IS GLOBAL WARMING A MYTH?

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Last Updated: Thursday, 20 April 2006, 11:36 GMT 12:36 UK

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A load of hot air?

By Simon Cox and Richard Vadon

BBC News

 

 

 

[image: A mountain yellow-legged frog at Yosemite National Park] Amphibians

are dying out the world over

 

*Hardly a day goes by without a new dire warning about climate change. But

some claims are more extreme than others, giving rise to fears that the

problem is being oversold and damaging the issue.*

 

How much has the planet warmed up over the past century? Most people reckon

between two and three degrees. They are not even close. The real figure,

according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is 0.6C.

 

It's not surprising most people get it wrong. We are bombarded by stories

warning us that global warming is out of control. The most extreme warn us

we will be living in a tropical Britain where malaria is rife and Norfolk

has disappeared altogether.

 

Dr Hans Von Storch, a leading German climate scientist and fervent believer

in global warming, is convinced the effect of climate change is being

exaggerated.

 

[image: Sheep grazes in drought-stricken Portugal] Drought or flood

" The alarmists think that climate change is something extremely dangerous,

extremely bad and that overselling a little bit, if it serves a good

purpose, is not that bad. "

 

Why do the stories that reach the public focus only on the most frightening

climate change scenarios? We decided to find out for a BBC Radio 4

documentary.

 

In 2005 the scientific journal Nature published the first results of a study

by Climateprediction.net, a group of UK climate scientists. They had been

testing what effect doubling the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the

atmosphere would have on temperature.

 

The vast majority of their results showed that doubling CO2 would lead to a

temperature rise of about 3C. Such an increase would have a major impact on

the planet. The scientists of Climateprediction.net say that is what you

would expect their model to produce, and many other scientists have produced

similar results. However a tiny percentage of the models showed very high

levels of warming - the highest result was a startling 11C.

 

*Attention grabbing*

 

When it came to selling the story to journalists, the press release only

mentioned one figure - 11C.

 

*If journalists decide to embroider on a press release without referring

to the [research], we can't as scientists guard against that*

Dr Myles Allen

The ensuing broadsheet headlines were predictably apocalyptic, from " Global

warming is twice as bad as previously thought " to " Screensaver weather trial

predicts 10C rise in British temperatures " .

 

They may be dramatic but they are also wrong. Dr Myles Allen, principal

investigator at Climateprediction.net, blames the media.

 

" If journalists decide to embroider on a press release without referring to

the paper which the press release is about, then that's really the

journalists' problem. We can't as scientists guard against that. "

 

But is the media solely to blame? We asked several climate scientists to

read the paper and the press release publicising it. All were critical of

the prominence given to the prediction that the world could heat up by 11C.

 

" I agree the 11C figure was unreasonably hyped. It's a difficult line for

all scientists to tread, as we need something 'exciting' to have any chance

of publishing... to justify our funding, " one scientist wrote us.

 

*Not easy being green*

 

Even government agencies have been criticised for overselling climate

change. When the Environment Agency publicised research on global warming

over the next 1,000 years, it predicted cataclysmic change; temperature

rises of 15C and sea levels increasing by 11m. The agency said action was

needed now.

 

[image: Pedestrian walks past graffiti which says 'climate change

kills'] Emotive

issue

But this isn't how the study's lead author, Dr Tim Lenton sees it. His

research shows if you did nothing for a century you would still only get a

fraction of the worst case scenario. He says there's consternation among

scientists at the presentation of their science by the Environment Agency.

Scientists would have liked to have seen a more balanced picture presented.

 

Clive Bates, head of environment policy at the agency, says it's simply a

case of Dr Lenton not understanding the way the media works. " He was

involved in signing off the press release, there is nothing in there that is

actually incorrect. "

 

The difficulty for climate scientists is that their work has a political

dimension. Take the study carried out by researchers at the Cloud Forest

Preserve in Costa Rica. It claimed a link between climate change and frog

extinctions. The lead scientist Dr Alan Pounds said: " Disease is the bullet

killing frogs, but climate change is pulling the trigger. "

 

[image: Golden frog]

 

 

Climate culprit for frog

deaths<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4602116.stm>

The press had a field day, as it seemed to show global warming was causing

damage now. Indeed the beautiful and now extinct Golden toad was christened

the first victim of climate change.

 

Dr Pounds' team claim global warming is producing ideal conditions for a

fungus to thrive which causes the disease, which then kills off the frogs.

Critics say there's a problem with this theory. The fungus doesn't need high

temperatures to wipe out frogs. It is killing frogs in different areas with

different climates.

 

When I contacted Dr Pounds to discuss his research, he admitted they did not

know how the fungus was affected by climate but was confident they had shown

as statistical relationship.

 

" We wouldn't have proposed the hypothesis that we did had we not found such

a strong relationship; we are not saying that's the only possible

mechanism, " he said.

 

*US sceptics*

 

We have spoken to many frog specialists who are sceptical of Dr Pounds'

paper. Normally it wouldn't really matter which frog expert was wrong.

 

[image: Don't Walk sign in New York City] Planet pays for US love of cars?

But there is another group who are involved - climate change sceptics in the

United States. They are already criticising Dr Pounds' research to show you

can't trust climate scientists or the journals they write in.

 

Dr Cindy Carey, a frog specialist from Colorado University, warns that

climate scientists have to be more sceptical of their own research.

 

" A bad paper that gets a lot of publicity could backfire considerably and

they'll say see scientists are trying to convince people of climate change

on the back of bad data. "

 

All of the climate scientists we spoke to fervently believe global warming

is being caused by human activity. Many agree there's also a major problem

with alarmism. As one scientist said: " If we cry wolf too loudly or too

often, no-one will believe us when the beast actually comes for dinner. "

 

------------------------------

 

*Overselling Climate Change will be broadcast on BBC Radio 4 on Thursday 20

April at 2000 BST. Or you can use the Listen Again service on the Radio 4

website, linked on right of this page.*