What is the significance of India's election?

[krsna]

The significance of India's election

 

 

By Soutik Biswas

BBC News Online correspondent in Delhi

 

 

 

Vajpayee: The longest serving non-Congress PM

All eyes are on India as the world's largest democracy embarks on a marathon general election beginning on Tuesday.

The country's 14th national vote is significant for a host of reasons.

 

It comes at a time when India is no longer seen as a hesitant and nervous player on the global scene.

 

The economy is expected to grow more than 8% this year thanks to a booming farm sector and a strong showing in the services industry.

 

The country's foreign exchange reserves have swelled to over $100bn and the stock market has recorded its biggest annual rise in over 10 years. Inflation and interest rates are low.

 

Peaceful backdrop

 

This is the first election in almost two decades that is not taking place against the backdrop of serious national anxiety about terrorism or the possibility of war with nuclear-armed neighbour Pakistan or an economic downturn.

 

There are no nationwide issues in these elections

 

Political scientist Ashutosh Varshney

It is also the first time that a government, not run by Congress, the country's grand old party, has completed five years in office and is making a fresh bid for power.

 

A right-of-centre coalition of 22 parties, led by the ruling Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is seeking a second consecutive term in office - and harbours big ambitions.

 

"The BJP-led coalition is trying to consolidate its position to the point where it can claim the mantle of being the natural centre of gravity of Indian politics," says Pratap Bhanu Mehta who teaches politics at Harvard University.

 

Congress test

 

Analysts say that this could also turn out to be a make-or-break election for the Congress party which has ruled India for 45 years since independence.

 

INDIA VOTES

Voting on 20, 26 April and 5, 10 May

Counting of votes on 13 May

675 million eligible to vote

543 MPs elected for five years

1 million voting machines

Log up to five votes a minute

"If its performance declines substantially, it could be the end of the party," says Mr Mehta.

 

Analysts feel that the Congress has not been able to capitalise on the failings of the BJP-led government.

 

 

They say the party is hampered by internal feuds and a leadership crisis - the party's near-total dependence on a member of India's famous Nehru-Gandhi family to lead them keeps out other promising leaders.

 

A slew of pre-election opinion polls in the Indian media give Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) the lead over Congress.

 

The astute, grandfatherly and consensual 79-year-old, a part-time poet, is the BJP's main vote winner.

 

The party seems to be projecting Mr Vajpayee as the last great pan-Indian leader - an untainted statesman who rises above the country's murky politics.

 

India shining?

 

Mr Vajpayee is pushing what his party spin doctors describe as the "feel-good factor" among people because "India is shining" - a reference to a government advertising campaign.

 

 

Sonia Gandhi's Congress party insists its economic record is strong

The BJP is confident of cashing in on robust economic growth and Mr Vajpayee's peace initiatives with Pakistan.

 

Congress, which actually kick-started economic reforms in the early 1990s, says the benefits of liberalisation have benefited only a few.

 

They could be right - a third of a billion Indians still live on less than $1 a day.

 

India's economic growth still does not help absorb the huge numbers of people required to tide over its vast unemployment problem.

 

So the BJP's 'India Shining' campaign is unlikely to swing ballots in its favour across vast swathes of a diverse country.

 

For example, in the water-starved southern state of Tamil Nadu, local caste issues and non-availability of drinking water are likely to dominate over the country's record economic growth or Mr Vajpayee's foreign policy initiatives.

 

This is an election where the battle will be fought constituency by constituency

 

Political scientist Pratap Bhanu Mehta

So regional parties will hold the key to forging a winning coalition, however much the BJP would prefer to mop up the maximum number of seats itself.

 

The BJP and the Congress are directly pitted against each other, with no regional party in the fray, in only 103 of the 543 constituencies in just six out of 28 states.

 

"There are no nationwide issues in these elections. The national result will be an aggregation of state-level results. State level issues will determine the national results," says Ashutosh Varshney, who teaches political science at the University of Michigan.

 

'Intriguing'

 

The lesson of the 14th general election may well be the further rise of regional parties at the expense of the mainstream parties.

