Bulgaria Claims Rose Crisis - Climate Change

[Guest guest]

Howdy Anya,

 

First .. lemme say that Climate Change is likely due to an increase in Hot

Air .. much of it originating from within the Beltway around Washington,

D.C. ;-)

 

 

> Don't know if I follow the climate change theory, so I'm hoping Butch

> can post after he reads this. I am intrigued by the Japanese rose

> capsules that make you smell like roses one week after you eat them.

> Very relevant to a current thread on Japanese customers for soap on the

> NP group.

>

>

>

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/lifestyle-bulgaria-roses.html?_r=1 & oref=slo\

gin

>

Lemme make a few line by line comments .. but first, as I told you off line

a while back .. the previous article you referred to the group .. on what a

great crop the Bulgarians expected this year .. was PR .. PR is what has

helped to keep an ailing Bulgarian Rose industry in the Black. They are in

a bitta trouble and getting out is not going to be as easy as was the

getting in. I've been on the phone with the Turkish folks on and off for

weeks .. they just completed a trip to Europe to negotiate/establish prices

and deal with pre-production agreements .. and there were Bulgarian

producers there too. The Turks and Bulgarians talk to each other a lot ..

they do not see themselves as being competitors fighting for a market ..

they are both producing less than the demand.

 

> With roughly 2 tonnes of annual production, Bulgaria is the world's second

largest producer of rose oil after Turkey.

 

Bulgaria produced roughly 1,200 kilos this year .. Turkey produced around

1,900 .. so only the second part of the above is true.

 

> But the villagers' race against the sun to pick the moist, pink flowers

that produce the oil is becoming more urgent as they say climate

change<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/globalwarming/index.htm\

l?inline=nyt-classifier>is

making the valley hotter and drier.

 

This is supposition .. Turkey and Bulgaria had a bad year last year ..

roughly 35% less than normal .. and they produced roughly 20% less than

normal this year .. but nobody can say that the decrease in production is

due to Climate Change .. my Turkish folks say that the up and down years

have been a norm since the Oldest Old Men can remember.

 

It is a fact that both countries had a nice crop of Roses this year .. but

the yield of oil was low .. thus, it took more than 4 metric tons to produce

a kilo of Rose Otto. Reason it was low .. as they state above .. it was

extremely hot and the Roses were, in fact, stressed. Because they are

affected by energy costs just as we are .. and they have to deal with

inflation (worker's wages) coupled with the need this year to use more

product to produce the Rose Otto .. the 2008 established prices are higher

than last year .. but they are not out of line .. there is no gouging. Will

these prices cause a lotta folks to go to lower cost Rose oil .. like those

produced in China, Russia and such? Absolutely! But some folks will not

have the luxury to do that and the Turks and Bulgarians are certain to sell

all they produce in any case.

 

> Bulgaria's rose oil, with its strong aroma that sweetens perfume from

brands such as Chanel and Dior, is considered by many in the cosmetics

industry to be the best in the world and costs as much as

> 6,000 euros ($9,413) a kg.

 

Not really true .. a bit of Bulgarian PR at work again .. but I give them

credit for doing a good job. This PR does not allow them to sell more Rose

Otto .. it allows them to get higher prices from those who are not in the

know .. and there are many outfits in that category .. though few are

European. As I have preached for 15 years, there is absolutely not

difference in the quality of a masterfully produced Turkish and Bulgarian

Rose Otto .. extracted from Damask Roses (Rosa damascena) .. when produced

by an experienced master distiller. The major difference is that one must

be a bit more careful when purchasing a Bulgarian product because the Mafia

is alive and well in Bulgaria .. they are ex-KGB who were left jobless after

the USSR dissolved and the Russian Federation cut their ranks .. they then

went into other shady enterprises. Caveat Emptor is a necessity when

dealing with the Bulgarians .. or the Russians for that matter.

 

Will they get 6,000 Euros this year .. some will get it but the norm for

Bulgarian this year " should be " a bit less .. around 5,800 Euros .. current

exchange makes that $9,226 .. the norm for Turkish this year should be

around 5,700 Euros.. or $9,067 .. these are FOB prices for bulk buys .. they

are not what y'all should expect to pay from most dealers for a single kilo

... though I will (as usual) be able to make some offers that can't be

refused. ;-) The price difference is NOT due to quality .. its due to

volume available for sale .. plus agreements with large buyers .. plus the

fact that prices for the Turkish product are not really Free Market prices

... they are established by the Board of Directors of an Association that is

semioffical in that it is controlled by a political party of the Turkish

gummit. One can now .. as in the past .. count on the Bulgarians waiting

for the Turks to fix their prices . . then establishing their prices a tad

higher.

