Guest guest Posted December 12, 2006 Report Share Posted December 12, 2006 By Jonathan Amos Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco A new model forecasts largely ice-free summers by 2040 Enlarge Image The Arctic may be close to a tipping point that sees all-year-round ice disappear very rapidly in the next few decades, US scientists have warned. The latest data presented at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting suggests the ice is no longer showing a robust recovery from the summer melt. Last month, the sea that was frozen covered an area that was two million sq km less than the historical average. " That's an area the size of Alaska, " said leading ice expert Mark Serreze. " We're no longer recovering well in autumn anymore. The ice pack may now be starting to get preconditioned, perhaps to show very rapid losses in the near future, " the University of Colorado researcher added. The sea ice reached its minimum extent this year on 14 September, making 2006 the fourth lowest on record in 29 years of satellite record-keeping and just shy of the all time minimum of 2005. 'Feedback loop' Dr Serreze's concern was underlined by new computer modelling which concludes that the Arctic may be free of all summer ice by as early as 2040. The new study, by a team of scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the University of Washington, and McGill University, found that the ice system could be being weakened to such a degree by global warming that it soon accelerates its own decline. " As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice, " explained Dr Marika Holland. " This is a positive feedback loop with dramatic implications for the entire Arctic region. " Eventually, she said, the system would be " kicked over the edge " , probably not even by a dramatic event but by one year slighter warmer than normal. Very rapid retreat would then follow. Sooner or later In one of the model's simulations, the September ice was seen to shrink from about 5.9 million sq km (2.3 million sq miles) to 1.9 million sq km (770,000 square miles) in just a 10-year period. By 2040, only a small amount of perennial sea ice remained along the north coasts of Greenland and Canada, while most of the Arctic basin was ice-free in September. " We don't think that state has existed for hundreds of thousands of years; this is a dramatic change to the Arctic climate system, " Dr Holland told the BBC. Dr Serreze, who is not a modeller and deals with observational data, feels the tipping point could be very close. " My gut feeling is that it might be around the year 2030 that we really see a rapid decline of that ice. Now could it occur sooner? It might well. Could it occur later? It might well. " It depends on the aspects of natural variability in the system. We have to remember under greenhouse warming, natural variability has always been part of the picture and it always will be part of the picture. " The average sea ice extent for the entire month of September this year was 5.9 million sq km (2.3 million sq miles). Including 2006, the September rate of sea ice decline is now approximately -8.59% per decade, or 60,421 sq km (23,328 sq miles) per year. At that rate, without the acceleration seen in the new modelling, the Arctic Ocean would have no ice in September by the year 2060. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 12, 2006 Report Share Posted December 12, 2006 Yep, good bye polar bears , nice knowing you. The Valley Vegan............heartwerk <jo.heartwork wrote: By Jonathan Amos Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco A new model forecasts largely ice-free summers by 2040Enlarge ImageThe Arctic may be close to a tipping point that sees all-year-round ice disappear very rapidly in the next few decades, US scientists have warned. The latest data presented at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting suggests the ice is no longer showing a robust recovery from the summer melt. Last month, the sea that was frozen covered an area that was two million sq km less than the historical average. "That's an area the size of Alaska," said leading ice expert Mark Serreze. "We're no longer recovering well in autumn anymore. The ice pack may now be starting to get preconditioned, perhaps to show very rapid losses in the near future," the University of Colorado researcher added. The sea ice reached its minimum extent this year on 14 September, making 2006 the fourth lowest on record in 29 years of satellite record-keeping and just shy of the all time minimum of 2005. 'Feedback loop' Dr Serreze's concern was underlined by new computer modelling which concludes that the Arctic may be free of all summer ice by as early as 2040. The new study, by a team of scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the University of Washington, and McGill University, found that the ice system could be being weakened to such a degree by global warming that it soon accelerates its own decline. "As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice," explained Dr Marika Holland. "This is a positive feedback loop with dramatic implications for the entire Arctic region." Eventually, she said, the system would be "kicked over the edge", probably not even by a dramatic event but by one year slighter warmer than normal. Very rapid retreat would then follow. Sooner or later In one of the model's simulations, the September ice was seen to shrink from about 5.9 million sq km (2.3 million sq miles) to 1.9 million sq km (770,000 square miles) in just a 10-year period. By 2040, only a small amount of perennial sea ice remained along