Peak Oil By November ?!!! War, famine, pestilence and death, he said,

[Guest guest]

Peak oil' spells cataclysm for U.S., oil theorist warns

Sunday, August 21, 2005

ALEXANDER LANE

 

Think high gas prices are bad?

 

Get a load of what ex-oilman and ex-Princeton professor Kenneth

Deffeyes believes are following closely behind:

 

" War, famine, pestilence and death, " he said, eyes wide and voice

deep. " We've got to get the warning out. "

 

The threat? Peak oil.

 

The term, probably unfamiliar to most Americans, refers to the time

when the worldwide production of oil peaks and begins a rapid decline.

From then on, this incredibly efficient fuel source, which still costs

less than most bottled water, will be scarcer and more costly.

 

Highly respected sources, including the U.S. government, think that

day is distant, and most mainstream economists think it won't cause

much of a ruckus.

 

But Deffeyes says peak oil is coming in November, and could bring

humankind to the brink.

 

He is a devotee of former Shell geologist M. King Hubbert, who

correctly predicted U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.

Deffeyes is also the author of " Hubbert's Peak " (2001) and " Beyond

Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak, " which was published last spring.

 

He is among a cadre of peak-oil proponents who sketch out a

frightening near-term future in which the American way of life is

upended as the United States, China and other great nations scramble

after oil fields like desperate players in a game of musical chairs.

 

" He comes out of oil. He was born in oil, " said Julian Darley, an

energy analyst, fellow predictor of an imminent oil peak and founder

of the Post Carbon Institute, an Oregon think tank.

 

Deffeyes' point -- that the peak has either arrived or will very soon

-- is serious.

 

In the long term, the nation will compensate with clean-coal and

nuclear energy, along with renewable sources like wind and solar

power, Deffeyes says.

 

" It's the five-year time scale that I'm really scared about. " History

has demonstrated that the fear of a coming oil shortage, justified or

not, can be a powerful determinant of events. U.S. oil experts

predicted a " gasoline famine " just after World War I, prompting

Britain to combine three former provinces of the Ottoman Empire into a

new, oil-rich country that was to remain friendly to England.

 

It was named Iraq. 2005, Newhouse News Service

 

Alexander Lane is a staff writer for The Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J.

 

E-mail: alane

[Guest guest]

of course the mainstream peak oil ppl always soften it by saying " oh we'll have

nuclear or clean coal or renewables "

 

without oil, NONE of those work....

 

and, there's no such thing as clean coal

besides, coal will have its own peak...at the best case(promoted by the coal

companies)..200 years...(this is of course at current rate of use...)

others say 50 yrs of us coal is left

 

and, not even gonna get int onuclear...

 

 

rvijay <rvijay07

Aug 21, 2005 7:00 PM

 

Peak Oil By November ?!!! " War, famine, pestilence and

death, " he said,

 

Peak oil' spells cataclysm for U.S., oil theorist warns

Sunday, August 21, 2005

ALEXANDER LANE

 

Think high gas prices are bad?

 

Get a load of what ex-oilman and ex-Princeton professor Kenneth

Deffeyes believes are following closely behind:

 

" War, famine, pestilence and death, " he said, eyes wide and voice

deep. " We've got to get the warning out. "

 

The threat? Peak oil.

 

The term, probably unfamiliar to most Americans, refers to the time

when the worldwide production of oil peaks and begins a rapid decline.

From then on, this incredibly efficient fuel source, which still costs

less than most bottled water, will be scarcer and more costly.

 

Highly respected sources, including the U.S. government, think that

day is distant, and most mainstream economists think it won't cause

much of a ruckus.

 

But Deffeyes says peak oil is coming in November, and could bring

humankind to the brink.

 

He is a devotee of former Shell geologist M. King Hubbert, who

correctly predicted U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.

Deffeyes is also the author of " Hubbert's Peak " (2001) and " Beyond

Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak, " which was published last spring.

 

He is among a cadre of peak-oil proponents who sketch out a

frightening near-term future in which the American way of life is

upended as the United States, China and other great nations scramble

after oil fields like desperate players in a game of musical chairs.

 

" He comes out of oil. He was born in oil, " said Julian Darley, an

energy analyst, fellow predictor of an imminent oil peak and founder

of the Post Carbon Institute, an Oregon think tank.

 

Deffeyes' point -- that the peak has either arrived or will very soon

-- is serious.

 

In the long term, the nation will compensate with clean-coal and

nuclear energy, along with renewable sources like wind and solar

power, Deffeyes says.

 

" It's the five-year time scale that I'm really scared about. " History

has demonstrated that the fear of a coming oil shortage, justified or

not, can be a powerful determinant of events. U.S. oil experts

predicted a " gasoline famine " just after World War I, prompting

Britain to combine three former provinces of the Ottoman Empire into a

new, oil-rich country that was to remain friendly to England.

 

It was named Iraq. 2005, Newhouse News Service

 

Alexander Lane is a staff writer for The Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J.

 

E-mail: alane

 

 

 

 

 

To send an email to -

 

[Guest guest]

, fraggle <EBbrewpunx@e...> wrote:

> of course the mainstream peak oil ppl always soften it by saying " oh

we'll have nuclear or clean coal or renewables "

>

> without oil, NONE of those work....

>

> and, there's no such thing as clean coal

> besides, coal will have its own peak...at the best case(promoted by

the coal companies)..200 years...(this is of course at current rate of

use...)

> others say 50 yrs of us coal is left

>

> and, not even gonna get int onuclear...

>

 

 

We don't have the infrastructure in place for all to use Coal. Besides

witth global warming this is a serious concern. Also, we need to mine

5 times as much coal for this they say.

 

But peak oil by November ?!!! What I think is they are trying to warn

us is that one of the major oil wells can probably go down.

 

Vijay

[Guest guest]

well..after peak oil(lets assumin its november) it doesn't mean in december

there is no oil

it means it will have passed its peak of production, and enter a decline

its not so much running out, as not having enough available to keep our

economies(and hence our civilizations) going

oh..its gonna be interesting

 

 

rvijay <rvijay07

Aug 21, 2005 7:33 PM

 

Re: Peak Oil By November ?!!! " War, famine, pestilence and

death, " he said,

 

, fraggle <EBbrewpunx@e...> wrote:

> of course the mainstream peak oil ppl always soften it by saying " oh

we'll have nuclear or clean coal or renewables "

>

> without oil, NONE of those work....

>

> and, there's no such thing as clean coal

> besides, coal will have its own peak...at the best case(promoted by

the coal companies)..200 years...(this is of course at current rate of

use...)

> others say 50 yrs of us coal is left

>

> and, not even gonna get int onuclear...

>

 

 

We don't have the infrastructure in place for all to use Coal. Besides

witth global warming this is a serious concern. Also, we need to mine

5 times as much coal for this they say.

 

But peak oil by November ?!!! What I think is they are trying to warn

us is that one of the major oil wells can probably go down.

 

Vijay

 

 

 

 

 

To send an email to -