug bill that established health savings accounts will cost

$16 billion over the next decade. President Bush has also proposed an

additional tax deduction on the accounts, which both the Bush

administration and the Joint Committee on Taxation estimate will cost

roughly $25 billion over the same period. [Center for Budget and

Policy Priorities, 5/10/04]

 

HSA USERS MORE LIKELY TO AVOID, SKIP, OR DELAY HEALTH CARE BECAUSE OF

COSTS: Individuals with " consumer-driven " health plans (CDHPs) and

high-deductible health plans (HDHPs) -- both elements of health

savings accounts -- " were significantly more likely to avoid, skip, or

delay health care because of costs than were those with comprehensive

insurance, with problems particularly pronounced among those with

health problems or incomes under $50,000. " According to one study,

" about one-third of individuals in CDHPs (35 percent) and HDHPs (31

percent) reported delaying or avoiding care, compared with 17 percent

of those in comprehensive health plans. " [Commonwealth Fund/Employee

Benefit Research Institute, December 2005]

 

HSA USERS MORE LIKELY TO HAVE DIFFICULTY PAYING MEDICAL BILLS:

Individuals with high-deductible insurance plans (HDHPs), which are

mandatory with health savings accounts, are " more likely than those

with traditional medical coverage to have difficulty paying their

medical bills. Forty-nine percent of consumers with deductibles above

$500 per year wound up with outstanding medical debt, vs. 32% with

regular coverage. " [WebMD Medical News, 1/27/05]

 

HSAs WILL UNDERMINE EMPLOYER-BASED HEALTH CARE SYSTEM: The current

policy of promoting high deductible plans (including the proposal for

a new tax deduction for individual high-deductible policies) will

weaken the employer-based health care system by providing employers

with financial incentives to " cash-out " health benefits, sending

employees to the individual market. This market cherry-picks the

healthy and creates barriers to coverage for the sick. In other words,

this policy undermines the purpose of insurance (whether health,

homeowners, car, or any other type), which is to pool risk. With most

health insurance -- employer coverage, Medicare, and most other

countries' systems -- the healthy subsidize the unhealthy, to ensure

that overall premiums are reasonable and that everyone covered by the

plan receives the health benefits they need when they get sick.

Outside factors such as heredity, the environment, and plain luck also

play a role, even among those of us who eat healthfully, exercise

faithfully, and keep stress to a minimum. [American Progress, 8/11/04;

Commonwealth Fund, April 2005]

 

COST SAVINGS ARE ILLUSORY: HSAs are supposed to save costs by

discouraging people from obtaining unnecessary health care. But about

70 percent of costs in the U.S. health system are for the top 10

percent most expensive people. These people's costs are well above the

deductible and are usually require hospitalization or are chronically

illy. A high deducible won't change their behavior. [New Yorker, 8/29/05]

 

HSA EXPERIMENTS HAVE FAILED IN OTHER COUNTRIES: Just as Americans

learned of the pitfalls of Social Security privatization from

experiences in Chile and the UK, so we can learn about the flaws of

President Bush's health care proposals from South Africa and

Singapore, which both implemented versions of HSAs. A study by the

Harvard School of Public Health analyzed the health savings accounts

enacted in Singapore and found they had " caused financial hardship for

Singapore's citizens and...adversely affected the cost-effectiveness

of its health care system. " Likewise, in South Africa, which has " a

decade's worth of experience with similar consumer-driven health

plans, " the cost of specialty care has increased 43 percent, the cost

of hospital care is up 65 percent, and uninsured rates have " continued

to grow rapidly. " [Harvard School of Public Health, August 2001;

" Medical Error, " The New Republic, 11/7/05]

 

GOOD NEWS

 

Washington passes gay civil rights bill, adding " 'sexual orientation'

to a state law that bans discrimination in housing, employment and

insurance. "

 

STATE WATCH

 

CALIFORNIA: State becomes the first to declare secondhand smoke a

toxic air pollutant, on the same level as diesel exhaust, arsenic, and

benzene.

 

ARIZONA: State Rep. Phil Lopes (D) will propose a universal health

care plan to cover all Arizona residents.

 

LOUISIANA: New Orleans may lose up to 80 percent of its black

population " if people displaced by Hurricane Katrina are not able to

return to damaged neighborhoods. "

 

BLOG WATCH

 

THINK PROGRESS: Numerous conservatives say White House should release

records of contacts with Abramoff.

 

BUDGET BLOG: American Progress launches a blog devoted to the budget.

 

DAILY KOS: Contrary to media claims, tribal clients gave less to

Democrats and more -- 135 percent more -- to Republicans after signing

with Abramoff.

 

DEMOCRACY ARSENAL: Ten things President Bush needs to say tomorrow

night about foreign policy.

