OT: Update on Venezuela

[Guest guest]

Hey Janet .. and other good folks ..

 

A little follow on to my note on Venezuela. I got with an old buddy who

is an airline executive running the southern circuit .. and he gave me

this post that came to him from an oil company executive in Caracas ..

sent to him just a few days ago. Sorta interesting to see happenings

from the perspective of the man on the ground.

 

Y'all keep smiling, Butch http://www.AV-AT.com

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Dated: Saturday, January 18, 2003 3:57 PM

Venezuela News

 

Things are heating up here very quickly. The Circulos Chavistas were on

the move last night and it appears that the instigation was the

unbelievable behavior yesterday of the National Guard general when he

illegally took over the Polar and Coca-Cola plants. His grotesque

behavior was flashed around the world. I even saw it on CNN.

 

The Circulos Chavistas (the armed branch of the Chavistas) have been

running around on their motorbikes all last evening and today firing

their weapons into the air, threatening people and generally being a

nuisance. They are calling for everyone to come down from the hills and

" defend the revolution " .

 

Fortunately for the rest of Venezuelan society, the call appears to be

going unanswered. We expect action this evening from these same Circulos

so we have meetings in a short while to work out the evening strategy

for the different groups.

 

On the other hand, Chavez is in Brazil where he is trying to stuff the

new mediation group, " Friends of Venezuela " (a group of countries,

including the US, which are trying to find a solution to the VE

problem), with " friendly countries " such as Russia, Algeria, etc.

Apparently Lula from Brazil has told him to desist from such activity.

 

At the same time, we have just received word that the government section

of the Mediation Table (which has been in session for 3 months without

any results whatsoever), is thinking about pulling out of the talks.

They allege that they cannot discuss any peace or electoral process with

a Fascist and coupster group. Looks like things are going to get worse

for the government very quickly.

 

It looks like the government is gearing up to attack the opposition

media. It appears they will come up with some lame legal theory which

will allow them to shut down the TV and radio stations for 3 days. This

" decree " or ruling by some judge could come at any time. If the TV's go

blank, we know that the action will not be far behind that.

 

We have also received intelligence that the Circulos are planning major

actions over the next few days. The plan is called " Operacion Volcan "

and entails attacking different parts of the city at the same time. The

purpose is to have the opposition react in a violent manner which would

result in escalating violence throughout the country. After a few days

of total chaos, the government would step in with Chavista members of

the military to restore order while at the same time decreeing a " state

of exception " , thereby suspending all constitutional rights for

Venezuelan citizens for at least 60 days, suspend the Congress and run

the state into a military protectorate with all authority vested in one

person - Chavez.

 

This would, in effect, put Chavez in complete control, stop the general

referendum on his ouster as president scheduled for Feb. 2 (2 weeks from

now), and consolidate his supporters in the military.

 

Our best guess is that things will " pop " here over the next few days.

The code sign for action on the part of the Chavistas is " fire in the

23 " (Fuego en el 23). The opposition will not take this laying down and

will most likely go to the streets in massive numbers. This will add to

the confusion and chaos and which will allow the Chavistas to create

even more havoc.

 

Not a nice scenario but then again, the alternative is even worse.

Should Chavez gain military control over this country, we will end up

with a war that no one wants (except the Chavistas). Let's hope the

military does not succumb to the temptations of the Chavez regime and

the offers of millions of dollars to be on the Chavista side.

 

One bright sign is that the middle officers and troops are sick and

tired of the situation, do not receive any of the government largesse

bestowed upon the higher ranks, and their families are suffering greatly

from this situation. Their families are also, in the majority, in favor

of the strike and the ouster of Chavez. It is not unthinkable that some

lower level officers are the saviors of the Venezuelan people.

 

I'll write more later as things develop. Right now we have to be stingy

with the gas since there is none available and we have a half tank in

each of the cars. Imagine Caracas without gas! I'm heading out to a

meeting and will be back later to await developments. Regards, XXXXX