 

> *** with 4 tonnes of petals yielding 1 kg of precious oil. In the 1980s

and 90s, when the climate was cooler and the roses more moist, the same

yield needed closer to 2.8 tonnes, said Nedkov.

 

Nonsense! There has never been a kilo of Rose Otto produced from even 3

metric tons of blossoms.

 

> (Antal) Adam said: his company encourages farmers in Afghanistan to plant

roses instead of poppies, buying up the harvest to curb heroin trade.

 

I can't find anything in English on Antel Adam but I am not inclined to

believe the above .. because there is no Afghan crop to buy up and there are

no farmers in Afghanistan who have turned from Opium Poppies to Roses ..

none. I will check this Antel Adam out and get back with y'all but for

now I conclude that it is commercial spin.

 

I'm still working with Sarah Chayes .. we are going to do a project this

Fall .. along with two Turkish friends (one a direct fire village producer

and one a commercial producer) I will be in Kabul in November. We are

consolidating plans for what we will produce in Turkey .. ship to

Afghanistan and install there. Financing will be in part from the Afghan

gummit but the lion's share will be from the Canadians. I'll update y'all

on the project when I have more firm data .. that is, after completing the

formal proposal. Anya has also been in contact with Sarah and has offered

assistance in a number of areas.

 

> " We blend oil from different countries. Like whisky, " said Adam. " The

stuff from Afghanistan is very promising. "

 

Promising as in .. its gonna be nice when they are able to export a gram or

two. That is how much Rose Otto Sarah's group is getting now from each

distillation .. the problem is they have the wrong kind of equipment. They

are getting some fine Hydrosol and that is what they are using for their

products .. but its not an efficient use of resources. My plans will allow

them to produce 3 or 4 .. maybe 5 kilos the first year .. they will be

restricted only by the availability of Rose blossoms and the road network ..

plus, of course .. security. Conditions in Afghanistan are now more

critical than they are in Iraq .. though you'll not see it in the news

because the media does not like reporting good news .. the beginning of the

end of organized operations by Al-qaeda in Iraq has begun .. but conditions

in Afghanistan have worsened. Pakistan is in one way or another a player

in the Afghan arena.

 

> *** farmers are also struggling with soaring energy costs and labor

migration.

 

True .. its hard to keep a feller down on the farm after he's seen Western

Europe. Bulgaria is now a full fledged member of the EU and they have new

opportunities for employment.

 

> There are not enough pickers, workers prefer to work in Germany and

France. And small farmers can get their family to pick roses, " said

Lissicharov.

 

True .. but I think they left out the word " NOT " between " can " and " get " .

Labor problems will probably persist .. population wise the birth rate in

Bulgaria is in a minus mode right now. The Bulgarian story is not all bad

... they are doing quite well now when compared to their days under the USSR

... but in the below link you will find this sentence .. " At the same time, a

rapidly ageing and declining population limits the potential for further

employment growth. " UNQUOTE

 

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/een/005/article_4326_en.htm

 

> For now, the Rose Valley shows a softer side to the country whose

corruption and organized crime will be evaluated in a European

Commission<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/e\

uropean_commission/index.html?inline=nyt-org>monitoring

report later this month.

 

This report will be just another bureaucratic exercise .. the Bulgarians

will clean up their act in time but not any time soon.

 

> " There are at least two different societies in Bulgaria. The one that will

be the subject of this report and the one here, " said Toon Streppel, a European

Parliament<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/e\

uropean_parliament/index.html?inline=nyt-org>official

in Bulgaria.

 

Though many Americans (especially the Conspiracy Theorists) believe this

statement could also apply to the U.S.A., its only because they have not

lived (or more importantly .. had to do business) in a Third World or

Emerging Market country. Comparing them to the U.S.A. is like comparing

rapists to traffic offenders. I turned 66 a few days ago .. if I start

counting at the age I graduated from HS, then MORE than half my adult life

has been spent in such countries .. I got used to their way of doing

business .. didn't have to like it .. just had to accept it.

 

 

>

> <http://anyasgarden.com/> - perfumes,

> aromatics, classes, consultation

>

>

<http://naturalperfumersguild.blogspot.\

com/>

>

>

>

 

Y'all keep smiling. :-)

 

Butch .. http://www.AV-AT.com <http://www.av-at.com/>

 

PS: During the last sale I had .. on Turkish Rose Absolute .. I told folks

that those who purchased would not be sorry. Fact is they were all

satisfied with the quality .. and the price. But they're gonna be even

more satisfied with the price when they see the prices for the 2008 crop.