Rose Production ** Climate Change ** Was Rosemary, Now # 6

[Guest guest]

Hey Kathleen,

 

Gonna make this one a multi-subject post .. cause I'm running out of time

today and wanna put out some info while the Spirit is Moving me. ;-)

 

 

> > " 6. If you come back to me for more info I'll get back to you but

> >it'll be late as I'm about to cut out for Clarksville, Tn (60 miles

> >away) for an initial evaluation of a VA claim I've had in the mill

> f>or a couple of years .. I'm doing a Snoopy Happy Dance right now.

> >Eight years in Field Artillery and 1,000 + hours flying PSYOP beside

> >a 1,000 Watt speaker .. prior to getting out of all that and going

> >into the more logical MP Corps .. sorta played havoc on my hearing ..

> >and its maybe twice as bad as it was when I retired and Uncle Sugar

> >recognized the handicap. "

>

> COOL BEANS AND 'BOUT TIME!!!!! I'm thrilled for you Butch!

>

 

Thankee ma'am .. at least now I am in the system and have a follow up

appointment on Friday .. meaning .. I can not make the AT Shindig in

Austin. :-( Last time I missed a VA appointment was better than 2 years

ago .. I came in from Turkey to Charleston, SC and made an appointment with

the VA Hospital there .. I stayed in the USA 2 months but the appointment

came up after I had returned to Turkey so I missed it.

 

I never dreamed that all the humma-humma required to get back into the US

system of living would be so complicated. I criticized the Turkish

bureaucratic system for years but now that I look back on it .. considering

that there were ways of getting ahead of the snail's pace if one had

connections .. which I had .. I see that their system was not all that bad.

My blood pressure yesterday was 125 over 75 .. for a 65 year old who has

been kicked around by life from time to time .. I reckon that is good for

sure. But my heart rate was 105 .. it used to run 65-75 .., meaning .. even

though I thrived on stress for most of my life and I am outwardly dealing

with stress efficiently even today .. I ain't lying to the old bod. ;-)

 

So .. unfortunately, I'm not gonna make the AT Shindig in Austin .. it'll be

the first one I've missed and really wish I could make it. I wanted to show

off Alexander again .. knowing that those who met him last year would be

surprised at the physical and mental growth that little rascal has

achieved. He'll not be 18 months old till 5 September but he's functioning

like most 3 year old children now. A calculating mind he has .. when faced

with a problem even the first time around .. he quickly analyzes it and

deals with it .. like yesterday he was seriously pushing his bubble making

lawnmower and came to the area where the water sprinkler was on. He

watched the direction the drops were falling and figured out the timing ..

then ran the mower back and forth under the sprinkler without getting wet.

When he saw me laughing he realized that I thought he was doing something

good so he started grinning and continued to push his mower back and forth

under the sprinkler while avoiding the water. ;-) Not a day passes that

he does not surprise me with his ability to effectively deal with what he

sees as problems or barriers to something he wants to do. ;-)

 

At the Austin shindig .. one of the subjects I was gonna talk about was the

effects of climate change on aromatic plants and I intended to give my

opinions on the near term changes in availability and pricing that we are

gonna face .. but I'm not gonna be there .. so I reckon I'll touch on it a

tad here today.

 

My opinion is that there will be many rather rapid ecological changes over

the next 30 years or so .. assuming a 1 degree F change, etc. I believe

that there will probably be some new oils in use in AT which will require

detailed analysis and double blind tested, peer reviewed safety data if they

are to be allowed .. basically, some plants we use today will be replaced by

others with similar chemical profiles .. its not just a matter of economics

... its also about evolution and survival or the fittest .. its long been an

ongoing thing .. few species of life have escaped these changes.

 

Even the half degree F (.5) change noted in the last 100 years or so is

being noted for some aromatics in the fields and at the stills. I want to

avoid the scientific humma-humma which is to a large degree based on

speculation and/or vested interests of this or that group .. the following

is a bit of observation and a bit of speculation/extrapolation. Climate

change is occurring .. its not the first time and it'll not be the last time

... the reasons are yet to be fixed though odds are the combination of causes

are probably as complicated as was the combination that created life in the

first places. The effects of these changes will be seen by all .. the

causes will be debated long after we're all under snakes.

