Latest News on SARS from the LANCET

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Latest News on SARS from the LANCET

 

Research by UK epidemiologists and scientists from Hong Kong,

fast-tracked for publication on THE LANCET's website, reports

results of the first major epidemiological study about severe acute

respiratory syndrome (SARS). Authors of the study highlight how

concerted efforts to reduce the time from the onset of symptoms to

quarantining in hospital is one of the most important public-health

measures to reduce transmission and to potentially eradicate the

disease.

 

Christl Donnelly, Roy Anderson, and colleagues from Imperial

College London, UK, the University of Hong Kong, and the

Department of Health in Hong Kong, studied 1425 SARS cases

from Hong Kong up to April 28, 2003. They report how, after the

initial phase of exponential growth in SARS cases, public-health

interventions have led to confirmed SARS cases dropping below 20

per day by April 28. Examples of such measures include the

encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after the onset of

clinical symptoms, the tracing of contacts of confirmed and

suspected cases and quarantining, and the monitoring and

restriction of travel for contacts.

 

The average incubation period of SARS was estimated to be 6.4

days; the average time from the onset of clinical symptoms to

hospital admission varied from 3-5 days-with longer intervals

reported earlier in the epidemic. The case fatality rate, among

those admitted to hospital, in patients >/=60 years of age is

estimated to be far higher (43%, 95% confidence interval 35-52%)

than in those <60 (13%, 95% confidence interval 10-17%). Similar

estimates were obtained by a second method: 55% (95%

confidence interval 45-65%) for those aged >/=60 and 6.8% (95%

confidence interval 4-10%) in those <60. Furthermore, they

comment that additional infections in the community that do not

lead to hospitalisation or death would lower this fatality-rate

estimate.

 

Christl Donnelly comments: " Although this study shows that the

fatality rate from SARS is higher than previously thought, we now

know that public-health interventions have been successfully

reducing the spread of the disease. "

 

Roy Anderson comments: " The epidemic has demonstrated the

need for communication of risk which will inform and warn the

public, in a way which will improve personal protection, without

inducing high levels of anxiety and fear, as an essential part of

epidemic control. A change in risk perception would potentially

lead to an increase in early reporting of symptoms as well as

improvements in hygiene and prevention of transmission. "

 

This study has been published at the link below:

www.thelancet.com/journal/vol361/iss9368/full/llan.361.9368.early_o

nline_publication.25595.1

 

 

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