 

Pratap Bhanu Mehta says the outcome "may still produce intriguing possibilities".

 

"This is an election where the battle will be fought constituency by constituency. The exact distribution of seats across regions, rather than simply the aggregate will matter a great deal," he says.

 

Pre-poll surveys during the week leading up to the elections are hinting at a wafer thin majority for the BJP-led coalition or even a hung parliament.

 

The election will answer some questions critical to the BJP's future as a party and a coalition leader.

 

"Will impressive economic growth be sufficient enough for the BJP to craft a new social coalition? Or are the gains of growth distributed so unevenly that there still will be substantial dissatisfaction with the BJP and impede its ability to craft a broader social coalition?" wonders Pratap Bhanu Mehta.

 

India will know the answers on 13 May when the suspense is over and the results are declared.

 

 

[krsna]

Violence mars early India voting

 

 

Hundreds of millions are expected to take part

Sporadic violence has marred early voting in India's general election.

At least one soldier was reported killed and six civilians injured when suspected militants attacked two polling stations in Jammu and Kashmir.

 

Polls opened in 13 states and three union territories on Tuesday, kicking off the world's largest election.

 

Over 670 million people can vote in four main phases staggered over three weeks, partly to allow the deployment of two million security officers.

 

 

I came to vote because wasting one's ballot in a democracy is a sin

 

Mohammad Afzal

Kashmiri voter

 

 

Election timetable

 

Another factor in the election is the logistics of providing electronic voting machines for the first time at every single polling station.

 

Despite early reports of a few minor electronic glitches, the voting machines seem to have been working well on the whole.

 

 

Much media attention has been paid to the struggle between the two main parties - the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, which leads the ruling coalition, and Congress, the main opposition party.

 

But BBC South Asia correspondent Adam Mynott says that for many - if not most voters - it will be local matters that weigh on their minds when they enter the polling stations.

 

Usual enthusiasm

 

The incidents of violence in Jammu and Kashmir occurred minutes after polls opened.

 

INDIA VOTES

 

Voting 20, 26 April and 5, 10 May

Counting of votes on 13 May

675 million eligible to vote

543 MPs elected for five years

1 million voting machines

Log up to five votes a minute

Police told the Associated Press news agency that suspected militants had shot and killed a soldier guarding a polling station in Rafiabad village, some 60km (37 miles) north of the summer capital, Srinagar.

 

In another incident, six civilians, including two officials, were hurt when a bomb exploded outside a polling station in nearby Bandipore, according to AP.

 

Police said suspected Islamic militants who have been threatening to disrupt the elections in the state were responsible for the explosion.

 

Turnout in India's general elections has traditionally been high - some 60% of voters have turned out in the past - although initial reports suggested polling had generally got off to a slow start on Tuesday.

 

"I came to vote because wasting one's ballot in a democracy is a sin," said Mohammad Afzal, the first voter at the polling station in the Kashmiri village of Chainabal.

 

But in Bangalore in the south early voters were frustrated by teething problems with voting machines.

 

"I came in to vote at 0630 and it's an hour now. How long can I wait? I want to vote and go back home," one woman told the BBC.

 

 

Test

 

Analysts say Tuesday's vote will be a test.

 

 

Congress is challenging the BJP's touting of a feel-good factor

"The first round is administratively very important," Ashutosh Varshney of the University of Michigan told BBC News Online.

 

"If they are conducted peacefully, that will set a trend. And if violent, the first round will make a doubling of administrative effort necessary to keep peace."

 

Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee called the election five months early, hoping to cash in on a "feel-good factor".

 

Mr Vajpayee can point to an economy set for 8% growth this year and recent peace moves with Pakistan as his administration's key achievements.

 

These have helped give the ruling BJP-led alliance a lead in many opinion polls, although these have often proved unreliable and the fight may be closer than earlier expected.

 

Congress, led by Sonia Gandhi, says the growth has not benefited the rural poor and is unimpressed by the peace process with Pakistan.

 

The party also plays on the BJP's Hindu nationalism, saying it threatens the country's secular tradition.

 

The last day of voting is 10 May, with results due on 13 May.