Guest guest Posted December 13, 2006 Report Share Posted December 13, 2006 Jason et al, If we look closely at the numbers we see that 162 book at $50 each (a very conservative number, I think) equal $8100. If we divide $1,000,000 by that $8100 we get just over 123. This number represents the number of copies of this DVD necessary to make up the $1,000,000. Doesn't seen that hard to believe to me. Thomas Faculty Department of Complementary and Alternative Medicine John Burns School of Medicine University of Hawai'i Manoa Honolulu, HI www.sourcepointherbs.org Want to start your own business? Learn how on Small Business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 13, 2006 Report Share Posted December 13, 2006 Thomas, I am having a very hard time following your logic on this one. IMO, your math is not correct for the situation. First of all, you cannot even consider how many books are on the DVD as a factor in the equation, because no student would ever buy 162 books in one semester or year. Your estimation is based on an assumption that 1 DVD in 1 student's hand will translate into that student not buying 162 books in one year. Hopefully this is self-apparent as not being the statically correct. Moreover, as stated in a previous post, many of the books are not CM, therefore many of the books on the DVD would never have been purchased by the average student anyway. We really need to look at books on the DVD that translate into students not buying what they normally would. We have to look at how many students potentially own the DVD. Finally, we must look at how many books a DVD in the hands of a student would cost in sales. I believe my original estimate is still fairly correct. Meaning If 2 DVD are in the hands of 2 students, I believe that 8 books have the potential to not be bought. We should remember there are those with the DVD that will still buy the hardcopy or already have bought the required texts. So if 8 books are not bought from 2 DVD's (in one year), at $80 a book, that is a loss of $640 ($320 a DVD). That would have to make 3125 DVD's in circulation. (Over half the students). If there is 1000 DVD's in circulation and EVERY owner acted " immorally to the max " and they did buy 12.5 books then this would = 1 million $. If 50% of the 1000 decided to act in this " immoral " fashion then each person would not have to buy 25 books in a year to = 1 Million $. Another way to look at the numbers is this way: there are 7000 students. With many schools not even having this DVD, let us take a conservative hypothetical number that 25% of students own the DVD (which is probably in reality actually less than 10%). At $80 a book, all 1750 students would have to not buy 7.14 books for it to equal 1 million dollars. My estimation is based on every DVD in a students hand will cost 4 books not to be bought. Since I believe that 50% of students want hardcopies (or already own the book) I estimate 8 books per 2 DVDs. If my math is anywhere near correct, then there is another MAJOR leak somewhere else. I think more accurate numbers for this must be obtained. For example, the decline in bookstore sales in not surprising with Amazon selling more and more books. I know students that have not bought 1 book from the bookstore (they buy through other sources). I am not devaluing this problem. I am just not convinced that the piracy is causing as much damage as we think. But I do think it is detrimental to the advancement of spreading CM in the West, and that is what concerns me. If authors and publishers discontinue their efforts because of this act, then this is what is sad. That is why I believe (from the numbers and what I have seen in the schools first hand) the problem is multi-faceted. The DVD is one aspect and seemingly, the current scapegoat. I think lots of influences are at play here, i.e. teacher packets, and schools dumbing down subjects. I know students are buying more and more used books from students that drop out or quit the profession after not making it. Respectfully, - _____ On Behalf Of Wednesday, December 13, 2006 2:00 PM re: texbook piracy Jason et al, If we look closely at the numbers we see that 162 book at $50 each (a very conservative number, I think) equal $8100. If we divide $1,000,000 by that $8100 we get just over 123. This number represents the number of copies of this DVD necessary to make up the $1,000,000. Doesn't seen that hard to believe to me. Thomas Faculty Department of Complementary and Alternative Medicine John Burns School of Medicine University of Hawai'i Manoa Honolulu, HI thomas@sourcepointh <thomas%40sourcepointherbs.org> erbs.org www.sourcepointherbs.org Want to start your own business? Learn how on Small Business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 14, 2006 Report Share Posted December 14, 2006 Jason, Perhaps you are right with your math and the appearant leak = $$ for this semester. I stand corrected, perhaps. However, I want to point out that when someone purchases a DVD with 162 books on it, if my estimates were correct, then by purchasing the DVD a person has stolen $8100 worth of copywritten material. Whether or not you would have purchased all the books is immaterial, they have commited a felony. We don't know how long this has been available, although based on the downturn in sales it would appear to be recent. I agree with some of you other comments. Teacher packets, well maybe, but more interesting to me is that you would estimate that the average student would only purchase 4 books in a semester. This points to another point you made about dumbing down the education. And, this points to a SERIOUS problem with the profession/educational system. There are no guarentees of ever making any money in this field, but I feel confident in saying that if the education (starting with admission requirements) doesn't improve the whole this will go down the toilet. I will restrain myself for sinking further ....... Faculty Department of Complementary and Alternative Medicine John Burns School of Medicine University of Hawai'i Manoa Honolulu, HI www.sourcepointherbs.org Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 14, 2006 Report Share Posted December 14, 2006 _____ On Behalf Of Thursday, December 14, 2006 12:38 PM Re: texbook piracy Jason, Perhaps you are right with your math and the appearant leak = $$ for this semester. I stand corrected, perhaps. However, I want to point out that when someone purchases a DVD with 162 books on it, if my estimates were correct, then by purchasing the DVD a person has stolen $8100 worth of copywritten material. Whether or not you would have purchased all the books is immaterial, they have commited a felony. We don't know how long this has been available, although based on the downturn in sales it would appear to be recent. We need more information to make conclusions as such.. I bet the sales have been dropping for awhile. But you are right, this is a $8100 (+ or -) felony, but again this is a different issue, then actual loss of sales. (This is what we may call " perceived loss " and " actual loss " ). I agree with some of you other comments. Teacher packets, well maybe, but more interesting to me is that you would estimate that the average student would only purchase 4 books in a semester. This points to another point you made about dumbing down the education. And, this points to a SERIOUS problem with the profession/educational system. You are right, this is a dumbing down! Students are required to buy a few major texts in the beginning, but because of such student packets (etc) students are not required to buy much more. As we know teachers xerox pertinent chapters from books or just type up the condensed version, and hand it out. BTW, I am not saying that a student only buys 4 books a year. I am saying, that is what my estimation for the loss this DVD could incur! For example, when I was in school many people had copies of the Deadman & Maciocia CD-ROM, but I know that most of them still bought the book. Just having the DVD does not mean that the student will not buy anymore books. But my estimate was that if 2 people have the DVD between them about 8 books would not be purchased. Because I figure that 50% of the people (or 50% of books) will still be bought, because of either honesty, or just wanting the HARDCOPY! Just owning the DVD is no guarantee that a person will stop buying all their books! But as a rule students buy very little books, at least at the local college here. I think there are people (like myself) who seem to buy every book that comes down the pipe, but we are definitely the exception, not the rule. Most just don't read beyond what is required for the upcoming test and with predigested packets why should students bother reading the extra stuff. Even for nationals students don't study the text, they don't even own some of them, there are packets printed up that you read through or just jump onto TCM tests which has past questions ready for the students devouring. Pay a fee and you are in!... Sad indeed! - Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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