Arctic Ice Cap to Vanish in 80 Years

dasa · January 4, 2003

Arctic ice cap to vanish in 80 years, study says

Jonathan Leake

The Times, London

The ice cap covering the North Pole will vanish in less than 80 years as climate change melts it away, say British meteorological researchers.

The area covered by ice has shrunk by 20 per cent since the 1950s and its average winter thickness has reduced by 40 per cent since 1970. From detailed measurements of the rate of melting, the Met Office's Hadley Centre for monitoring climate change predicts the ice-cap will disappear around September 2079.

The Met Office research, to be published next year, assumes emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will continue to rise at their current rate. Many believe this will happen since the U.S. rejected the Kyoto climate treaty that would have cut emissions. Canada ratified the treaty Monday.

Geoff Jenkins, head of climate change prediction, said only a few icebergs would be left. "Our figures suggest that virtually all the ice will be gone," he said.

Even if the world reduced emissions by the maximum possible, it would only give a few years reprieve, says the Met Office.

"The greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere mean we will keep getting warmer for decades, whatever we do," said Mr. Jenkins. "Cutting emissions is important, but the effects will come too late to save the polar ice cap."

The loss of the ice cap will open up the Northwest Passage and enable ships to save thousands of kilometres on journeys between Europe and the Far East.

It could also change weather patterns. The larger expanse of open sea would increase evaporation and rainfall, possibly causing wetter summers in Europe. It might also allow more plankton to grow, thus boosting fish stocks.

For other wildlife, however, the change could be disastrous. Polar bears and seals would be hit hard because they rely on floating ice to hunt and breed.

"The north polar wildlife is unique, but it is going to have to adapt fast if it is to survive," said Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University.

The thinning of the ice has already hampered some expeditions to the pole. David Mill, a Briton, had to be rescued last May after finding his way blocked by thin ice.

The melting of the North Pole will not raise sea levels as all the ice is floating. There are, however, fears the temperature increases could melt Antarctica, the southern ice cap. This sits above sea level on a buried continent so melting would sharply raise sea levels.

January 6, 2003

Hollow Earth Theory

dasa · January 7, 2003

Antarctica 'melting for 10,000 years'

There is new evidence parts of the Antarctic ice sheet have been naturally melting for thousands of years.

The research suggests the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been contributing water to the ocean for the last 10,000 years.

Scientists analysed loose rocks to find out when they were dropped by the melting glaciers.

And if melting carries on at the same pace, within another 7,000 years an area of around 360,000 square miles will have disappeared.

The research was led by John Stone, associate professor of Earth and space sciences at the University of Washington. it is published in this week's edition of the journal Science.

Prof Stone said it was still not known if the melting process was being speeded up by a warming of the oceans caused by humans.

However, because much of the bedrock under the ice is below sea level, the ice sheet could be particularly susceptible to any future thinning and warming up of the oceans around its edges.

The ice sheet contains enough water to raise global sea levels by about five metres, or 16-17 feet.

But Prof Stone warned: "A rapid melting event that released even a small fraction of this amount could have disastrous consequences for coastal regions."

The study states that measuring changes in the ice sheets are major challenges for modern glaciology.

Story filed: 19:07 Thursday 2nd January 2003