OT: Trouble in Turkey

May 13, 2007

Hi Jeff,

> Butch,

> Excellent message on the situation in Turkey. I think you've hit a

number

> of nails right on the heads - The Europeans have called Turkey the " sick

> man of Europe " since the Crimean war in the late 1800's. Other Muslim

> countries in the region are still largely stigmatized by the Ottoman

> Turks and their activities.

That was pretty much the case .. takes a long time for folks to forget

being ruled by an Empire .. even if that empire was benevolent. ;-)

Of course, the Ottoman Empire was but one in succession of empires to

rule Southern Europe and the Near and Middle East.

> This political battle between the secularist and the " mildly Islamics "

> is for no less than the political soul of Turkey.

Yep .. matter of fact that is .. and its a battle for the Identity of

the Turk. Western Liberals will readily admit that there are

different degrees/levels of Democracy - and that even the American

form can't be superimposed on Europe .. and vice versa. They are

correct because its not about form of government .. its about Human

Rights and citizens electing their leaders and Freedom of Choice (up

to a point).

However, some in the West - especially the European Union .. which has

taken Europe a bit backwards when it comes to citizens electing those

who will enact laws directing their daily lives .. are not ready to

allow Turkey to have this " different degree " of Democracy.

A test of their tolerance is in the making now. Just last Thursday the

(so-called moderate Islamic rooted) AL Party overwhelmingly approved a

constitutional amendment that would allow the Turkish people - not the

Parliament - to elect the next president. The amendment was passed

after opposition party leaders boycotted the vote that would have

allowed the Parliament (dominated by AK Party) to elect their

candidate (Abdullah Gul) for president because they feared his

election would increase the influence of religion in Turkish politics.

The Secular President (ex-Constitutional Court Justice Sezar) can

decide to veto this change. If he does this the proposed change will

go back to Parliament and most likely be passed again .. at which time

Sezar would have to take it to a referendum.

Either way, general elections have been moved forward to 22 July ..

here is where a TEST of European Union tolerance and understanding

will take place. It is possible that the people of Turkey can again

choose the AK Party as #1 .. villagers who are socially/economically

peasant farmers who depend on religion to ease their lives as they

depend on their fields to feed their families .. outnumber educated,

sophisticated, politically astute voters. If this happens, AK Party

would again attempt to put their candidate in the President's chair.

This would necessarily force Turkey to choose between adhering to a

strict interpretation of Western Democracy by allowing a party that

might want to Islamize Turkey and destroy the Democratic gains of the

last 80 + years .. OR .. to Destroy Democracy AGAIN in order to save it~!

The educated, Western minded, politically savvy, Secular citizens,

though perhaps outnumbered by their less sophisticated, religious

countrymen, know that it would be political/social suicide to allow

them to control the future of Turkey. One of the failings of emerging

Democracies is the chance that the majority might not be fit to rule!

In all Western, Democratic countries .. primary emphasis is placed on

the rights of parents to raise their children .. but we know that the

rights of parents can become subordinate to the Welfare of the Child.

This can be compared to allowing a country to be ruled by a majority

that might be unfit to raise the country.

Regardless of what the EU might like to see .. if it comes down to a

test of the Will of the Majority vs a Modern, Secular, Western leaning

Republic of Turkey .. the latter will win out. The Turkish General

Staff (true Kemalists and proven defenders of a Secular Turkey) would

NEVER allow Islam to rule this country .. and for this I (and millions

of others) are truly thankful!

I am certain that the Military Commands in the USA or the UK or other

Western countries would NEVER stay in their barracks if they saw their

countries unraveling. There are few in the American Congress or the

British Parliament who are naive enough to disagree with me. It is

only the American and British public who believes that civilian

control over the military is a reality that can never change!

> The military and minority parties realize this and are trying to operate

> within the constitutional framework to resolve this issue.

In fact .. this is true .. but they're shooting at a moving target

because Constitutional changes occur frequently here. In practice,

the President should be non-partisan .. should not be a member of any

party. The idea of installing a President who has an agenda that is

contrary to the Constitutional requirements of Secular government

makes no sense .. only the United Nations does such ridiculous things

(note the next post I will send .. Mugabe of Zimbabwe to chair the UN

committee to promote economic progress).

With regard to some elections in Turkey and most of the appointments

of the DisUnited Nations, Winston Churchill's words come to mind, " No

one pretends that Democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has

been said that Democracy is the worst form of government except all

those other forms that have been tried from time to time. "

> However, I'd lived in Balikeshir in 1973/74 and watched the military

> take over at that time.

I've too have lived through a few military take overs here .. and in

all cases it was a reluctant take over .. and then only after the

military had warned the bad actors numerous times .. and after they

had gained the will (even the demand) of the educated people, the

courts and the other than political infrastructure. Also .. there was

a rapid return to Democracy .. unfortunately, in some cases allowing

Democracy to mature via trial and error is too costly for a country.

