OT: Political Conditions in Turkey

[Guest guest]

Hi Jo Ann .. other good folks ..

 

This is an OT post .. a report on current events that are political

in nature .. those who don't want to hear about it should zap it now.

 

> Butch,

> My husband was stationed in Turkey in the 70s when he was in the USAF

> and has always retained an interest in the area. He asked me to write

> you and ask your opinion on the current political situation in Turkey

> with the conflict between the secularist and the hard line Muslims.

 

Be glad to .. but lemme first clarify that the present government

claims that they are not Hard Line Moslem .. they are " Moderate "

Moslems. Both Abdullah Gul (candidate for President) and Tayyip

Erdogan (leader of the Justice and Development Party (AK) and current

Prime Minister, reject the label of Islamist. They claim the

government has shown openess and friendship to the West and has

secured economic stability with help from the International Monetary

Fund, and they are actively seeking European Union membership (which I

believe will never happen).

 

On the other hand, they have supported religious schools and tried to

lift the ban on Islamic head scarves in public offices. Both of these

actions are big time NO NOs in Turkey! Some of the AK Party mayors in

various towns have done all they can to stifle the issuance of liquer

licenses .. not a good sign for those who are Islam watchers. The

Secularists also oppose the idea of Abdullah Gul's wife living in the

Presidential Palace because she wears a Muslim head scarf .. which is

seen (not without justification) as a symbol of Political Islam here

in Turkey.

 

There is a good bit of fear here now .. like " does smoking marijuana

lead to use of stronger drugs? " In that case, abstinence is the best

policy and in the case of Turkish politics .. not allowing Islamics to

gain a strong position in the government is seen as the best policy.

 

> Specially he was wondering if you thought the military might step in

> and take over the government.

 

In this case I believe (and hope) it will not happen. But if protests

of the people, the major corporations, the trade organizations, the

Bureaus of Chambers of Commerce and the courts can NOT stop it .. and

I believe they might stop it .. then the military weill have no

choice. I also think that if necessary, the military can force change

via decree and force of will and leave the soldiers in the barracks.

 

> We realize that you may be unable to answer because you live there and

> it could cause problems for you. If so we understand.

 

Thanks .. but I would not live in any country where I couldn't speak

my mind. There are certain laws here (not unlike slander laws in the

USA) that make it illegal to " insult " the government, the flag, the

nation, the courts, the military and the memory of Mustafa Kemal

Ataturk .. the father of Modern Turkey. http://www.ataturk.com/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Kemal_Atat%C3%BCrk

 

I would never insult any of them .. but I don't prefer the present AK

government, I think the flag is pretty, I think the Nation has much to

offer Europe but Europe has nothing to offer Turkey, I think the court

system has become wrapped around the axle of detail and cases drag on

for years .. like one I have had against a firm for fraud for over two

years, I think the military (General Staff) is the legitimate guardian

of democracy in Turkey .. but there are up sides and down sides to

that .. and I am a loyal supporter of the memory of and the path of

reform laid out by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. In all of history only two

men have rebelled against their own government, fought a Revolutionary

War and won .. been offered a position of Royalty but turned it down,

and were elected as First President of their country, and then made

lasting social, economic, political changes that last to this day.

Those two men are George Washington and Mustafa Kemal Ataturk!

 

I am a graduate of the Turkish General Staff University .. to which

the top 5% of the Turkish military are chosen to attend each year ..

upon graduation after 2 years they are General Staff Officers .. and

tried and true Kemalists. It is this small elite group that commands

above company grade and only these officers make General Officer rank.

Their mission is to be the guardians of the principles and path of

Ataturk - which include insuring Democracy, Modernization, Capitolism,

Westernization and SECULARIZATION! They will not shirk this duty.

 

Turkish citizens have become accustomed to (and many even expect) the

military to step in to correct political problems instead of allowing

the process of evolutionary change to bring maturity to the system.

There is little maturity in the political system because they had too

many breaks in the evolutionary process. The military has stepped in

before (in 1960, 1971 and 1980 .. and then in 1997 it intervened

without leaving the barracks (by decree) to force Turkey's first

Islamist Prime Minister, Necmettin Erbakan, from power. One of the

main leaders of the 1997 whammy was and still is a very close friend

of mine .. but I believe that this must be done through the democratic

system now .. and I would not hestitate to tell him this if he asks.

I can voice opinions here that would not be acceptable for other

foreigners to voice because they know I'm not the enemy .. I care

about what happens to Turkey.

 

That 1997 decree was legal .. they swayed the Chambers of Commerce ..

the top corporations .. the courts .. and the people .. to protest the

actions of Erbakan and he was, in fact, violating the Constitution.

My friend was on TV nightly slamming Erbakan and giving clear warnings

and then the military wrote a formal letter to the government and said

that if they didn't correct their wrong doings they might be forced to

step in .. so Erbakan decided to resigned in the face of an almost

certain coup. But we have a case now where there is JUSTIFIED and

RATIONAL FEAR that the government will be wrong in the future ..

however, there are no technical legal violations now where a court

could nail someone to the wall and such.