the north coasts of Greenland and Canada, while most of the Arctic basin was ice-free in September. "We don't think that state has existed for hundreds of thousands of years; this is a dramatic change to the Arctic climate system," Dr Holland told the BBC. Dr Serreze, who is not a modeller and deals with observational data, feels the tipping point could be very close. "My gut feeling is that it might be around the year 2030 that we really see a rapid decline of that ice. Now could it occur sooner? It might well. Could it occur later? It might well. "It depends on the aspects of natural variability in the system. We have to remember under greenhouse warming, natural variability has always been part of the picture and it always will be part of the picture." The average sea ice extent for the entire month of September this year was 5.9 million sq km (2.3 million sq miles). Including 2006, the September rate of sea ice decline is now approximately -8.59% per decade, or 60,421 sq km (23,328 sq miles) per year. At that rate, without the acceleration seen in the new modelling, the Arctic Ocean would have no ice in September by the year 2060. Peter H All new Mail "The new Interface is stunning in its simplicity and ease of use." - PC Magazine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 12, 2006 Report Share Posted December 12, 2006 unfortunately, i can see the majority of people going " so? " most folks don't get the big picture, while others are gleefully awaiting the reduction and elimination of the sea ice..more places t o explore for oil! and the hunt for the northwest passage went on for centuries...here it is, all coming true... >heartwerk <jo.heartwork >Dec 11, 2006 11:39 PM > > Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' > > >By Jonathan Amos >Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco > > > >A new model forecasts largely ice-free summers by 2040 > > >Enlarge Image > >The Arctic may be close to a tipping point that sees all-year-round >ice disappear very rapidly in the next few decades, US scientists >have warned. > >The latest data presented at the American Geophysical Union Fall >Meeting suggests the ice is no longer showing a robust recovery from >the summer melt. > >Last month, the sea that was frozen covered an area that was two >million sq km less than the historical average. > > " That's an area the size of Alaska, " said leading ice expert Mark >Serreze. > > " We're no longer recovering well in autumn anymore. The ice pack may >now be starting to get preconditioned, perhaps to show very rapid >losses in the near future, " the University of Colorado researcher >added. > >The sea ice reached its minimum extent this year on 14 September, >making 2006 the fourth lowest on record in 29 years of satellite >record-keeping and just shy of the all time minimum of 2005. > >'Feedback loop' > >Dr Serreze's concern was underlined by new computer modelling which >concludes that the Arctic may be free of all summer ice by as early >as 2040. > >The new study, by a team of scientists from the National Center for >Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the University of Washington, and McGill >University, found that the ice system could be being weakened to such >a degree by global warming that it soon accelerates its own decline. > > " As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic >and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the >rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice, " explained Dr >Marika Holland. > > " This is a positive feedback loop with dramatic implications for the >entire Arctic region. " > >Eventually, she said, the system would be " kicked over the edge " , >probably not even by a dramatic event but by one year slighter warmer >than normal. Very rapid retreat would then follow. > >Sooner or later > >In one of the model's simulations, the September ice was seen to >shrink from about 5.9 million sq km (2.3 million sq miles) to 1.9 >million sq km (770,000 square miles) in just a 10-year period. > >By 2040, only a small amount of perennial sea ice remained along the >north coasts of Greenland and Canada, while most of the Arctic basin >was ice-free in September. > > " We don't think that state has existed for hundreds of thousands of >years; this is a dramatic change to the Arctic climate system, " Dr >Holland told the BBC. > >Dr Serreze, who is not a modeller and deals with observational data, >feels the tipping point could be very close. > > " My gut feeling is that it might be around the year 2030 that we >really see a rapid decline of that ice. Now could it occur sooner? It >might well. Could it occur later? It might well. > > " It depends on the aspects of natural variability in the system. We >have to remember under greenhouse warming, natural variability has >always been part of the picture and it always will be part of the >picture. " > >The average sea ice extent for the entire month of September this >year was 5.9 million sq km (2.3 million sq miles). Including 2006, >the September rate of sea ice decline is now approximately -8.59% per >decade, or 60,421 sq km (23,328 sq miles) per year. > >At that rate, without the acceleration seen in the new modelling, the >Arctic Ocean would have no ice in September by the year 2060. > > > > > > >To send an email to - > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 12, 2006 Report Share Posted December 12, 2006 Very true Fraggle. Jo - " fraggle " <EBbrewpunx Tuesday, December 12, 2006 6:58 PM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' > unfortunately, i can see the majority of people going " so? " > most folks