 

Over the centuries, critters and plant life have either made major

biological changes in order to adapt .. or they have become extinct. Rapid

climatic changes usually resulted in the latter .. and there have been many

periods in the history of Earth where climatic changes were rapid. Odds are

great (according to the scientific folks) that the climatic changes we're

experiencing now will be relatively rapid .. if they continue at the present

pace. Some present changes I am aware of have turned some of my suspicions

into opinions on how they will affect those of us in the business in the

near term

 

Increased drought and increased flooding is already having an impact on all

life. This area of Tennessee had a one week freeze in April .. and since

early July we've not had rain .. the locals say its the driest year since

the early 1950s. I can see what I think is a change on my back patio .. my

humming birds are still here though they should have migrated already. Is

this an isolated event? Maybe .. but we also have a large number of

very young critters now .. young wild turkeys and spotted fawns and just two

days ago Alexander cornered a tiny cotton tail rabbit that was no more than

a couple of weeks old. Folks in these parts say all of this is

unusual. But its plants we're dealing with now so I'll stick to plants.

 

Basically, in many areas plants are changing their routines .. waking up

earlier and going to sleep earlier. Many plants here are (in my opinion)

too stressed now and they'll likely not make it to Green Up alive. I'm doing

what I can now to give my favorite trees a better chance of surviving ..

watering them once a week. Fortunately, my well is reaching into an aquifer

that has never gone dry .. we're alongside the Tennessee River .. and county

officials have recommended folks water their trees. Plants that wake up

early and decide to bloom sometimes get caught in early frosts, which

stresses them greatly .. in order to repair the damage they then need an

ideal season of balanced temperature and moisture .. which doesn't always

happen and that is the case here this year.

 

Believing as I do that " Every little bit helps said the old man who spat in

the ocean " , I believe that mankind has contributed to SOME degree to the

climatic changes we are facing now .. but over the centuries earthquakes,

volcanos, major fires that burned till there was little left to burn .. and

heavenly bodies dropping out of the sky have also cause climatic changes. I

also believe there is little mankind can do in the short term to remedy the

situation .. the die is cast. Probably our children .. and certainly their

children .. will become used to some different types of plant life than we

take for granted today .. that is .. if Big Brother doesn't restrict our

access to natural aromatics twixt now and then .. that is possible and we

see it happening with some of the ridiculous decisions being forced on

citizens in the Union of Socialist Republics of Europe now.

 

Whether the changes our children and grandchildren will face will be better

or worse is debatable .. and even then its debatable within the framework of

what we consider to be " normal " today .. which of course, will change along

with everything else. For sure things will be different .. the only thing

constant on Earth is constant change.

 

One major change noted in the last 3 years is a decrease in the production

of Rose Otto (Rosa damascena) from Damask Roses. Turkey and Bulgaria are

the major producers in the world .. Turkey produces approximately 55%,

Bulgaria approximately 30% and the remainder is produced .. in order of

production .. by India, China, Russia, various " Stans and other small

producers that rarely export. An aside note .. only the Turkish and

Bulgarian Rose Otto can be considered as Top Quality! Both Turkey and

Bulgaria had approximately 10% lower yield in 2006 than in 2005 .. but the

2007 crop was even worse in both countries; both produced 30-35% less this

year than they produced in the 2006 crop year. Prices for absolutely pure,

commercial, hydro-distilled 2007 Rose Otto were roughly DOUBLE that of the

2006 crop .. and there is NONE to be had in Turkey this year .. European

perfumeries fought each other to bid for the meagre supply. In the last two

weeks I have talked with the two major distilleries in Turkey .. I know how

much each produced and to whom they sold products. I didn't talk to the

French distillers because they don't sell much to the public anyway and I

wouldn't buy their product if they did because they triple cohobate to get

that last silly milliliter. The reasons for this drop in production are

primarily climate change .. though there are also some labor problems in

Bulgaria due to their entrance into the EU.

 

Keep in mind that folks like us use maybe 3% - 5% of the essential oils

produced .. the lion's share is consumed by the food flavoring and perfumery

industries .. followed by the pharmaceutical industry and a few other

commercial interests. They can afford to compete for scarce commodities ..

we have a tough time doing that.