 

DAILY GRILL

 

" I'm not aware of anything that has anything to do wit the

investigation. I know that there's some...that want to try to make

this -- try to engage in partisan attacks... "

-- Scott McClellan, explaining why calls for the White House to

release records documenting their contacts with Jack Abramoff is

motivated by partisanship, 1/23/05

 

VERSUS

 

" Three Republican lawmakers Sunday urged President Bush to disclose

who in the White House had met with lobbyist Jack Abramoff and what

was discussed in those meetings. "

-- Los Angeles Times, 1/30/06

 

 

UNDER THE RADAR

 

BUDGET -- BUDGET BILL WILL CUT HEALTH CARE FOR MILLIONS OF POOR

PEOPLE: Millions of low-income people will have to pay more for health

care and many will have to drop out of Medicaid all together because

of higher co-payments and premiums in a bill on which the House will

vote on Feb. 1, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The Deficit Reduction Act passed the Senate last December with a

tie-breaking vote by Vice President Cheney. In this bill, about 13

million people -- 20 percent of Medicaid recipients -- will face

higher co-payments on doctor's visits and hospital care, and by 2010,

approximately 13 million people will have to pay higher costs for

prescription drugs. " About one-third of those affected would be

children, and almost half would be individuals with income below the

poverty level, " the report said. Another 1.6 million beneficiaries

will see their Medicaid benefits scaled back by 2015. Additionally,

penalties will stiffen for wealthy seniors who attempt to defraud the

government by transferring money to different accounts to " appear

poor. " " But critics say many needy seniors may be denied coverage

because they gave a modest gift to a child or a charity as much as

five years before they applied for Medicaid. "

 

HEALTH CARE -- DRAFTERS OF MEDICARE PRESCRIPTION DRUG BILL BENEFIT

FROM REVOLVING DOOR: The new Medicare prescription drug program has

shown itself to be unnecessarily complicated and costly. Rep. Henry

Waxman (D-CA) said the problems have resulted because " the program was

turned over to hundreds of private insurers who can charge what they

want, cover what drugs they want, and change what they cover at will. "

Bloomberg reports that the health insurance industry was given such a

large role as a result of questionable ethics practices on the part of

the drafters of the bill. " Fifteen lawmakers, congressional aides and

Bush administration officials who pushed through the costliest

Medicare overhaul in history began working for the health-care

industry within a year of the measure's passage. " Chief among the

offenders is former Medicare administrator Thomas Scully, who

shepherded the drug bill into law and then subsequently joined Alston

& Bird, a law firm that received $1 million between January 2004 and

June 2005 from clients to lobby on the implementation of the plan.

" Besides Scully, Alston & Bird brought in Timothy Trysla, a former

senior policy adviser at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid

Services; and two former Senate Finance Committee aides, counsel Colin

Roskey and health-policy adviser Jennifer Bell. Trysla, Roskey and

Bell are also registered to lobby on the Medicare bill, disclosure

reports show. "

 

NATIONAL SECURITY -- BUSH ADMINISTRATION SHOWS LESS URGENCY IN

DISRUPTING TERRORIST FINANCES: In October 2005, President Bush signed

the Homeland Security Appropriations Act for 2006 claiming the

Department has had great success in cutting of the flow of terrorist

assets. " We disrupted terrorist planning and financing, as a result of

the reforms, " said Bush. In fact, USA Today reports, " The amount of

assets frozen by U.S. anti-terrorism units is declining dramatically

each year, prompting a former Bush administration official who helped

oversee the program to suggest that a 'lack of urgency' is hurting

efforts to block terrorist fundraising. " In the 16 weeks after 9/11,

157 suspected terrorism fundraisers were identified and assets valued

at $68 million were frozen. In contrast, for the entire year of 2005,

32 suspects or organizations had approximately $4.9 million in assets

frozen.

 

SCIENCE -- BUSH ADMINISTRATION MUZZLES SCIENTISTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE:

Throughout his term, President Bush has repeatedly questioned whether

climate change exists. But it seems he and his administration have

gone a step further -- silencing scientists who speak out on the

issue. The Bush administration has tried to stop James E. Hansen,

director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, " from speaking

out since he gave a lecture last month calling for prompt reductions

in emissions of greenhouse gases linked to global warming. " NASA

officials ordered reviews of his lectures, papers, and interview

requests. George Deutsch, one of the officials appointed to review

Hansen's work, rejected a National Public Radio request to interview

Hansen, calling it " the most liberal " media outlet in the country and

saying that Hansen's job was " to make the president look good. " In a

weekend Washington Post article where Hansen was quoted on whether or

not the world is about to reach a " tipping point " on climate change,

the reporter noted that " NASA officials tried to discourage a reporter

from interviewing Hansen for this article and later insisted he could

speak on the record only if an agency spokeswoman listened in on the

conversation. "

 

INTELLIGENCE -- U.S. COVERT PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN IN IRAQ MAY BE

VIOLATION: The U.S. military has defended its practice of secretly

paying Iraqi newspapers to print favorable stories written by American

troops. " The realities of the environment here demand something more

ambitious than people might understand, " said one officer in Iraq. But

a newly declassified Oct. 2003 Information Operations Roadmap,

personally approved by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, suggests

that this practice may be a violation of Pentagon rules. The Roadmap

" appears to prohibit U.S. troops from conducting psychological

operations, or psy-ops, targeting the media. " " It's clearly a

violation based on the language used in the Rumsfeld document, " said

one Pentagon official.