Text Book Piracy, RE: Jason's problem with the fuzzy math.

[Guest guest]

All,

 

The publisher numbers are key. Once way or another, regarless if sold

on-line or at discount, in bookstores or anywhere else, books come

from their publishers (provided they are not infringed). So, if the

publishers are seeing declines that outlie any prior trend, it is

close to certain that there is a new factor producing the new trend.

 

Jason's theory that the numbers are bogus because the sales declines

are from on-line discounting, etc., could be true if the substantive

numbers came only from the downstream levels (e.g: distribuor and

bookstores)or if the market were as limited as he sees it. Even then,

however, the decline would be so far from established trends as to be

suspicious.

 

The only reason to put a number on the losses was to establish for the

FBI that the infringement was not some penny ante student prank. No

one has intended or claimed to have produced a definitive damage

number. However, even if you only take Elsevier's estimate, it is not

peanuts and surely worthy of prosecution. Furthermore, without taking

the next year of my life off to communicate with the dozens and dozens

of publishers infringed (remember those biomedical texts?) the obvious

approach was to talk directly to the publishers most involved in CM

work and get the situation into the hands of law enforcement as

quickly and professionally as possible.

 

If you read my piece to the FBI closely, the bookstore numbers fall

under the category of " Tracing the Source, " we were looking for

trends in the distribution pattern that would indicate some

geographical information that might be of use in isolating a source.

I will say that it is, in my opinion, moving from east to west and has

influenced some places more than others. This, in fact, is reasonable

evidence (coupled as it is with physical evidence), of a

student-to-student transmission. Now that people are aware that there

may be consequences, I hope the virus-like transmission doesn't reach

as far as it might otherwise go. If it is in fact not reaching the

west coast, I'm pleased.

 

In the long run as more evidence is compiled, we will certainly see

that some of my suppositions are wrong. It may be that there were no

orders from here or there because there was no new class, or that a

store closed, etc. Obviously, I do not have the resources or skills

of an FBI agent and the best information will come from an

investigation by law enforcement.

 

We fully considered the likelyhood that the arrest of students who own

or distribute the pirate DVD would create ill will. The " I'm a poor

student " and " the publishers are ripping-us-off " meme's are certainly

out there. However, the decision to pursue this matter came to this

-- regardless of intention, regardless of numbers, regardless of what

anyone thinks of one author, publisher or another, a profession that

cannot protect its intellectual property will not survive.

Personally, as a member of the book trade, someone who has earned

money in the book business for close to 40 years, I felt that allowing

this to pass unreported would be a dereliction of my ethical

responsibilities.

 

Bob