EU to boost military in face of climate change (OT)

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EU to boost military in face of climate

changeA “nexus of powers” may at some point be

assumed by the EU

March 18, 2008 ·

EU OBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The European Union

should boost its civil and military capacities to respond to “serious

security risks” resulting from catastrophic climate change expected this

century, according to a joint report from the EU’s two top foreign policy

officials.

The EU and member states should further build up their capabilities

with regards to civil protection, and civil and military crisis

management and disaster response instruments to react to the security

risks posed by climate change, reads a paper by EU foreign policy chief

Javier Solana and external relations commissioner Benita

Ferrero-Waldner.

The seven-page paper, to be submitted to EU leaders at a summit in

Brussels later this week, warns of a range of stark scenarios, in

particular the threat of an intensified “scramble for resources” – both

energy and mineral – in the Arctic “as previously inaccessible regions

open up.”

The rapid melting of the polar ice caps is seen as a great opportunity

for far-northern economies, as the “increased accessibility of the

enormous hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic region” mean new waterways

and international trade routes open for business where once there was

only ice.

But this does not come without certain hazards. The report highlights the

threat to Europe from Russia. “The resulting new strategic interests are

illustrated by the recent planting of the Russian flag under the North

Pole.”

Eco-migration

Additionally, the report suggests that Europe will come under increasing

pressure from so-called eco-migration.

“Europe must expect substantially increased migratory pressure,” says the

report. “Populations that already suffer from poor health conditions,

unemployment or social exclusion are rendered more vulnerable to the

effects of climate change, which could amplify or trigger migration

within and between countries.”

The document notes that the UN has predicted that there will be millions

of environmental migrants by 2020, and warns that the pressure will not

only come from beyond Europe’s borders, but that climate change “is also

likely to exacerbate internal migration with significant security

consequences.”

Other worries include water shortages and the consequent food price

increases that result from lower crop yields, all of which could lead to

civil unrest, particularly in the Middle East. This in turn puts pressure

on energy security.

“Significant decreases [in crop yields] are expected to hit Turkey, Iraq,

Syria and Saudi Arabia and thus affect stability in a vitally strategic

region for Europe,” predicts the report, while “water supply in Israel

might fall by 60 percent over this century.”

The document also warns of major changes to landmass leading to

territorial disputes, political radicalisation in poorer regions of the

world, and the effects that sea-level rises and increases in the

frequency and intensity of natural disasters would have on port cities

and oil refineries.

For the most part, however, much of the climate-change-based security

risks mentioned in the report have been listed elsewhere. What is new is

the proposal of the incorporation of risks resulting from climate change

into European defence policy thinking.

The report also proposes an intensification of the EU’s research,

monitoring and early warning capacity regarding climate-change-based

security risks and an improvement of the bloc’s early response capacity

to disasters and conflicts.

The two foreign policy chiefs would furthermore like to see a focus on

climate security risks at the international level - in particular within

the UN Security Council and the G8 – and within EU regional strategies

such as the European Neighbourhood Policy, the EU-Africa Strategy and

Middle East and Black Sea policies.

Specifically, the pair say that there should be a development of regional

security scenarios for the various possible levels of climate change

envisaged.

But some are worried about the direction proposed in the

document.

“Some of these recommendations may well be sensible, but there’s no way

of knowing until they’re fleshed out. The devil is in the detail. It’s

important to know what powers the EU will assume in the event,” said Bunyan, head of civil liberties group Statewatch.

He referred to a “nexus of powers” that may at some point be assumed by

either the EU or member states.

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