 

Another shortfall this year was in the Turkish wild grown Origanums ..

plants were greatly stressed by an early cold snap and then a continuous

lack of sufficient moisture. This was not something that went down only in

the wild and woolly Eastern provinces where most wild grown aromatics are

found .. it has affected the major cities .. water shortages are common in

Turkey this year. Count on a major price increase in the Originums. It

appears that this inclement weather also had a negative effect on Salvia

fruticosa and Vitex agnus castus .. but as far as I've been able to learn ..

the wild grown Myrtus communis and Laurus nobilis crops were good .. most

likely because most of them are growing in areas where water is plentiful ..

cloud cover is common .. and humidly is high.

 

Just as Americans were for many years spoiled by low gasoline prices ..

while most of the rest of the Western world was paying 5 to 8 times more ..

in the future .. the worlds of Aromatherapy and Perfumery are going to have

to get used to higher prices. In fact, for many years now most Essential

Oil prices have not kept up with cost of production in any case ..

production of EO wild grown aromatics is much like farming .. the major

difference is that most Western farmers are covered by insurance or some

form of subsidy when crops fail .. not true for those who maintain

commercial stills and are forced to let them lay idle .. or for those in the

Third World and Emerging Market countries who cultivate or harvest wild

grown aromatic crops.

 

I mentioned above that I believe there is little mankind can do now to

effect major changes .. that does not mean that we should not do anything ..

back to the spitting in the ocean I am now.

 

I don't buy everything written in the article below .. but its worth a read

I reckon. It states that there will be many scientific, technical and

socio-economic challenges resulting from climate change .. this is not new

... its just a return to the beginning of the Great Circle of Life .. and if

history repeats itself (as is the norm) we will also see reasons for an

increase in man's inhumanity to man .. its inevitable.

 

http://news-service.stanford.edu/pr/03/root18.html

 

I don't like the term " Global Warming " because it has become a rallying

point for political polarization for the left and the right .. so I stick to

the term " Climate Change " .. and try to avoid the political issues.

 

We're living in the best of times now .. enjoy it as best you can. :-P

 

 

> --

> Cheers!

> Kathleen Petrides

> The Woobey Queen

> Http://www.woobeyworld.com <http://www.woobeyworld.com>

>

Y'all keep smiling. :-) Butch http://www.AV-AT.com

 

 

 

[Guest guest]

Butch,

Once again thank you so much for the invalueable information that you so

freely share with all of us.

I found all you information in this post very helpful and enlightening.

Hope that you get the heart rate under control. Maybe I should say Get that

heartrate undercontrol!

Alexander sounds like a truly magical child. I could just see him evaluating

the situation and taking control .

Sandi

[Guest guest]

Howdy Sandi,

 

Butch,

> Once again thank you so much for the invalueable information that you so

> freely share with all of us.

>

 

My pleasure for sure and thanks.

 

 

> I found all you information in this post very helpful and enlightening.

>

 

I'm happy that you found the information to be of some value. :-)

 

Hope that you get the heart rate under control. Maybe I should say Get

> that

> heartrate undercontrol!

>

 

Thanks much .. its something I'm working on .. in addition to the normal

stress of basically starting a new life from step one .. I reckon I might be

doing the wrong forms of exercise too. I'm busting my rear end with lots of

strenuous work but probably not placing enough emphasis on normal

conditioning. I've lost weight and gained muscle mass since taking on this

land of ours but I'm not sure that is the right way to build endurance ..

walking at a face pace for an hour a day would probably do more for me than

would sawing trees, hauling logs and brush, moving furniture around and

humping boxes from one side of the garage to the other. ;-)

 

Alexander sounds like a truly magical child. I could just see him

> evaluating

> the situation and taking control .

>

 

Thankee ma'am and that he is. Best as I can recall .. most of the things I

learned in my early life were from watching others perform a task .. but he

figures out solutions to what he sees as problems without ever having seen

anyone do same. :-)

 

Sandi

>

 

Thanks for the nice note .. y'all have a good weekend .. and keep smiling.

:-)

 

Butch http://www.AV-AT.com