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Exclusive: No ice at the North Pole

Polar scientists reveal dramatic new evidence of climate change

 

By Steve Connor, Science Editor

Friday, 27 June 2008

 

 

 

Peter Wadhams: Every time I visit the Arctic, the ice gets thinner

Scientists warn Arctic sea ice is melting at its fastest rate since records

began

More on Climate Change

 

 

 

 

It seems unthinkable, but for the first time in human history, ice is on course

to disappear entirely from the North Pole this year.

 

The disappearance of the Arctic sea ice, making it possible to reach the Pole

sailing in a boat through open water, would be one of the most dramatic – and

worrying – examples of the impact of global warming on the planet. Scientists

say the ice at 90 degrees north may well have melted away by the summer.

 

" From the viewpoint of science, the North Pole is just another point on the

globe, but symbolically it is hugely important. There is supposed to be ice at

the North Pole, not open water, " said Mark Serreze of the US National Snow and

Ice Data Centre in Colorado.

 

If it happens, it raises the prospect of the Arctic nations being able to

exploit the valuable oil and mineral deposits below these a bed which have until

now been impossible to extract because of the thick sea ice above.

 

Seasoned polar scientists believe the chances of a totally ice-free North Pole

this summer are greater than 50:50 because the normally thick ice formed over

many years at the Pole has been blown away and replaced by huge swathes of

thinner ice formed over a single year.

 

This one-year ice is highly vulnerable to melting during the summer months and

satellite data coming in over recent weeks shows that the rate of melting is

faster than last year, when there was an all-time record loss of summer sea ice

at the Arctic.

 

" The issue is that, for the first time that I am aware of, the North Pole is

covered with extensive first-year ice – ice that formed last autumn and

winter. I'd say it's even-odds whether the North Pole melts out, " said Dr

Serreze.

 

Each summer the sea ice melts before reforming again during the long Arctic

winter but the loss of sea ice last year was so extensive that much of the

Arctic Ocean became open water, with the water-ice boundary coming just 700

miles away from the North Pole.

 

 

The diminishing polar ice

 

Courtesy of NOAA / NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research

 

This meant that about 70 per cent of the sea ice present this spring was

single-year ice formed over last winter. Scientists predict that at least 70 per

cent of this single-year ice – and perhaps all of it – will melt completely

this summer, Dr Serreze said.

 

" Indeed, for the Arctic as a whole, the melt season started with even more thin

ice than in 2007, hence concerns that we may even beat last year's sea-ice

minimum. We'll see what happens, a great deal depends on the weather patterns in

July and August, " he said.

 

Ron Lindsay, a polar scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle,

agreed that much now depends on what happens to the Arctic weather in terms of

wind patterns and hours of sunshine. " There's a good chance that it will all

melt away at the North Pole, it's certainly feasible, but it's not guaranteed, "

Dr Lindsay said.

 

The polar regions are experiencing the most dramatic increase in average

temperatures due to global warming and scientists fear that as more sea ice is

lost, the darker, open ocean will absorb more heat and raise local temperatures

even further. Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University, who was one of

the first civilian scientists to sail underneath the Arctic sea ice in a Royal

Navy submarine, said that the conditions are ripe for an unprecedented melting

of the ice at the North Pole.

 

" Last year we saw huge areas of the ocean open up, which has never been

experienced before. People are expecting this to continue this year and it is

likely to extend over the North Pole. It is quite likely that the North Pole

will be exposed this summer – it's not happened before, " Professor Wadhams

said.

 

There are other indications that the Arctic sea ice is showing signs of breaking

up. Scientists at the Nasa Goddard Space Flight Centre said that the North Water

'polynya' – an expanse of open water surrounded on all sides by ice – that

normally forms near Alaska and Banks Island off the Canadian coast, is much

larger than normal. Polynyas absorb heat from the sun and eat away at the edge

of the sea ice.

 

Inuit natives living near Baffin Bay between Canada and Greenland are also

reporting that the sea ice there is starting to break up much earlier than

normal and that they have seen wide cracks appearing in the ice where it

normally remains stable. Satellite measurements collected over nearly 30 years

show a significant decline in the extent of the Arctic sea ice, which has become

more rapid in recent years.

 

 

What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know, it's what we know for sure

that just ain't so.

- Mark Twain