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Lifted from another list I receive.

 

 

NFU news release re: food supply crisis - grain stocks use ratio

 

National Office

2717 Wentz Ave.

Saskatoon, Sask., S7K 4B6

Tel (306) 652-9465

Fax (306) 664-6226

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - MAY 11, 2007

 

LOWEST FOOD SUPPLIES IN 50 OR 100 YEARS: GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS EMERGING

 

SASKATOON, Sask.-Today, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)

released its first projections of world grain supply and demand for the

coming crop year: 2007/08. USDA predicts supplies will plunge to a 53-day

equivalent-their lowest level in the 47-year period for which data exists.

 

" The USDA projects global grain supplies will drop to their lowest

levels on

record. Further, it is likely that, outside of wartime, global grain

supplies have not been this low in a century, perhaps longer, " said NFU of Research Darrin Qualman.

 

Most important, 2007/08 will mark the seventh year out of the past eight in

which global grain production has fallen short of demand. This consistent

shortfall has cut supplies in half-down from a

115-day supply in 1999/00 to the current level of 53 days. " The world is

consistently failing to produce as much grain as it uses, " said Qualman. He

continued: " The current low supply levels are not the result of a transient

weather event or an isolated production problem: low supplies are the

result

of a persistent drawdown trend. "

 

In addition to falling grain supplies, global fisheries are faltering.

Reports in respected journals Science and Nature state that 1/3 of ocean

fisheries are in collapse, 2/3 will be in collapse by 2025, and our ocean

fisheries may be virtually gone by 2048. " Aquatic food systems are

collapsing, and terrestrial food systems are under tremendous stress, " said

Qualman.

 

Demand for food is rising rapidly. There is a worldwide push to proliferate

a North American-style meat-based diet based on intensive livestock

production-turning feedgrains into meat in this way means exchanging 3 to 7

kilos of grain protein for one kilo of meat protein. Population is

rising-2.5 billion people will join the global population in the coming

decades.

 

" Every six years, we're adding to the world the equivalent of a North

American population. We're trying to feed those extra people, feed a

growing livestock herd, and now, feed our cars, all from a static farmland

base. No one should be surprised that food production can't keep up, " said

Qualman.

 

Qualman said that the converging problems of natural gas and fertilizer

constraints, intensifying water shortages, climate change, farmland loss

and

degradation, population increases, the proliferation of livestock feeding,

and an increasing push to divert food supplies into biofuels means that we

are in the opening phase of an intensifying food shortage.

 

Qualman cautioned, however, that there are no easy fixes. " If we try to do

more of the same, if we try to produce, consume, and export more food while

using more fertilizer, water, and chemicals, we will only intensify our

problems. Instead, we need to rethink our relation to food, farmers,

production, processing, and distribution. We need to create a system

focused on feeding people and creating health. We need to strengthen the

food production systems around the world. Diversity, resilience, and

sustainability are key, " concluded Qualman.

 

For More Information:

Darrin Qualman, Director of Research:

652-9465

Stewart Wells, NFU President:

773-6852

 

Backgrounder to the NFU's May 11, 2007 news release

 

The United States Department of Agriculture reports recent grain supply and

demand numbers on its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

website at

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194

<http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194>

 

 

<http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194

<http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194>>

 

The longer-term data on world grains supply and demand is at

Production, Supply, and Demand Online (PSD) at

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdhome.aspx

<http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdhome.aspx>

<http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdhome.aspx

<http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdhome.aspx>>

 

The NFU created the graph below using USDA data from the above-noted sites.

The graph takes stocks/use ratios ( " ending stocks " divided by " total use " )

and multiplies these percentages by

365 to get a more intuitive " days of supply " number.

 

Note that the graph projects supplies for the upcoming year to hit their

lowest record levels-lower even than the 1973 levels that spurred a rapid

price increase. Note also the unprecedented and

steep downward trendline for the past 8 years.