don't get the big picture, while others are gleefully awaiting the reduction and elimination of the sea ice..more places t o explore for oil! and the hunt for the northwest passage went on for centuries...here it is, all coming true... > > > >heartwerk <jo.heartwork > >Dec 11, 2006 11:39 PM > > > > Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' > > > > > >By Jonathan Amos > >Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco > > > > > > > >A new model forecasts largely ice-free summers by 2040 > > > > > >Enlarge Image > > > >The Arctic may be close to a tipping point that sees all-year-round > >ice disappear very rapidly in the next few decades, US scientists > >have warned. > > > >The latest data presented at the American Geophysical Union Fall > >Meeting suggests the ice is no longer showing a robust recovery from > >the summer melt. > > > >Last month, the sea that was frozen covered an area that was two > >million sq km less than the historical average. > > > > " That's an area the size of Alaska, " said leading ice expert Mark > >Serreze. > > > > " We're no longer recovering well in autumn anymore. The ice pack may > >now be starting to get preconditioned, perhaps to show very rapid > >losses in the near future, " the University of Colorado researcher > >added. > > > >The sea ice reached its minimum extent this year on 14 September, > >making 2006 the fourth lowest on record in 29 years of satellite > >record-keeping and just shy of the all time minimum of 2005. > > > >'Feedback loop' > > > >Dr Serreze's concern was underlined by new computer modelling which > >concludes that the Arctic may be free of all summer ice by as early > >as 2040. > > > >The new study, by a team of scientists from the National Center for > >Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the University of Washington, and McGill > >University, found that the ice system could be being weakened to such > >a degree by global warming that it soon accelerates its own decline. > > > > " As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic > >and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the > >rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice, " explained Dr > >Marika Holland. > > > > " This is a positive feedback loop with dramatic implications for the > >entire Arctic region. " > > > >Eventually, she said, the system would be " kicked over the edge " , > >probably not even by a dramatic event but by one year slighter warmer > >than normal. Very rapid retreat would then follow. > > > >Sooner or later > > > >In one of the model's simulations, the September ice was seen to > >shrink from about 5.9 million sq km (2.3 million sq miles) to 1.9 > >million sq km (770,000 square miles) in just a 10-year period. > > > >By 2040, only a small amount of perennial sea ice remained along the > >north coasts of Greenland and Canada, while most of the Arctic basin > >was ice-free in September. > > > > " We don't think that state has existed for hundreds of thousands of > >years; this is a dramatic change to the Arctic climate system, " Dr > >Holland told the BBC. > > > >Dr Serreze, who is not a modeller and deals with observational data, > >feels the tipping point could be very close. > > > > " My gut feeling is that it might be around the year 2030 that we > >really see a rapid decline of that ice. Now could it occur sooner? It > >might well. Could it occur later? It might well. > > > > " It depends on the aspects of natural variability in the system. We > >have to remember under greenhouse warming, natural variability has > >always been part of the picture and it always will be part of the > >picture. " > > > >The average sea ice extent for the entire month of September this > >year was 5.9 million sq km (2.3 million sq miles). Including 2006, > >the September rate of sea ice decline is now approximately -8.59% per > >decade, or 60,421 sq km (23,328 sq miles) per year. > > > >At that rate, without the acceleration seen in the new modelling, the > >Arctic Ocean would have no ice in September by the year 2060. > > > > > > > > > > > > > >To send an email to - > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 12, 2006 Report Share Posted December 12, 2006 and don't forget santa..... man..thats the way tell all the kids "because of the greedy actions of adults, santa and the reindeer are homeless, the elves drowned. sorry, no christmas this year, no toys" man oh man, could i make a holiday cartoon out of that "Santa meets Open Water" peter VV Dec 12, 2006 10:53 AM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' Yep, good bye polar bears , nice knowing you. The Valley Vegan............ History repeats itself and each time the price gets higher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 13, 2006 Report Share Posted December 13, 2006 What no Hogfather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The Valley Vegan................fraggle <EBbrewpunx wrote: and don't forget santa..... man..thats the way tell all the kids "because of the greedy actions of adults, santa and the reindeer are homeless, the elves drowned. sorry, no christmas this year, no toys" man oh man, could i make a holiday cartoon out of that "Santa meets Open Water" peter VV Dec 12, 2006 10:53 AM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' Yep, good bye polar bears , nice knowing you. The Valley Vegan............ History repeats itself and each time the price gets higher Peter H All new Mail "The new Interface is stunning in its simplicity and ease of use." - PC Magazine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 13, 2006 Report Share Posted December 13, 2006 Hi Peter I am looking forward to that - it looks good. Shame it's on the same time as Doctor Who - but it is repeated. Jo - peter VV Wednesday, December 13, 2006 7:54 PM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' What no Hogfather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The Valley Vegan................fraggle <EBbrewpunx wrote: and don't forget santa..... man..thats the way tell all the kids "because of the greedy actions of adults, santa and the reindeer are homeless, the elves drowned. sorry, no christmas this year, no toys" man oh man, could i make a holiday cartoon out of that "Santa meets Open Water" peter VV Dec 12, 2006 10:53 AM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' Yep, good bye polar bears , nice knowing you. The Valley Vegan............ History repeats itself and each time the price gets higher Peter H All new Mail "The new Interface is stunning in its simplicity and ease of use." - PC Magazine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 13, 2006 Report Share Posted December 13, 2006 he lives in the Castle of bones Bones float... er he can ride one of his pigs never was really into Discworld... sorry peter VV Dec 13, 2006 11:54 AM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' What no Hogfather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The Valley Vegan................fraggle <EBbrewpunx wrote: and don't forget santa..... man..thats the way tell all the kids "because of the greedy actions of adults, santa and the reindeer are homeless, the elves drowned. sorry, no christmas this year, no toys" man oh man, could i make a holiday cartoon out of that "Santa meets Open Water" peter VV Dec 12, 2006 10:53 AM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' Yep, good bye polar bears , nice knowing you. The Valley Vegan............ History repeats itself and each time the price gets higher Peter H All new Mail "The new Interface is stunning in its simplicity and ease of use." - PC Magazine History repeats itself and each time the price gets higher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 13, 2006 Report Share Posted December 13, 2006 Well, I expect that it will be on Sky Two, or Three a day or so later, so I may wait a day or two. I have a horrible feeling that it will be a disapointment. I am reading the book again in the vain hope that it makes me feel christmassy........... The Valley Vegan.............jo <jo.heartwork wrote: Hi Peter I am looking forward to that - it looks good. Shame it's on the same time as Doctor Who - but it is repeated. Jo - peter VV Wednesday, December 13, 2006 7:54 PM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' What no Hogfather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The Valley Vegan................fraggle <EBbrewpunx (AT) earthlink (DOT) com> wrote: and don't forget santa..... man..thats the way tell all the kids "because of the greedy actions of adults, santa and the reindeer are homeless, the elves drowned. sorry, no christmas this year, no toys" man oh man, could i make a holiday cartoon out of that "Santa meets Open Water" peter VV Dec 12, 2006 10:53 AM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' Yep, good bye polar bears , nice knowing you. The Valley Vegan............ History repeats itself and each time the price gets higher Peter H All new Mail "The new Interface is stunning in its simplicity and ease of use." - PC Magazine Peter H Send instant messages to your online friends http://uk.messenger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 13, 2006 Report Share Posted December 13, 2006 Hi Peter I don't know anyone who feels Christmassy yet this year! Jo - peter VV Wednesday, December 13, 2006 8:14 PM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' Well, I expect that it will be on Sky Two, or Three a day or so later, so I may wait a day or two. I have a horrible feeling that it will be a disapointment. I am reading the book again in the vain hope that it makes me feel christmassy........... The Valley Vegan.............jo <jo.heartwork wrote: Hi Peter I am looking forward to that - it looks good. Shame it's on the same time as Doctor Who - but it is repeated. Jo - peter VV Wednesday, December 13, 2006 7:54 PM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' What no Hogfather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The Valley Vegan................fraggle <EBbrewpunx (AT) earthlink (DOT) com> wrote: and don't forget santa..... man..thats the way tell all the kids "because of the greedy actions of adults, santa and the reindeer are homeless, the elves drowned. sorry, no christmas this year, no toys" man oh man, could i make a holiday cartoon out of that "Santa meets Open Water" peter VV Dec 12, 2006 10:53 AM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' Yep, good bye polar bears , nice knowing you. The Valley Vegan............ History repeats itself and each time the price gets higher Peter H All new Mail "The new Interface is stunning in its simplicity and ease of use." - PC Magazine Peter H Send instant messages to your online friends http://uk.messenger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted December 14, 2006 Report Share Posted December 14, 2006 i feel fragglely off and on when my world stops collapsing around me fer, oh, ten seconds er so jo Dec 13, 2006 6:57 PM Re: Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt' Hi Peter I don't know anyone who feels Christmassy yet this year! Jo History repeats itself and each time the price gets higher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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