> Some friends are still in Izmir and all of us see the military posturing

> taking place. Militaries, by necessity, operate in routine/predictable

> manner. Currently, it appears the Generals are in the " get ready in

case "

> stage but are far enough along in their preparations that they will

be able

> to move with lightening speed if the June/July elections go sour

from their

> standpoint.

Absolutely correct. And in the past .. the rattling of sabers would

have been enough to get the message across .. but apparently, the AK

Party believes that the desires of the European Union will preclude

the military from doing what they know is right for Turkey.

I know that (1) less than 30% of the Turkish public wants Turkey to

join the EU .. (2) the Turkish Military doesn't consider the desires

of the EU as being a player in the game .. (3) it is the desire of the

Secular elements in Turkey to advance Democracy whereas it appears

that it is the desire of the EU Parliament to gain more control over

the lives of Europeans .. thus, restricting Democracy. And finally

(4) the EU will never accept Turkey in any case (thank the Great

Everywhere Spirit).

> Jeff Nourse

> (JoAnn's husband)

Thanks for the input podner .. have a nice weekend.

And y'all keep smiling. :-) Butch http://www.AV-AT.com

PS: Those who are political watchers/history buffs will recall that

in previous military take overs here in Turkey .. it mattered not if

the US Administration was Republican or Democrat .. there were no real

objections (other than minor regrets designed to soothe the sheeple

and reinforce America's commitment to Democracy) from either the

Executive or Legislative Branches of our government .. and few

objections from solid performing European governments .. the European

Parliament is a horse of a different color. Perhaps they fear for

their own survival.

> ISTANBUL -- There is a perfectly logical temptation to take the

> position of much of the non-native press on the current political

> crisis in Turkey. The argument goes something like this: Prime

> Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his " mildly Islamic " Justice and

> Development Party (AKP) are good for the country. They proposed

> Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul for president. Under the current

> constitution, parliament elects the president. Thus the AKP has a

> freely elected majority in parliament and represents the will of the

> people, therefore Mr. Gul should be president.

>

> The rest, observers argue, is just loud noise, such as the two massive

> demonstrations in 10 days in Ankara and Istanbul (the latter of a

> million or more people) in tandem with grim warnings by the military

> against any AKP violation of secularist principles. AKP, the argument

> goes, has played by the rules and democracy is all about due process,

> which produces stability over time.

>

> Turkey must accept that it is culturally Eastern but politically

> Western. Otherwise the EU will never take it, foreign investment will

> dry up and the country will remain excluded from the Western world. So

> goes the argument in favor of Mr. Erdogan as well as Mr. Gul, who

> withdrew his candidacy on Sunday.

May 13, 2007

Hi Butch,

Even here in the US we are starting to hear the rattling of sabers in

some quarters. We have had a number of Officers leave the service and

start to speak out about what has been going on behind closed doors.

Even some of the Generals that are still in service are starting to

make their voices heard. And both the major political parties are

showing signs of a division in their ranks.

Now you will not hear about it on the mainstream media evening

news,but those of us that depend on alternate sources for real news

have been aware of it for some time.

There is a growing movement here in the States that is waking up to

what is really going on in our government. And quite frankly we're not

going to take it for much longer. I think the establishment is going

to find it much harder than they think to get their pick pet into

office in 2008. This election is going to get nasty real soon.

You are choosing a great time to come home Butch. It could get real

interesting in the next 18 months.

Laurie Hoppe

, " Butch Owen " <butchbsi wrote:

> Absolutely correct. And in the past .. the rattling of sabers would

> have been enough to get the message across .. but apparently, the AK

> Party believes that the desires of the European Union will preclude

> the military from doing what they know is right for Turkey.

>

> I know that (1) less than 30% of the Turkish public wants Turkey to

> join the EU .. (2) the Turkish Military doesn't consider the desires

> of the EU as being a player in the game .. (3) it is the desire of the

> Secular elements in Turkey to advance Democracy whereas it appears

> that it is the desire of the EU Parliament to gain more control over

> the lives of Europeans .. thus, restricting Democracy. And finally

> (4) the EU will never accept Turkey in any case (thank the Great

> Everywhere Spirit).

>

> And y'all keep smiling. :-) Butch http://www.AV-AT.com

>

May 13, 2007

Now you will not hear about it on the mainstream media evening

news,but those of us that depend on alternate sources for real news

have been aware of it for some time.

[Dave:] The mainstream media has also been entirely silent on the deathbed

confession of Howard Hunt re who killed JFK; the growing number of military

men and scientists who are publicly joining the 9/11 Truth Movement; and the

fact the Ron Paul of Texas wiped the place up with his opponents at the

Republican Debate.

You are choosing a great time to come home Butch. It could get real

interesting in the next 18 months.

[Dave:] Booyah. Personally I am not at all sure I would come back for

another few years, at least. On the other hand, I think you are moving to a

reasonably safe location.

_._,___

Version: 7.5.467 / Virus Database: 269.7.0/801 - Release 5/12/2007

6:40 PM

Version: 7.5.467 / Virus Database: 269.7.0/803 - Release 5/13/2007

12:17 PM

May 16, 2007

Hello Butch,

The continuing deterioration of the " Turkish Situation " has prompted another

email. The growing pro-secular protests should clearly indicate that the AK

Party is off on their own agenda. This is why I believe the AK Party continues

to defy the Generals with the purposeful notion of provoking a takeover. I'm bit

out on a a limb here but I'm beginning to believe that there may be a bigger

picture to be seen.

