(JP) Time to act on climate change

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http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/features/science/20061227TDY04001.htm

 

Time to act on climate change

Graham Fry / Special to The Yomiuri Shimbun

 

Thanks to Cool Biz and the like, awareness of global

warming is high among Japanese people. According to a

recent opinion poll, 66 percent are greatly concerned

about it. But there is little sense of crisis.

 

It is true that the biggest effects of climate change

are long-term. The greenhouse gases that are emitted

now will stay in the atmosphere for hundreds of years,

and their effects will be long-lasting. However, the

average temperature of the earth has already risen by

0.7 C, and we can already see the effects. If we

continue as we are, by 2050, the probability of

dangerous climate change (a temperature change of 2 C

to 5 C) is over 90 percent. This would have

implications for human health, agriculture and

economies, as well as for politics and security. For

example, we can expect more floods and

desertification, an increase in tropical diseases such

as malaria, and the need to construct new coastal

defenses to protect cities such as London and Tokyo

against rising sea levels.

 

We can prevent this. But only if we take determined

action in the next 10 to 15 years. According to a

recent report to the British government, if we invest

1 percent of our gross domestic product now, we can

avoid damage of between 5 and 20 percent to world GDP

in the future. This will require the development of

new technologies. Governments and the private sector

should work together to promote research and

development in promising areas, such as carbon capture

and storage and fuel cells.

 

As well as developing new technologies, it is

necessary to ensure that existing technology is more

widely used. That means creating an economic system

whereby reducing emissions is rewarded and raising

them carries a penalty--in other words, a price for

carbon. This can be achieved through taxation,

emissions trading or regulation. It makes an

international trade in carbon possible, thus

generating finance for the transfer of clean

technology to the developing world. Between today and

2030, over 20 trillion dollars will be spent on new

energy infrastructure, much of it in emerging

economies. The nature of this investment will

determine the world's emissions for decades to come.

 

We should also recall that 18 percent of the world's

emissions arise from deforestation. Policies are

therefore urgently required to protect existing

forests and regenerate those that have been lost.

 

At present, both global warming and the emission of

greenhouse gases are proceeding faster than predicted.

In Australia, Europe, the United States and many other

countries, climate change has become one of the main

issues of political debate. In Europe, a carbon market

is already functioning, following the introduction of

emissions trading in 2005. In California, Gov. Arnold

Schwarzenegger recently announced a plan to cap

emissions and introduce an emissions trading system.

In November, Australian Prime Minister John Howard

proposed the establishment of a task force to consider

a national emissions trading system.

 

Japan, needless to say, is at the forefront of both

international negotiations and technological

development. It leads the world in energy efficient

technologies and hybrid vehicles. At the 2005 G-8

summit (under Britain's presidency), Japan agreed to

receive a report on climate change under its own

presidency of the Group of Eight major nations in

2008.

 

In addition to the efforts of government, there is a

great deal that we as individuals can achieve--by

acting on initiatives such as Cool Biz, choosing

energy efficient appliances and being conscious of the

way in which we use energy.

 

We cannot wait any longer. The time for action is now.

Fry is the British ambassador to Japan.

 

(Dec. 27, 2006)