 

In the present dispute, I believe that the people of Turkey will stop

the Moslem Party candidate from becoming President .. in the last few

months in one case over 600,000 folks protested the government .. and

yesterday (contrary to what some news agencies are reporting) close to

two million (of Istanbul's 14 million population) protested.

 

If the AK Party wins the presidency they are in a position to load the

courts and ministries with Islamics but that is what democracy is all

about. The Republicans in the USA load the system with Conservatives

and the Democrats load the system with Liberals .. its the norm in a

democracy. When one group does badly voters bring in another group ..

and the way the so-called " moderate " Islamic party got in was the same

way the Democrats won in the last US Congressional election .. people

didn't necessarily vote FOR the AK Party or the Democrats .. they

voted AGAINST the other parties because the American Republicans had

screwed up a lot of things and the other Turkish parties were seen as

being corrupt. Though there is corruption in the AK Party its no

where near what it was perceived to be in the other parties. This is

like the situation we find now in Afghanistan .. total corruption of

the system now .. but there was no corruption under the Taliban so

unfortunately, the hearts and minds of the people are moving back

toward the Taliban. Little folks in Afghanistan don't really know

what Democracy is .. but they know what larceny and war lord and

government corruption is and they will choose to not be free if they

can avoid being screwed over and having to pay money to fat cats.

 

Back to Turkey .. the smart, educated, secular population is

outnumbered by the less educated Moslem masses. On one hand we can

say that this means that the majority should rule .. but the problem

is that the will of the majority is against the Principles of Ataturk

and the philosophy of Kemalism. When Ataturk died he left marching

orders for the military and they take them seriously .. they see this

as a license to herd the sheep. Being a retired military man, I know

Army Officers don't make good sheep herders .. or political leaders.

 

It would bore some folks, but I could provide demographic data that

any one who has a calculator can verify .. to support a strong case

that in time, Europe will experience problems similar to what Turkey

is now having .. its all a part of a plan and little can be done

except for Europeans to start having more babies and tighten up

immigration.

 

Back to Turkey .. on Wednesday the Parliament will again try to elect

a President. There are two candidates .. both from the AK Party ..

one is not worth mentioning but the other, Foreign Minister Abdullah

Gul, is the one AK party is trying to put into the President's seat.

On Friday he received 357 votes from the 550 member Parliament .. 10

shy of the 367 required to be elected with a two-thirds quorum. But

most of the opposition legislators boycotted that first round of

voting and they have appealed its validity in the Constitutional

Court. If the court rules in favor of the appeal, then new (early)

general elections could be called. A second round of voting is

scheduled for Wednesday .. and I expect to see similar results. The

Constitutional Court says they will issue a ruling by that day.

 

However, if the court does not support the appeal of the opposition ..

and it gets to the third round .. on 9 May .. Gul is likely to win

because then a minimum of 276 votes will be required.

 

If this happens .. if the AK Party goes ahead with electing one of

their members to be the President .. it means that the will of the

people and the business community and such .. will be disregarded.

 

I met and talked Kemalism with Abdullah Gul some years ago and I found

him to be (in my opinion) a pretty straight shooter. Lately, he made

astatement to the Milliyet Newspaper .. " I am loyal to the republic,

to secularism, to the principles of a democratic, social state ruled

by law, as stated in the constitution in essence. " And perhaps he is

but he is considered to be an Islamist and that is that!

 

But even more importantly, if the AK Party goes ahead and votes Gul

into office, it will mean that the will of the Turkish General Staff

has been disregarded .. and considering that it is their mission to

guard the principles of secularization (despite the grousing of the

EU) and the clear message the military has given .. they might have no

choice but to step in. The message the military has given is:

 

" It should not be forgotten that the Turkish Armed Forces is one of

the sides in this debate and the absolute defender of secularism.

When necessary, they will display their attitudes and actions very

clearly. No one should doubt that. "

 

If it goes down .. it will be the third one I have lived through here

and there will be no blood letting and such .. the Turkish Military is

not feared by the citizens .. they are not dictators. Each time they

stepped in it was after many warnings and even then the decision was a

reluctant one because they knew that the economy (as well as the march

forward of democracy) would suffer for a while. In the past the

military forced elections again and the country got back on the path

of democracy .. but when one " destroys democracy " in order to save it

there will be some obvious negative economic and political effects.

 

The creation and continuation of the Republic of Turkey as a Modern,

Secular, Moslem country is something few Westerners really understand.

One would have to be a student of history and then live here to grasp

the differences between governmental relationships here and those in

Europe or the USA. As pro democratic as I am .. and having lived in

and honored a system where the military was subordinate to the elected

government .. if it comes down to a choice of having the Turkish Armed

Forces step in .. or having to gamble on what the actions of AK Party

might be if they gain the presidency, I would be forced to vote for

the Military to do their unfortunate duty!

 

> Jo Ann Nourse

 

Y'all have a good one .. and keep smiling. :-) Butch