As of 2006, 10% of the total French population was Muslim. French Terrorist

Police and their #10 Bureau have dedicated nearly half of their assets to

tracking muslim terrorist activities against French interests domestically.

England has nearly 5% of their population Muslim (as did Germany, The

Netherlands and

Sweden) yet the bus bombings and Brittish expulsion of several Muslim Clerics

suggest the Muslim activist in England are the most dangerous in Northern

Europe. ( Germany had a " guest workers " program made up mostly of Turkish

laborer which gives them the largest Turkish population in Northern Europe.)

Italy and Spain closely follow France in Muslim population. Its important to

note that nearly 2/3rd of Barcellona's population is Muslim.

This creates a potentially huge domestic security problem for these countries.

Which, in turn, suggests that some accomodation to the Islamics is seen as a

good thing, particularly by the Liberals in the West.

I think Turkey, as the only Muslim nation close to getting into the EU

(Albania hasn't) might be a potential problem for the other EU nations.

Political/Social/Economic difficulties in an EU member nation requires an aid

response by other member nations which they would be reluctant to give in

Turkey's case especially if the secularist in Turkey continue to rein in the

Islamics and the Islamics in EU countries continue to expand their power.

Then you have the Greeks, already an EU member, will continue to block Turkish

membership for any number of reasons ie: Cyprus, and the historic hatred between

the Turks and the Greeks. (During a NATO exercise in late 1979, I watched a

Greek officer detail the Turks encampment to the flood plain of a river. I

pointed out that at the Battle Staff briefing the weather was for rain. The

Greek responded that he was hoping for a heavy rain to wash them away and that

any opportunity to screw the Turks should not be missed.)

Many current Turkish Generals have had such experiences first hand as they

moved up the ranks and went to NATO/multinational assignments.

I'm afraid that Turkey may have become the center pawn in a new Christian

West/Muslim East confrontation. The liberals in the West dislike the Turks for

their militarist stand while hating the religious setting in their own

countries. The orthodox Muslims in the East

dislike the Turks for their secular stand and look to expand Islam' control

where ever possible. Both seem bent on undermining secular Turkey - and the

Turkish General Staff knows this.

The hue and cry against the Pope for his " insensative " remarks on Islam was

launched in the Liberal West and picked up by the Muslim East, not the other way

around as I'd expect. However, it was in the muslim centers in the West where

the most horrific damage to people and property (non-Muslim people and property)

occurred. The same Liberal West bent on denouncing the Turkish General Staff for

their warnings to the AK Party and other

Islamists in Turkey. Further, I don't believe it was an accident that the Pope

chose Turkey to visit inorder to smooth over his remarks as it was the " Liberal

Islamics " in the Turkish Government who appeared to be the most welcoming of

this visit.

I'd dismiss most of this as coincidence until I was told that one of the main

drivers in the Pope Benedict/Ayatolla Khameni meeting last month was Alexander

Putin. Why would the current Russian President participate in brokering a

meeting between the Pope and the former President of Iran?(Khameni is the third

ranking Ayatolla in the Shiite Religion and is widely believed he'll be elevated

to Grand Ayatolla soon) The Pope's denounciation of the Turkish Generals for

their intruding into Turkish politics is what appears to tie this together (In

association with the same denounciation from the French, Italians and Spanish).

I think the Turkish General Staff might be looking at a far bigger picture

than most of us suspect. This notion on my part has big holes in it, but

speculation on what is going on when you're on the outside looking in is always

tough. I do not believe there is some plot by the Pope. My first contact with

Ratzinger was when he was Bishop of Munich. I'd be stunned if he were

manipulating this - I do think he may be getting manipulated.

The take home is I believe both Islamics and EU want a weak, isolated Turkey.

In a Middle

East war, all side would either want the Turks as their ally or a very weak

neutral. It takes money to fuel the military, something a weak, isolated Turkey

would not have. As " the hood " incident shows, the Turks aren't ones to shy away

from cross border military operations. Such operations are unlikely if the

military is busy with domestic issues.

Keep your head down.

Regards,

Jeff Nourse

Jo Ann <nour6128 wrote:

, " Butch Owen "

wrote:

Hi Jeff,

> Butch,

> Excellent message on the situation in Turkey. I think you've hit a

number

> of nails right on the heads - The Europeans have called Turkey

the " sick

> man of Europe " since the Crimean war in the late 1800's. Other

Muslim

> countries in the region are still largely stigmatized by the

Ottoman

> Turks and their activities.

That was pretty much the case .. takes a long time for folks to forget

being ruled by an Empire .. even if that empire was benevolent. ;-)

Of course, the Ottoman Empire was but one in succession of empires to

rule Southern Europe and the Near and Middle East.

> This political battle between the secularist and the " mildly

Islamics "